Friday's new highs, sorted by industry, page 1.
Page 2
The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
the high volume decliners from the same list.
There were no earnings reports from the watch lists after the close. I will have my normal weekend posts this weekend.
The range we are in now appears to be from 983 ton 1008, with 995.50 as the midpoint. We briefly pierced it yesterday, but right now it is offering some resistance. We got a big ramp into the close, but it was downward. Today was very strange, as out of nowhere the dollar collapsed, triggering big reversals in both gold and oil, but not equities.
On the weekly chart, the SPX has re-entered the overboughtstage in it's stochastics, although they show no signs of reversing yet. The recent correction barely made a dent in either stochastics or MACD. It appears that we are re-entering the down sloping channel we were in before last fall's crash.
Had it not been for a brief drop below 80, the Nasdaq would have had stochastics above 80 for the longest period sinc the big bull run from mid 2006-early 2007. As it is, it is poised to challenge the down trend line, which will probably coincide with chart resitance from the 2006 low by the time we get there.
The Dow industrials lagged badly, but the recent correction seems to given it new life. However, the trend toward lower volume isn't very encouraging. It is amazing how quickly the stochastics reversed and headed back up.
The Russell 2000 has also been lagging, but has virtually no resistance until somewhere around 550. Upward momentum is building and still has room to improve.
Terchnically, it is very hard to argue with the idea that the bear market is over, and it may well be, because it no longer bears any resemblance to the economy. Check this post at Market Ticker for the truth about GDP. However, the HAL 9000's at Goldman couldn't care less about GDP, green shoots, or what Dennis Kneale says. They don't even care if there is a company behind the stock they are buying. As long as they can scalp it for a few pennies, they are happy.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
This should have broken out on earnings today, but it looks like yesterday a lot of people made lucky guesses.
LAD did not pause to form a real base, it was more of a pullback with a slow run up. It broke out on earnings today. This is another that is miles off it's 52 week low, but hit that low in April instead of March. I just wish I knew how to see this kind of move coming.
This is a nice earnings breakout from a cup and high handle pattern. It's got just about everything you want to see: high price relative, positive CMF, high volume, and average volume increasing in the last few months. It did succumb to some selling pressure toward the end.
I happened to notice a reversal in gold this morning, then a reversal in oil later. The dollar has broken support, and I have no idea why. If the corellations we have been seeing lately hold, look for a ramp up in equities this afternoon.
As regular readers know, I don 't have an options account and therefore never bothered to learn much about options trading. However, I think that following the options market (laong with other markets) can give clues about what the stock market is going to do. I found a market simulator on investopedia.com (you need to open an account, but it is free). They give you $100,000 in monopoly money, and besides a stock simulator, it also has an options simulator. I started on Monday buy buying August calls on SPY, strike price $100, with no idea on gaining or losing, just wanting to watch them to see what happens. On Tuesday I decided to buy some puts to watch those (IWM and QQQQ). As you can see, I've lost a chunk of money since then, but the object here is learning, and it's not my money anyway (hey, that attitude might make me a good Fed chairman). Anyway, look for options reports as I learn more in the future.
In the spirit of GDP revision, I have revised the numbers on the intraday SPX chart. My target from yesterday, calculated with highly complex algorithms using Goldman's HAL 9000, has been revised downward 2 points, to 1008, the next point of chart resistance. 983, our previous resistance, has now bcome support, as we executed a bounce off it this morning. That would make today's pivot point (using a highly complex algorithm, calculated at very slow speed in my head) 995.50. Leading today is XLB and XLI, with gold appearing tpo stage a reversal after being down pre-open. Leading down are XLU and XLE. Yields are down this morning. It appears I missed some auctions this week (they were not listed on the treasury Direct schedule. Hmm).
Apparently, they did not go well. I will have to find out the details this weekend.
GDP came out this morning, and was better than economists forecast, dropping "only" at an annualized rate of -1%. First quarter GDP was revised downward to -6.4%, making it much easier to beat. Note that these are signs the recession is "easing". That is a different word than "ending", and even a dumbbell like me understands that.
I have 55 new highs so far, with high volume breakout moves in ABAX, LAD, OFIX, VOLT, and SWM. For those stocks reporing last night: APKT up 3%, GSIT down 3%, LAD up 18%, SYNA down 30%, VPRT down 7%, VSEA up 5%. GHM reported this morning and is up 6%.
Thursday's new highs, sorted by industry. Page 1
Page 2. 175 new highs today.
The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
The high volume decliners from the same list.
After the close we had several reports: APKT, 0.00 ah, GSIT 0.00 ah, LAD -.09% ah, SYNA -19% ah, VPRT -6% ah, VSEA +4% ah. Tomorrow we have GHM reporting before the open.
We got off to such a fast start today, I thought perhaps the HAL 9000's had gone berserk. 983 was hurtled easily, and we headed for the next level I had calculated, 1010, but stopped right in the middle. Some profit taking, naturally exagerated by the front running programs, restored my faith (somewhat) in the sanity of the market.
On a year long chart, the next level of chart resistance appears to be 1007, close to my calculated level. That appears to be the next target.
The six month Nasdaq chart won't show thee next target level, somewhere just under 2100. The Nasdaq is starting to show signs of being overbought, as the prifit taking was more severe here,
The new highs of the NYSE have gone ballistic, although still below bull market levels. You can see the base building process asthe new highs slowly inceased from March until June, then went nuts in the last month. The fundamentals may suck, but the technicals are saying that we may be in for an extended bull run here.
The new highs on the Nasdaq. This shows how much stronger the Nasdaq was through mid July, and how much it has weakened (relatively) since then.
So, what are the chances of a rouge program going haywire and buying or selling everything in sight? I can't say, but it sure is scary watching how fast the moves are now on the SPX. 10 point moves in minutes are getting quite common. Supposed one of Goldman's programmers fat-fingers a keyboard and sends the Dow down 3000 points? Open the pod bay doors, Hal.
SHOO got huge volume on earnings, but suffered the fate of a lot of stocks today: a late sell off. One thing that caught my eye was the pullback after the last breakout: You had a false "fill in the gap" pullback, then a second pullback which did fill the gap. Other than the big volum today, there isn't a whole lot going for this; the price relative is weak and CMF doesn't show much accumulation.
Here is a nice base,with a "too short" handle (it actually may be ok, O'Neill, if I remember correctly, says they should be at least 5 days in duration). This actually began it's run up back in February, before the rest of the market bottomed, accounting for the strong price relative. It got a huge boost of volume on earnings, but took a lot of selling into the close.
Another "too short" handle, but this got a really big boost of volume on earnings. This has uptrended in volume since April, so it is getting someones attention. The price relative line has remained strong, but CMF has been declining, although that could change after today.
Here is another of the annoying Russell rebalancing volume spikes. This is an earnings breakout, although it actually broke out to a new high earlier this week (the prior high was about 6.50). Nice volume, nice price relative, and the late sell off wasn't too bad.
Peak oil is a subject that has fallen off the radar thanks to more important issues (like gay marriage), but thank God the folks over at the Oil Drum are staying on top of it. They had a post a few days ago taking data from BP (formerly British Petroleum) and putting it in an easy to read table. Of the 54 countries that currently produce oil, only 14 have not hit peak production yet. I took the data and entered it into a spreadsheet, and played around with it. One of the interesting things I found was when I sorted the data by 2008 production. The table above is the top 10 oil producers in 2008. One thing that sticks out is how little representation that OPEC now has in the top 10. The other is that the United States, despite importing almost 70% of the oil we use, is still the third largest oil producer in the world. If anyone still believes that our oil based economy (yes, that would be you, IBD editorial page) is sustainable, all I can say is they are out of their minds. Also note that Saudi Arabia's numbers are in dispute: they claim to have 2 million barrels per day reserve capacity, but almost no one in the oil industry believes that.
EDIT: Forgot the link, ooops
Those of you who follow closely the earnings reports I report on every day (don't feel bad if you don't, I don't follow them very closely, either), know that GMCR had a dissapointment on earnings last night, and was trading down about 7% in after hours trading. So what of this morning? It gapped down, but reversed and quickly went into positive territory. What happened?
A quick look at the data supplied at Finviz.com shows that 35% of the float was being held short. I can't really blame anyone for shorting a crap stock that everyone touts as a "leader", but with only 30 million shares in the float, this is fairly easy to squeeze (as happened after the last earnings report, in May).
Despite a big bounce in the dollar yesterday, which may have been triggered by the sell off in oil, the market couldn't stay down yesterday, which was a setup for a big bounce up today.
That is exactly what we got this morning. 983 , which originally looked like weak resistance, was strengthening, until this morning. It fell easily, which means we are now in a new range. From 956 to 983 is 27 points, so 27 points above 983 is 1010, our new target, and the midpoint, at 996, is our new pivot point, and so far our high of the day. XLB is leading (with XAU up big), with XLF slightly behind. XLP, XLV, and XLU are bringing up the rear. The Nasdaq is lagging slightly, but the Russell 2000 is leading big. Despite the huge upsurge in the SPX, the VIX is down less than a half a percent. I sure wish I knew what was going on there.
There are 120 new highs, with high volume breakout moves in FIRE, WMAR, SHOO, PTI, and CAB, although there are probably plenty of others. On earnings, last night we had reports from AHL down 3%, CML down 2%, DRCO up 6%, DRIV down 9%, ESRX up 2%, FORM down 3%, FPO down 5%, GMCR up 3%, HTCO up 1%, and ITLN up 16%. This morning we had BIOS up 8%, GTIV up 4%, HOS down 5%, LZ up 1%, NUTR up 3%, OSK down 2%, ZEUS up 16%. This afternoon we have APKT, LAD, VSEA, VPRT, GSIT, and SYNA reporting after the close.
Wednesday's new highs, sorted by industry. Page 1.
Page 2. 94 total.
The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
The high volume decliners.
We have a busy day for earnings, these reported after the close, with the percentage up or down after hours: AHL, up 2.4%, CML, down 1.6%, DRCO, up 25%, DRIV, down 6%, ESRX, up 1.8%,
FORM, down 0.39%, FPO, flat, GMCR, down 7.5%, HTCO, down 4.6%, and ITLN up 2%. Reporting tomorrow before the open will be BIOS, GTIV, GTLS, HOS, LZ, NUTR, OSK, and ZEUS.
Are the chinks in the aarmor starting to show, or is this just a pause to reload? The SPX is having a tough time with 983, which is now pretty strong resistance. It may have to pull back and work off some of the overbought condition before making another attempt, that is, unless the HAL 9000's can kick into gear. Even though we were in a fairly narrow range, I still saw several sharp, exagerated moves, especially after 1pm when the institutional boys start their buying.
The Nasdaq is in a wider range, but is having a tough time with 1980. This has achieved the coveted "golden cross" with an ascending 200dema. The 200dsma is also on the verge of turning up.This is reminding me more and more of March 2003, when nobody believed it then. I don't believe it now, but charts don't lie.
The Dow industrials look more bullish, just as volume shrivels. The price relative line is establishing an uptrend, which in recent times has been bearish. Flip a coin.
The Russell 2000 has also reversed a bearish stance. It is outperforming once again. 552 is the "line of death", and MACD is still showing decent momentum.
Be careful what you ask for, you might get it. The CFTC has chased the speculators out of the oil market, thus causing yet another spectacular drop in oil. The problem is, unlike WalMart, which can charge 50 bucks for a pair of shoes that cost 5 bucks to make in Vietnam, oil is getting increasingly expensive (and dangerous) to get. Of course, if demand keeps dropping, oil prices will probably be the last thing we need to worry about.
Yep, it's Wednesday, and yep, I'm short on time, so I will be nack in a couple of hours or so with the new highs update.
A drug stock, INO, made a 300% move today due to a successful test of a flu drug. I suspected that several other biotechs would move in sympathy, and thought this was one, but this also had good drug news. It gapped up huge, but ended the day right where it started, as profit taking took hold. The technicals tell you absolutely nothing about a move like this, which is one reason I don't chase them.
Well, folks, blogger is at it again, it took about 20 minutes for this chart to load. SLAB is an earnings breakout, and one of the stocks removed from the relative strength list due to declining volume. Perhaps I should also list earnings schedules for the stocks on page 2 of the relative strength spreadsheet. This is a really beautiful chart, with well defined support and resistance and a very strong price relative line. It also had 10% of the float short, which probably contributed a lot to today's move.
The Nasdaq backs a ban on "Flash" trading (Reuters), even though they make a lot of money providing flash orders. it sounds to me like the Nasdaq knows the game is up and is trying to put their best face on it.
Direct Edge was the first to start "flashing" customer orders -- for fractions of a second -- to certain market members before routing them elsewhere to all participants.
The practice gives banks, hedge funds, and some dark pools, where orders are matched anonymously, an advanced look at order flow. The service helped spark Direct Edge's impressive growth, and was closely imitated early last month by formal exchanges Nasdaq Stock Market and BATS Exchange.
Direct Edge, which now has about 12 percent of U.S. equity market share, is center stage in defending flashes as an optional service that provides liquidity to those who otherwise wouldn't have it, and as a natural evolution of competition among exchanges for trading volumes.
So, it seems that this Direct Edge found a way to game the system, make a lot of money doing it, and the other exchanges "had to" go along to keep up. But, still, who is Direct Edge?
Direct Edge is owned by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co, hedge fund Citadel, Knight Capital Group, and the International Securities Exchange, a unit of Deutsche Boerse's Eurex exchange.
Why does that not surprise me?
By the way, the fact that the NYSE does not do flash orders does not make them pure as the driven snow. I'll have more on that on another day.
Not much has changed from yesterday. 983, whuch first looked like minor resistance, is now looming as a major hurdle. The gap at 961 looks like major support, which has not been tested yet, and the midpoint, 972, seems to be drawing price like a magnet: too far above, and it pulls in sharply, too far below and it ramps back up. XLP and XLV are leading the market up, and XLE and XLB are leading down. Now that the CFTC has made it clear that buying oil is evil, investors (oops, I mean speculators) are getting out in droves, and cap and trade will put the final nail in the coffin of free market energy. Now we can look forward to low prices and no supply.
The high frequency trading scandal is about to break big, as the Nasdaq has admitted it has been allowing front-running since June 3. I will have a follow up post on this later.
We also have lots of treasury auctions coming up. I will try to get more information and get that out as soon as possible.
There are 58 new highs so far, with high volume breakout moves in NCST, MV, SLAB, and CCE. Reporting last night were CTGX, down 0.1%, EXAC, down 5%, PEET, down 2%, SKT, down 1.4%, and WDC, down 2.5%. Reporting this morning were ASPM, down 0.5%, CCE, up 2%, PENN, down 10%, and SEE, down 5%.
Tuesday new highs, sorted by industry, page 1....
Page 2. 114 in all.
The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
The high volume advancers from the same list.
After the close we had reports from CTGX, flat AH, EXAC down 0.8%, PEET flat, SKT flat, WDC down 5%. I get the after hours data from Yahoo finance, and they may be having a problem, so I will have to double check it, but I don't have time to do it right now.
Blogger is having some problems uploading charts, but they seem to be clearing up a little, so I uploaded the Russell last, as I originally planned to omit it. The Russell, the least overbought of the major indexes, almost managed the biggest gain, with the Nasdaq getting the nod. The macro range here looks like 510-560, with the May high, 535 as the pivot. this still has plenty of room.
Watching the SPX intraday, it's amazing to see what you can see when you know what to look for. Normal moves made by big institutional orders are being exagerated by the obvious front running the computers are doing. Moves are very rapid and and big, both up and down, except during the times the big boys are out to lunch. We are still waiting for 983 to break here.
The Nasdaq composite can only be described as "overbought". RSI is getting into nosebleed territory, as is CMF. For whatever reason, volume was on the low side. This looks like it is smacked up right against resistance and might struggle with it tomorrow.
The Dow industrials were lagging this whole rally, until just recently. There is room to move here, as well, but the shriveling volume ain't going to move it very far.
I'm not an expert on Dow theory, but supposedly we have a buy signal with the Industrials and the Transports hitting new yearly highs. With the industrials making profits by cutting production (and employees), what are these guys going to transport?
The manipulation in the market is becoming painfully obvious. This last leg up happened so fast and furious that it didn't really give a chance to get back in (that is, if you got out back in June, when the distribution days were piling up). Who knows how long this will go on?
The new highs update will be slightly later than normal.
