There were 83 new highs today, here is the list.
The high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
The high volume decliners.
I have nothing scheduled to report after the close. Tomorrow I have BECN and CVGW reporting before the open (CVGW still not confirmed).
After the Dubai government basically said "tough toenails" to lenders of Dubai World, the fallout resulted in a strebgthening of the dollar overnight, but just in time for the market open, it dropped and the market opened about even, and we even got a little rally at the open. However, the news just wasn't cooperating: Iran has seized British hostages, sending the price of oil up; and the NY Fed announced more reverse repos, attempting to drain liquidity from the system. It looked bleak until the last half hour, the domain of the computers, who jacke the market right back up. 1080 is being defended quite strongly, and until it's broken, we have to give this market the benefit of the doubt.
As weak as the Nasdaq is , it held the 50dema, and bounced right off it. Volume on the indexes looks like an impressive increase, but is actually just average. I will be looking for a test of 2170; a failure to get above it will be a short signal.
The Dow looks like it is going to test it's previous high. A breakout here, even with the weakness of other indexes, would kill any ahort ideas. 
The Russell 2000 has a critical support level at 575, and went right through it today, which got the buyers to ome in and close it above. It's hard to say if this is going to bounce here or not, as this showed extreme weakness in the morning, but made a nice comback. The bearish "M-A" pattern is still intact, but until it completes there really isn't much to do here.
Yesterday oil broke through the floor of the flag pattern, but managed to get back above it, barely closing with the pattern intact. It got a bounce right off the 50dema, undoubtably helped by the news out of Iran. Hey, look on the bright side; if oil goes through the roof, then Abu Dhabi can backstop Dubai.
Dubai may just be the preliminary for a cascading series of soveriegn defaults, including but not limited to, Ukraine, Hungary, Greece, Ireland, and, God help us, an implosion in Japan. Black swans, indeed.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
CLWT broke out in October, then pulled right back down to thee break out point, held it, and started back up. Today's move apparently came on a rumor (that it will spin off a division, acording to the street.com, a source I absolutely do not trust). Of course, that doesn't explain last week's move. Notice how price relative broke out to a new high before price. That is usually a sign that a breakout is coming.
There were lots of big movers on the new highs list today, but this one caught my eye because of what it did back in September. After a previous breakout and gap up, it came back to fill in the gap, and tested the 200dma several times, holding it quite well. Even in a down trend that is an indication of some strength, and had I seen it I would have been paying closer attention. CMF went a little deeper in the subsequent consolidation than I would have liked, but otherwise this is a pretty impressive chart.
GSIT got a big boost in volume on news of a new wonder product. It didn't hit a new high until late in the day so it wasn't on my radar. This is a technically weak chart, although the 200dma did supply a nice blast-off platform. This could easily come down as fast as it went up.
Here is today's unusual options trading, from whatstrading.com.
These are the top 4 new highs in terms of relative volume. The only real breakout is CLWT, the others are in the process of going, or have gone, parabolic.
Still having a bit of a hangover from the "Dubai effect", we are getting a bounce this morning. I have resistance here at about 1097, and it looks like we will test that this morning. For the last two weeks, most of the movement in the market has been in the 15 minutes after the opening. with nothing much doing after that. Strength today is in XLF, weakness in XLV and XLP. Both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are seriously lagging, with the Russell almost a full percentage point behind the SPX. So far the market has shrugged off the Dubai situation, although I suspect that it is waiting for another shoe to drop (Ukraine, maybe, or Greece?). Treasury yields are not moving much, the 10 year up slightly, the 30 year down slightly. The dollar is dropping again, and gold and oil are both on the rebound.
I have 38 new highs so far, but not many breakouts as many of the new hghs are stocks that are going parabolic. CLWT and CAAS are the only decent looking breakouts I have seen so far. Among those reporting this morning, UNFY is up 8.5%, TLVT up 6%. i had SEED and CMN scheduled but they apparetly have not reported, although SEED is up 11% and in the process of going parabolic.
Here is the earnings schedule for this week. For tomorrow, I have been able to confirn UNFY and TLVT, but not SEED or CMN. For the rest of the week I have confirmed all but CVGW.
I have added this week's data to my industry database, and now have 11 weeks' worth of data. Simply by adding all percentages together I came up with a sum, the highest indicating sthe strongest industries, the lowest indicating the weakest. Here are the top 10 industries, with oi and gas pipelines having the highest overall number.
Here is a bar graph of the data, which, by itself isn't worth much, but I am working on combining this with other data to form some sort of trend indicator. Unfortunately the results so far haven't been readable.
Here are the bottom 10 industries. Not terribly surprisingly, regional banks dominate the weak industries.
Here is a bar graph of the weakest, midwest banks. Again, by itself, this chart isn't worth much, but I am working on it.
The New York Times has a story this morning about the growing need for food stamps:
"With food stamp use at record highs and climbing every month, a program once scorned as a failed welfare scheme now helps feed one in eight Americans and one in four children."
(Emphasis added).
Here is my solution. Get those children together, incorporate them as a bank holding company, and have them tell Congress they'll crash the financial system if they don't get $700 billion.
Holy shit, people.
Since we only had one stock from the earnings list reporting last week, it will be the subject of today's chart. Unfortunately I have somewhat spotty earnings data for AIPC, but as you can see, since this bottomed out in March, price has been following earnings. This was one of the leader's of the early rally, but it's rate of growth may be slowing, which is understandable since it's high growth rate earlier this year is hard to sustain. However, even though this week's earnings were decelerating, they were still in the triple digits. This appears to be basing, and could break out again.
There is only one stock from the earnings list that reported last week, that was AIPC, reporting a quarter of decelerating, but triple digit, earnings growth.
The relative strength spreadsheet has been uploaded. The earnings spreadsheet will be uploaded if/when I can confirm some earnings dates, probably tomorrow.
The are the industries that have at least 75% of the stocks in the group in the top 25% of the 52 week range.
These are the industries that have 25% of less in that range.
I have added this week's data to my database and will be doing somethin g with it tomorrow. One thing I thought of looking for was the groups with the largest increase in stocks in the range, but then I realized that the groups are not even in size and small groups will make larger moves (for instance, a 4 stock group only needs 1 stock to get into the range to make a 25% jump). I have also been working on graphing the data, but so far have not had satifactory results.
Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. The methods were the same used last week. This week we have about 2200 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week ranges. The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.
It was a shortened week on the IBD 100, fortunately I remembered to put the blue arrows in the right place. KMGB was last week's biggest gainer, and has spent about 2 weeks going straight up on a substantial ncrease in average daily volume. This will have to pull in some to offer an entry point, but might not do it. Price relative is moving up as well, but oddly CMF is not.
AIXG was the second biggest gainer. It has been undergoing a dramatic increase in volume since July, but the uptrend appears to be weakening just a bit. This might start forming a base soon, although, being an ADR, I don't expect the base to be particularly well shaped. Last Friday it gave us about the best entry point we could get, a near bounce off the 50dma.
VIP was the biggest decliner, but is actually a fairly bullish looking chart. I closed under the 50dma, but has a history of doing that before bouncing back up, and appears to have a pretty strong support level here. Neither CMF nor price relative is betraying any real weakness, and volume on the pullbak has been low. This is one to watch for a bounce.
HMIN is the second bigest decliner, and is a breakout that appears to be trying to fail but hasn't yet. It briefly dipped below the breakout point (and probably knocked out a lot of stops) but bounced back up. This one is a little tricky to figure out, because although it hasn't broken down, it sure looks like it wants to..
IBD again has the market uptrend under pressure. The distribution day count is 4 on the Nasdaq, 3 on the SPX and NYSE composite, and 2 on the Dow.
There were 50 new highs today, here is the list.
There were only 3 stocks on the relative strength list with a relative volume over 1.5, so I did not break them up into advancers and decliners.
I should be back to a somewhat normal posting schedule this weekend.
It's been almost 2 hours since the close and stockcharts has not updated the volume data yet, so we will have to ingnore that today, although wth a holiday and a shortened day, volume was likely low. After the near panic selling of the open, we had a day of testing support and resistaance, holding a low at 1084 and failing to bet above 1100. A late day sell off prevented a mildly bullish day, as we were well off the day's low until then.
Weekly, virtually nothing has changed since last week. I have 2 trend lines here, the blue one is drawn from the weekly highs, the green one from the weekly closes. There isn't a lot of difference between the two, but we are right up against the green line, a week or two from hitting the blue one. In either case, there isn't much upside from here (assuming the trend line provides resistance), and the market continues to slowly weaken.
The weakening is much more obvious on the Nasdaq, which appears to me to have topped out, however, it is still too close to it's high that it's too early to make a call.
The Dow shows signs of slowing, but nothing indicating it's going to stop. 10500 is the line in the sand, a couple of weeks of failures to get above it will be a sign of topping. This is the index helped most by a weak dollar, and if we have any dollar strengthening we will see it here.
The transports, by contrast, looks considerably weaker, and is having a hell of a time with 4066, the previous high. This could be helped by a stronger dollar, as oil will collapse.
The Russell 2000 got rejected as it tried to get back above the 10 week average, a very bearish development and a pretty good short signal. This could conceivably be helped by a stronger dollar, although that help may be in the form of a less quick drop. I suspect this will be testing the 40 week average soon, and if it holds, that would present another buying opportunity, if not, well hello bear market.
Many of us who sat and watched this rally in disbelief for months on end have had to sit and wait patiently for the big correction that hasn't come yet. Watch the Russell 2000, if this market is going to break down, you will see it there first. Besides, we don't know how many more Dubai's there are out there, or when the proverbial crap will hit the fan, but this won't gpo on forever. So, patience is key here.
I'm not sure when I will have the new highs update, as my schedule is pretty well screwedd up today.
EBR is a Brazilian utility that got decent volume and broke out for no reason i could find. The chart pattern here isn't particularly good, but is you look at a longer term chart, you can see a definite pivot point right at 14, which is also where it gets the most volume.
QLTI formed what could either be a cup with low handle (which has a breakout point at around 3.90) or a double bottom (breakout point at 4.20). In either case the real breakout was on Wednesday, but with a descending base it didn't hit a new high until today. This showed absolutely no signs of wanting to sell off with the rest of the market, a sign of (temporary) relative strength.
BFLY is the epitome of a "crap stock", a perenial money loser that usually trades around $1.00, and occasionally gets run because of the small float. After it's last run in August, it managed to hold the 50dma and has gone into an up trend. Beats me why.
Here is the fallout from yesterday's Dubai debacle. We are now in a new range from 1085 to 1095 (I think) as we have bounced off 1084 and are headed back up. Every sector is in the red, as the dollar gained significant strength overnight and all commodities are taking it on the chin. Undoubtably Wednesday break down in the dollar brought out more shorts, and they are geting squeezed today. Oil, in particularly, has breached the critical pivot at 75, but not by much. Trading should be pretty light today, and the computers are going to dominate, so we could see some pretty strange action.
I have 14 new highs so far, with breakouts brewing in BCA, QLTI, and EBR. There is nothing on the watchists scheduled to report earnings today. Due to the short day and the fact that I have some other stuff to attend to, I probably won't have nay more posts until after the close, which is only a couple of hours away.
This is from CMA Vision, part of the CME group. It is the highest default probabilities based on CDS trading. Particularly troubling is that, in as much trouble as Dubai is in, they are considered the sisth highisy risk of default. Also notice the bottom of the list: California/ State of.
(Hat tip to a commenter on Zero Hedge).
If solving the drunk's problem by giving him more booze only works until we run out of booze, well, we may just be running out. Top story in the news this morning: Dubai soveriegn debt default. the European markets are getting creamed, as are the S&P futures, and the dollar is ramping up. I don't know what time the news was announced, but I suspect it's the highlighted area in the chart above. (Chart from INO.com).
There were 225 new highs today, here is the list.
Here are the high volume advancers from the relative strength list.
These are the high volume decliners.
APWR, which I had scheduled to report today, didn't, but went up 11% on (according to thestreet.com, not my choice for a reliable source) rumors that it will be added to the IBD 100.
Sure.
Low, low volume, a narrow range, and CMF starting to skyrocket again. there is just nobody interested in selling yet, as we wait for yet another breakout. These charts have the simple moving averages (I forgot to change that before downloading). Even the 50dma is a substantial drop from here.
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, is not terribly far above the 50 day, and is sitting right on the middle of it's range. It still has a good boost in CMF, but stochastics are a bit weaker. This could be ready for a significant drop, or it could be cosolidating for another big move up.
The Dow industrials get stronger as it seems to be preparing for another assault on yet another new high. CMF barely went negative before reversing, and stochastics haven't even come close to a sell signal.
The Russell 2000 (via it's proxy, IWM) is the polar opposite, and got rejected at the 50dma. While the "M-A" pattern seems to be breaking up, it is still possible for it to complete. A break below the previous low will confirm the bearish stance, and probably drag the rest of the market with it.
There was yet another auction today, this time the 7 year (stockcharts only has end of day data for this, hence the line chart). The substantial drop in yield shows it went well. Just keep piling that debt up, we'll borrow our way to prosperity.
And the only chart that matters, presented raw.
I will have the new highs update early tonight.
