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Monday, July 19, 2010

Preparing For The Onslaught

After a promising start, a bad sell off after another round of disappointing home builder news, and another rally and pullback, we finished right about where we were after the first half hour. 1070 is now appearing to be a level of attraction, pulling price either up or down if it strays too far. This is just 5 points frpom the flash crash low, so it could be a signal to the computers: dip below and we start buying, push above aand we sell.  Volume was not impressive, but considering the time of year and no news, their really wasn't much volume expected.  ATR is slowly dropping, so the market appears to be calming down, waiting for more earnings reports. We got a bad one after the close: IBM missed revenue and gave bad guidance, and are getting whacked after hours.

The Nasdaq is in just slightly better shape than the SPX, since the top end of the range here is above the moving averages. Volume was pretty weak here, too.

By comparison, the Dow looks pretty damn strong, but this one is playing the simple moving averages rather than the exxponentials, because the Dow is what is put on CNBC all day (Russell what????) and that is where the retail traders get their daily dose of technicals.. This is the only major inde that has managed (of late) to stay above the midpoint of it's current range.

The Russell 2000 has a nearly perfectly perpendicular down trend channel, and until it breaks, I have to assume the market is in an overall down trend.  This index seems to be doing a better job of following the technicals, which is a clue that the computers are watching is as well. This does not look nearly as healthy as the other indexes.

The last time we ooked at the dollar index, it was headed for the 200dema. It got the bounce we were looking for, but today's black candle may mean it is going to be pretty weak. The correlation between the market and the dollar is pretty weak right now, but it can come back srongly at any time, particularly if this really starts moving up.

Be prepared for a couple of weeks of earnngs galore, and if the first week was any indication, we may be in for a rough time.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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