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Saturday, December 27, 2008

IBD 100

The IBD again outperformed the overall market, down 0.5% There were not many huge gainers, and only one big decliner. IBD again mentioned today the lackluster performance of this latest rally, and the lack of leadership, but pount out that the same situation was present in March of 2003, when the last bull run began.

GMCR was the biggist gainer. It was forming a cup with handle base (despite the double bottom, it is not a true double bottom base. IBD uses weekly charts to determine the type of base). The handle, however, has a nasty higher than average volume down day, and has been going up since then. his makes it a flawed handle. The breakout point is the high of the handle, 38.44. Unless this gets a big boost in volume, I think any breakout attempt here would be prone to failure.

CFFN was the second biggest gainer, and is going through a pretty long consolidation. Last Friday it bounced off support and is slowly making it's way to the breakout point, 47.44. This also needs a big boost in volume, and if it gets it it will probably move fast. CMF doesn't show a lot of accumulation during the cosolidation, so this thing may have trouble drawing flies.

EC was the biggest decliner, and why it is on the IBD 100 is beyond me. It recently IPO'd, has very little trading history, doesn't get much volume, and is in a down trend. Maybe ther is something in the fundamentals that IBD really likes, or they just couldn't find enough decent stocks to fill up 100 slots.

PNRA was the second biggest decliner. I was in the process of making a handle in a cup and handle base (yes, another false double bottom). It got a couple of high volume selling days during the handle, exactly what you don't want to see, and is damaged goods now.

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