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Sunday, January 11, 2009


This was a post I had planned for this morning, but internet connections being what they have been lately, I post when I can. I have been trying to get a sense of the market direction, and in all the charts I look at, I see a real desire for the market to go up, but there just aren't the buyers coming in to push it up. Looking at the weekly chart of the VIX, it is pretty clear that 37.50 is an important pivot point . which has been tested from above. Either we bounce off it, or go through it to retest the long term trend line. Both MACD and weekly stochastics are pointed downward, but show signs they may reverse.

The daily chart shows much more upward momentum than the weekly chart. There is a zone of resistance just above 37.50, and we arre in it now. Stochastics are pointed up , MACD has crossed over and reversed, and it looks like this might have trouble breaking the 200dma.

Short term, it sure looks like the market is going to drop. IBD now has it's market pulse to "rally under pressure", even though there hasn't been a lot of high volume selling. However, the lack of leadership in the market, and the seeming lack of buying interests, means we might just have another down leg here. 857 is the level I will be watching on the SPX, if it holds we will probably go back up, if not then bombs away.

1 comment:

googler said...

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