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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Monday, January 5, 2009

No Decision

Today was the first real trading day of 2009, and we got some very strange and unexpected results. This is the chart of the day, the yield on the 30 year treasury, up 8% (the yield on the 10 year was up 3%). Is the "treasury bubble" bursting?

Volume was a little lower than expected, and not much was accomplished. We did stay above 918,which looks like it is going to be an important pivot. The 50dma is now critical support. The big money boys are not ready to tip their hands yet.

The Dow Industrials were the weakest of the major indexes, and the closest to breaking through support, but did close above. Again, lower than expected volume. Despite the rush out of treasuries, that money didn't come piling into equities.

The Nasdaq also tested it's pivot point. Both the SPX and the Nasdaq closed the day in the upper half of the day's range, so I would seem that selling pressure was not that great.

The Russell 2000 was where the strength was today, although it also retested it's pivot. If this leads, I expect a pretty decent rally. If not, we'll probably have another fizzle like the last two.


Here are the sector ETF's, with energy taking the lead on a big bounce in oil. Financials were weak, and other than a decent move in utilities, nothing much happened.

It's frustrating not to be able to follow the market on a minute by minute basis like I usually do, you really get a feel for what's happening. Unbelievably, I couldn't get a decent internet connection until my fourth try, which didn't come until just after market close. Sometimes Monday's just suck.

I'll have the new highs update shortly.

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