Since it's the end of the quarter, today is a perfect day to look at the "quarter's eye view" of the market. This looks so much like August-October 2007 it's not funny. And, just like 2007, it sure looks like we are rolling over. RSI's attempt to get back above 80 was rebuffed, another poke at 1175 failed, and MACD has a negative print. I don't know if IBD will call a distribution day today, but I'm trating it like one, and that makes 4, so we are on the xusp of trouble. We do have the moving averages for support, and I would be quite surprised if we don't hit one or both. On the positive side, CMF has not dropped by much, so we aren't into panic selling yet, and could well be on the way to an orderly pullback before the next rocket shot up. But then again, maybe not.
The Nasdaq should qualify as a distribution day, and by my count that makes 3 here, no reason to panic. MACD and RSI do look pretty weak, though. CMF is dropping, and this looks like an infmous "rounded top" pattern, one which I am not terribly familiar with. It also has support at the moving averages.
Now here is a reason to panic. Strength in the Dow has recently meant weakness in the market, and this is now by far the strongest of the averages.
If I had to rely on just one chart to judhe the stat of the market, it would be the Russell 2000. And does this ever look like it is headed down. We haven't even tested resistance in about a week. and are headed for the 20dema, which may or may not give us a bounce. MACD is headed down, and RSI is viusibly much weaker than the other averages. Looks like another correction is imminent.
I have to cut it short, I have some end of the quarter stuff to take care of in my databases, and Wednesdays I am always short on time. I should have a new highs update up in a bit. Until then I will leave you in the capable hands of The Ramones.
I am not a financial professional, just a guy that trades my own account.
I am also not a musical professional, just a guy that makes music on the computer. Thus, two blogs, one trading and on musical.
And, no, the picture is not me, it is the late, great John Belushi, one of the inspirations for these blogs.
This blog is focused on technical analysis of stocks and markets, putting heavy emphasis on chart analysis. My trading style is derived primarily from my mentor, William "Yoda" O'Neil, and the focus here is on leading and breakout stocks, but all forms of trading are covered to some extent. Economic and political news that effects the market are also topics here, and the blog may occasionally become a platform for my political and philosophical ranting. I keep several spreadsheets on Google docs which track various aspects of the market and readers are welcome to vies and comment on them.
Google Docs Spreadsheets
There are several spreadsheet that I maintain on Google docs to track various watchlists and trends in the market.
1. The earnings list - a group of small and micro cap, low float stocks that have exhibited recent rapid earnings growth. They are modeled along the lines of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM system, but limited to small cap, highly volatile stocks.
2. The relative strength list - a group of stocks which are near 52 week highs and have shown an increase in average daily volume. The list is limited to the top 200 stocks according to my methodology, which will be detailed on one of the pages of the spreadsheet.
It can be accessed here, and is also updates weekly.
3. Relative strength by industry - Uses industry data from Finviz.com to track the percentage of stocks within each industry that are in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, looking for trends.
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