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Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Oh, Crap

It wasn't long after the open that we were looking at the possibility of getting back above the all important 1040 level, and with badly oversold conditions it appeared we might do it. All the indicators were bulish for the first hour or so, but then things started to deteriorate. There wasn't any news driving the market (ISM services came in lower than expected, but that was ignored), and volume wasn't particularly high, all of which was about as expected. As we sat back waiting for the expected bounce, things started to go sour.

The Dow industrials stayed pretty strong most of the day, but still could not keep all their gains. They did finish nicely positive, aboout the only good news on the day.

Now we get to the not so good news. The Nasdaq, which managed only a slight lead in the morning, revered and, if not for a last minute ramp, would have finished negative on the day. The price relative line is now headed down, a bad, bad sign.

Now for the "this sucks" news: the Russell 2000 had a big lead in the morning, suddenly reversed and lead the market down, and finsihed deep in the red. this is the only index that has managed to stay above the February low, and it appears a retest of that low is in the cards. Since there is no volume on the Russell, it's hard to judge just how bad the selling was (disregard the blue line in the CMF box, I didn't see that until just now), but this tells us this market can get even more oversold.

I saw nothing to trigger the sell off today, and other than the Russell, the drop really wasn't that bad. the trouble is, a big drop in the Russell scares me more than a big drop in the Dow, and watching it reverse was one of those "oh, crap" moments. The market clearly has some work to do.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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