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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tuesday New Highs

Tuesday new highs, sorted by industry. SPSN is an error in the finviz database, and there could be others.

The high volume advancers on the relative strength list.


The high volume decliners from the same list.

I went to download earnings report data from the WSJ website, but the data was not there. I don't know if there is a temporary problem or if they are removing it from the site, but if I can't download the data, it is really going to cause a problem in tracking earnings. If it is gone for good, I will have to find another source.

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Goodbye Quarter One

Blogger is having trouble with my charts, and I suspect it's on their end. The Russell 2000 chart would not go at all, so I'm giving up on it and going with 4 charts today. The SPX is in the process of establishing a new range, and perhaps by coincidence, these levels happen to coincide with the fibonacci retracements of the January high to the March low (the 68% level is right in between the two bottom support lines). The SPX got a bounce off the decline from yesterday, but not decisively so, volume was weak, and there was a nasty sell off in the last half hour, bringing us back below 804. Yesterday CCI gave us a sell signal, but it has not been confirmed by either RSI or MACD, one good reason to ignore technical indicators.

The Nasdaq has appears to have a pivot at 1550, and pretty important resistance at 1587. Rising MACD (but declining histogram), and rising RSI are bullish, but a nasty selloff today, closing in the lower half of the day's range.


A big volume drop off in the Dow industrials, but there does seem to be support around the 50dma. GM, on the verge of bankruptcy, is weighing heavily here, I wouldn't be surprised to see it replaced soon.


XLE took a nasty reversal, ending up being the weakest sector, despite a reversal in oil. The market won't go far with this lagging.

APOL reported after hours, beat estimates, but is down 4% in after hours trading.

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COOL

COOL appears to be reversing a down trend, has had a recent upswing in average volume, and a big volume increase today. I don't have much information on this, but it must be getting somebody's attention.

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ADY

Here is another straight off the bottom breakout, and looks like it is going to start laboring from here. Nice volume surge of late, but it is declining.

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WPI


WPI broke out of a nice pattern, but thanks to a price spike last month, it didn't hit the new high alert in time for a decent buy point. This pulled back pretty sharply going into the close, but did close in the top half of the day's range. I still don't know what the catalyst was for this move.

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Possible Breakouts

Here a a couple of stocks that made big moves intraday, apparently on news that I can't find. WPI broke out past the breakout point (puprle line), hit a new 52 week high, and is pulling back. It did all this within the span of a few minutes.

COOL is howing much the same type of action, but not getting the huge increase in volume that WPI got.
Here is a 15 minut chart of COOL (WPI looks much the same). It did nothin g after the open, then got a sudden burst of volume and made a huge move up. I am very reluctant to buy breakouts if I don't have a pretty clear idea what the catalyst is, so caution is the word here.

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Reversal In XAU

XAU, gold and silver miners, was lagging the market early, but reversed about half an hour ago and is making a sharp move up. I don't know what the catalyst for this move is yet.

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Tuesday Bounce


Despite yesterday's big drop, the light volume gave us a clue that there was no panic selling, setting up today's bounce. Yesterday afternoon we bunce right off 780 just before the close. 790 is now the critical support area, and 804 is the big kahuna of resistance. XLF, XLK, and the Nasdaq are the relative strength, XLB, XLY, XAU, and the Russell 2000 relative weakness. Treasury yields are headed down, but show signs of a possible reversal.

There are 11 new highs so far. Two of them to look at are ADY and LINC. We'll be watching APOL after the close when it reports. The leading stocks of the schools groups (excluding LINC) appear to be building the right sides of bases.

There is nothing on the earnings list reporting today.





I was going through Youtube videos last night and found this one from the day after the FOMC decision. Rick Santelli mentions an "unusual" amount of call activity an hour or so ahead of the Fed decision, one of my pet peeves. Especially with FOMC decisions, there seems to be a problem with news leaking early and certain elect few getting to front run the trade. It's kind of funny how Liesman doesn't "get it".

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Monday, March 30, 2009

Monday New Highs

Monday's new highs. PMI was a bad print on Finviz, it is nowhere near a new high, ROH is an acquisition.

The high volume advancers on the relative strength list.


The high volume decliners on the same list.

APOL is reporting after market close tomorrow.

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Light Volume Selling

The U.S. auto industry took one step closer to nationalization this weekend, as the CEO of GM was forced out, and President Obama has moved in to call the shots. The market responded accordingly, selling off, but on low volume. The 50dma did not provide support, but it does appear that 775 is going to become a new pivot point. CCI has given a sell signal, so we may have some more downside to go.

Again there were virtually no areas of strength. Health care got blasted the least. The Nasdaq fell on low volume, and the price relative has reversed, so the Nasdaq is once again outperforming. Let's see if this leads to anything.

There seems to be support for the Russell 2000 just below 420 (as the 50dma moves to 419). The price relative line here is moving up. If the Russell has relative strength, it could mean that this is a pullback in an uptrend, rather than a reversal of trend.

Financials again took a big hit, right down to the 50dma. There is god-awful resistance at 9.60, a pivot around 8.60, and some pretty important support just below 8. If volume keeps dropping off (or staying where it is) we should get a fairly orderly pullback, but more bad news here could send this down to test the March low. And I haven't heard much in the way of good news.

The U.S. Dollar index, nearly back to where it was before the last FOMC meeting. If it gets through the 50dma and go on to make a higher high, it might be time to panic, because I don't have a clue what Bernanke can do now to stop it. If it bounce off thee 50dma and heads for the 200dma, then it's rally time.

I think it is dawning on the administration just how serious our situation is. unmfortunately, they don't seem to know what to do about it, as there efforts to "unclog credit" don't seem to be working. I wonder, has it occured to them that "clogged credit" might not be the problem?

The new highs update will be up in a couple of hours.

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DLTR

DLTR dropped big on an earnings miss in February. One thing I noticed back in the bull market in 2006-2007 was that often, a stock in an uptrend that got hit by an earnings miss would sell off for a couple of weeks, reverse, and resume the uptrend. This fell for 8 trading days before reversing, and only took about a month to get back to where it was. It broke out today to a new high on relatively light volume. I haven't seen this much in the bear market, mainly because there are few stocks in an uptrend, but it sure is an interesting phenomenon.

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Monday Morning Apocalypse


All the talk of "stimulus" and "recovery" was squished this morning as GM and Chrysler edge closer to bankruptcy and/or government takeover. 804 fell on the SPX right at the open, and we have so far established a low at 785. Naturally, the dollar has shot up again, and is close to gaining back the FOMC induced losses it had a couple of weeks ago. Bernanke is running out of both ammunition and time, and he might just be sitting helplessly watching us fall into a deflationary depression. XLF is leading down, XLI a close second, with XLV and XLU showing relative strength. Treasury yields are dropping, the VIX is rising, and panic is again in the air. So I will be watching carefully for a reversal.

There are 3 new highs so far, with no breakouts. I have nothing confirmed to report today.

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Money As Debt

A commenter, Eddie, brought up a video entitled "Money As Debt", a really nice video illustrating how fractional reserve banking works, and how debt is used to create money. It is 47 minutes long, and the unsplit version can be found on Google video. I was able to watch it last night, and haven't had time to really think about it, so instead I will give the readers and assignment. Watch the video, then read this post from the Oil Drum, and consider a few questions:

1. What is "fiat" money?
2. What is the intrinsic value of gold?
3. Oil is traded internationally, yet all transactions are done in one currency. Which one, and why?
4. Why was it imperative that Saddam Hussein be removed from power?
5. Who benefits the most from inflation? Who the least?


Let's see if we can get some discussion on this, and I'll post on it (probably next weekend).

Also, it is time for "Idiot of the week" nominations, and I have no candidates yet.

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Stocks To Watch This Week

There are 4 stocks, one from the relative strength list, 3 from the earnings list, that have confirmed reporting dates this week. APOL is from the relative strength list. I have pointed out before that the education services group has been weakening, and APOL is probably the most important component of this group. This got a nice bounce off the 200dma but is hitting resistance at the 50dma. Volume in the recent upmove has been very light. About the best case scenario for this is a gap up over the 50dma when it reports.

AZZ has made a huge move since coming off a bottom earlier this month. It is still well under the 200dma and is right up against resistance now. The trend in earnings for this is down, although still positive, so if this get a nice bump on earnings it could make a move toward the 200dma, if not it will probably go into a cosolidation right around here.

LNN is in the farm machinery group and has been absolutely trashed since the crash in commodities. Earnings growth is mixed, with the last quarter showing slowing growth. It's hard to bellieve it will take off from here, but it could be grinding out a bottom. If earnings keep growing, and commodities start rising again, this could be a longer term trade.


SHLM has a definite downtrend in earnings, but has a bottoming pattern forming here. A gap above the 50dma would be nice, otherwise this is going to hit severe resistance. It depends on whether or not this can reverse the trend in earnings growth.

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Spreadsheets Updated

Yesterday I finished the relative strength spreadsheet and said I would upload it, which I promptly forgot to do. It is now uploaded.

The earnings spreadsheet has been updated, color coded, and uploaded. Last quarterly update took me an entire weekend to complete, but since I have learned a little excel programming, I have cut that in half. I did notice that I missed one I had meant to delete, TAYD, so it will survive the cut for another quarter.

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Lessons In Capitalism From The People's Republic

Earlier this week I linked to a release by the central bank of China. Basically it was a statement that called for reforms of the international financial system. Yesterday I read it in it's entirety, and while it is about as exciting as reading an FOMC statement, it struck me that (a) there was no attempts at obfuscation through the "innovative" use of language, in other words they said exactly what they meant, and (b) they seem to be losing patience, particularly with the U.S. and Europe.

I'll quote some of the better passages, and add my comments.

In the midst of the current financial crisis, the needs for major reform of the global financial system and global financial stability framework have been increasingly recognized.

The first line of the statement. They detail the reforms done to date, then end the first paragraph with this sentence:

All these efforts will help to fend current crisis and future risks. However, we also note that several issues with respect to the financial regulatory framework have not received adequate attentions. In this note, we would like to explore these issues and provide relevant suggestions.

In other words, you haven't done enough, so it's up to us to help you out.

In terms of financial regulation philosophy, some developed countries have been heavily reliant on self-regulation of the marketplace, believing in “minimal regulation is the best regulation”. In fact, the financial institutions implicated in the Enron and WorldCom debacles and the liquidity crisis troubling some financial institutions in the early stage of the current crisis should have impelled regulators to upgrade supervisions. However, authorities have failed to take much-needed systematic actions. One of the most important reasons for this omission is the conviction that market can correct itself, which led to the overlook of financial sector vulnerabilities posed by the profit-seeking nature of financial institutions. The evolution of the crisis demonstrated that due to the profit-driven nature of market players, market forces, if unchecked, will lead to asset bubbles and ultimately a disastrous market clearing in the form of a financial crisis like the current one, hence wreaking great havoc to global finance and world economy.

How about that? Right off the back they bring up Enron and Worldcom (even calling them "debacles"). I'm getting the feeling these guys aren't goinmg to mince words.

Under the current regulatory model, only deposit-taking financial institutions and conventional financial products with obvious externalities are regulated, while near-bank entities and OTC products are subject to little, if any, supervision.

Not to mention any names **cough**AIG**cough**.

Moreover, the lack of coordination among regulatory authorities has also fostered regulatory arbitrage possibilities. As a result, financial institutions are able to circumvent rigorous regulations and maximize abnormal returns. Different types of arbitrage have hastened the rapid development of near-bank entities and OTC products, and let hedge funds enjoy the treatments from offshore financial centers.

They nail it here. One ot the reasons that Henry Paulson, when he was still at Goldman-Sachs, insisted that the leverage limits had to be done away with was that investment banks would lose business to overseas competition, who had no limits. We now know how that ended.

One ancient Chinese philosopher once said, “(w)e should self-examine ourselves three times daily.” This epitomizes the oriental philosophy on the importance of self-criticism in improving oneself. In analyzing the root causes of and drawing lessons from the current crisis, such spirit is sorely needed. Only by looking inward with this spirit, can we draw the right lessons and avoid being blindsided. Only with the right lessons learned, can far-reaching reforms begin. Recently, there have been some blaming games, which intend to hold others responsible for the on-going difficulties. Such lack of remorse does not help in examining the flaws in the existing financial regulatory system.

IBD says it's all Jimmy Carter's fault. Maybe we can find a way to blame Millard Fillmore, then everybody's off the hook.

Though some made efforts to address issues, most are reluctant to take a serious crack at the problems with an excuse of “(i)f it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The cost of waiting for the system to break has turned out to be tremendous. Against this backdrop, we should begin with an attitude of self-criticism while addressing the challenges of financial regulatory reform.

"Tremendous" is some of the strongest language they use, and it is an understatement. Try "devastating" or "apocalyptic".

Some regulatory agencies do not have enough professionals with practioners’ experience and hence are lack of sufficient understanding of the market developments, especially the systemic impacts of financial innovations. As a result, some supervisors turned a blind eye and were not sensitive to problems in structured products such as CDOs and derivatives such as CDS, and the shadow banking system reflected in the off-balance activities, including the critical rating methodologies for structured products.

Here we do the opposite. You go to work for a regulatory agency, such as the FDIC, learn the ins and outs of rugulations, find the loopholes, then go to work for one of the institutions that you were at one time regulating. So the really smart guys learn to "game" the system.

The business model of issuer-paying for services has rendered the rating process with conflicts of interest and the major rating agencies irresponsibly gave many structured products high ratings before the crisis. During the crisis, the reversal of market conditions have forced the rating agencies to lower the ratings of many financial products, which led to massive asset markdowns and exacerbated the severity of the crisis.

Our view is that the financial institutions should conduct independent examination of risks, not simply delegate the duty to the rating agencies.

They avoid using the word "fraud", but they are clearly unhappy about the "pay for ratings" system.

Evidence abounds that boards of directors at some systemically important financial firms in the US were rendered as a “gentlemen’s club”, which rubber-stamp all major decisions sponsored by the management. Often times, the independent non-executive directors (INEDs) did not have meaningful expertise or training in financial services sector. As a result, the board is unable to provide strategic direction for the firm’s operations and effective guidance and backing for risk management and internal control. Cases also reveal that at some too-big-to-fail institutions, the risk management professionals were beholden to business people. This has led to lack of effective check and balance mechanism, which tolerated excessive risk-taking in pursuit of short-term rewards.

Management was motivated by short-term barometers such as quarterly results and year-end bonus. The pro-cyclical compensation structure, which rewards short-term results, doesn’t help in restraining aggressive risk-taking. In addition, decisions for succession planning and appointment of Chairman/CEO was sometimes made not on candidates’ well-rounded qualifications and merits but on factors not consistent with the interests of the shareholders and the firm’s long-term viability.

The Chinese have found the basic flaw in too many Western business entities: to short a time horizon. The Chinese think ahead in term of years or even decades, we can't see past the next quarter. That leads to short term profits at the expense of long term health.

Maybe the new capatalists in China can teach us a thing or two. For some reason, we in the West have come to believe that "deregulation" means "allowing criminals to run rampant". And the Chinese are calling "B.S." on it.

"Out of the mouths of babes...."

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Saturday, March 28, 2009

Earning Summary Week of Mar 21

There were 3 stocks from the earnings sheet reporting last week. SNX reported a quarter of decelerating growth, and RBN and DXR reported a quarter of negative growth. RBN has had 4 staright qaurters of slowing growth, and would have been removes had it reported before I updated the list. We will see how it does this quarter, but it is going to need a really good quarter to stay on.

The sheet is updated, i am currently doing the color coding, a tedious pricess which probably won't be done until early tomorrow. The new relative strength list is done and should be up momentarily.

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Relative Strength Scans





The results of this week relative strength scan. Gold miners, auto parts retailers, and oil refiners are starting to dominate the list. The average for volume per million shares for this week was 13452, just a bit lower than the typical average of around 14000.

These were removed as being acquisitions: SGP, ROH, DNA, DMRC, CYCL, CVTX, ZICA

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IBD 100

It seems I have found another source for IBD, a little out of the way, but no trouble on Saturday mornings, and the Monday IBD is the only one I buy consistently. So I'm back in the saddle with the IBD 100 posts. The "Inside the 100" column, one of the most useful column in the whole paper", metions again the lack of leadership in this rally, and the IBD 100 again lagged the market. They do mention that leadership tends to show up in the first 13 weeks of a rally, if it lasts that long.

DMND was last week's biggest gainer, and is also an addition to the earnings spreadsheet (a coincidence. The earnings list does not consider technical factors at all). This is a poorly formed double bottom base. Last week's rise was quick, but hit rsistance at the breakout point. Volumne, CMF, and price relative do not give hints that a breakout is imminent. This will likely consolidate for a while.

AIPC was the second biggest gainer (and also an addition to the earnings list). Last Friday it looked like it was going to pull back to the 50dma, didn't quite make it, and bounced up and out to a new high. This is one of those high growth, very small companies that can rack up big gains in a rally. How big can a pasta company get? Remember HANS? How big could a fruit juice company get?

NCIT was last week's biggest decliner. last friday it appeared to be building the right side of a base, but it collapsed, broke two moving avergaes, and is still under the 200dma. I don't know what the catalyst for the collapse was, but there wasn't a lot of warning.


NFLX was the second biggest decliner, and it's decline was pretty mild. the only problem I see here is a boken trend line, but I wouldn't put too much into that as long as it stays above the 50dma. Price relative is weakening a bit, a common theme among leading stocks from last week.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Friday New Highs

Friday's new highs, with industry and relative volume.

The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.


The high volume decliners from the same list.

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Friday Wrap

The Dow industrials, weekly. Is this rally weakening? Stochastics says no, but PPO says we've gone up far awfully fast.

832 looks like it wants to be a new poivot point on the SPX. This whole zone between 804 and 857 is going to be a minefirld of resistance, and we felt it today. Financials, which were in the middle of the pack early, accelerated and led to the downside late, for the second time this week. Nothing was particularly strong today, the selling was pretty much across the board. Volume dropped like a rock, though, so there clearly isn't a lot of selling pressure. Yet.



A big droppoff in volume on the Nasdaq as well, but it was weak again today. MACD is showing signs of reversal, and it is in the area where it reversed last.

I thought the january low might be an important pivot on the Russell 2000, but it seems to be ignoring it (along with the 50dma). The Russell is where I usually find clues about where the market is headed, and it's not saying a damn thing right now.


Here is stockcharts' perfchart for the sector ETF's since the rally began 16 days ago. XLF is up almost 50%, which means either all is wel now or there is a whole lot of short covering going on. No real surprises here, XLB's strength is probably due to gold miners.

Today's low volume is a good sign in that as we encounter resistance, although there is a reluctance to buy, there isn't enormous selling, either. The SPX is up about 20%, not at all unusual in a bear market rally. If this is indeed a bottom forming, it could be weeks before we know for sure.

I'll have the new highs update shortly.

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SNX

There weren't any breakouts today, and the new highs were mostly stocks that I've already covered, but SNX caught my attention today. It is from the earnings list and reported yesterday.
What is interesting about this is that, while it is in a long term down trend, it is trying to reverse it, putting in a short bottom pattern back in November-December. If this reversal holds, this will be a first stage base, and could lead to a long uptrend.

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Quarterly Earnings Spreadsheet Update

These are the editions to the earnings spreadsheet. All have at least one quarter of triple digit growth, most have more than one. Not all have accelerating growth, but in this environment any growth is good. There were several that also got my attention, but I am going to wait until I have another quarter's worth of data before putting them on.


AIPC, AIRT, APSG, BBG, CKSW, CTGX, DMLP, DMND, FPO, GPIC, IGTE, KGS, MTRX, PSMT, SOHU, TNDM


The spreadsheet should be completely updated sometime on Sunday.

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Profit Taking

I mentioned last night that we were getting into an area of price congestion between 804 and 857 (804 is the red line, 857 the purple line at the top, and the blue line is 818, a former pivot point that may or may not be significant now). There is so far nothing indicating today is anything more than profit taking, but we will have to pay attention. XLE and XLY are leading down, XLV is barely positive, and XLF, for once, is in the middle of the pack.


This certainly isn;t much of a surprise. The FOMC induced rally (and drop in the dollar) is running out of steam. Yoy can bet that Bernanke is pulling out what hair he has left out as he just can't get this sucker to quit going up (US dollar, 10 day 15 minute).

China's central bank is slamming western regulators for missing the "warning signs" of the financial meltdown. I'm getting the feeling China is losing patience with this stuff aand might be ready to take their ball and go home.

There are 12 new highs so far, as of yet no new breakouts. I will have another update on the earnings list later this morning.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Thursday New Highs

Thursday's new highs, sorted by industry. this is the most we've had since I began tracking them. Click on the picture for better readability.

The high volume advancers from the relative strength list. Again a big increase.


The High volume decliners from the same list.

We are seeing improvement both in the number of new highs, and in the number of leading stoks that are advancing. I haven't been tracking this long enough to draw any conclusions, but as a wild guess, we are either in full on rally mode, or we are topping out. Your guess is as good as mine.

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