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Wednesday, December 17, 2008


Fundamentally, gold may make sense as an investment, but technically, I wouldn't touch it until it gets out of the down trend it is stuck in. It has been making a series of lower highs-lower lows, and both the 50dma and 200dma are descending. It could have a very tough time with the 200dma here, so until it can get through there it's a no-go. However, it did establish a higher low on it's last pullback, so we just might be seeing a trend change. Wait for confirmation.

The market has given back about half of yesterday's Fed rally. Take a look at the TNX and TYX is yoou want to see something scary. The TNX is down 10%, an icredibly huge move, and the TYX is down 8%. This is not your run-of-the-mill bear market. Something is going on here that is not very comfortable. The SPX has established a low of 895, and looks like it might be having trouble with 905, which is about where we gapped down to at the open. That is a pretty narrow range, and one of those levels is likely to fall. Energy is the only positive sector, as OPEC has annouced a 4.6 million barrel per day production cut. That is double what was anticipated, and non-OPEC producers are not likely to be able to make up the difference. Utilities are lagging, and financials are about in the middle.

There are several new highs: RGLD,VRX, E, ACET, DCM, SPX, VITA, PAR, and CWT, which is the only breakout.

On the earnings sheet, LNN announced earnings this morning, and are down about 3%. NDSN is scheduled to announce today after market close.

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