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Thursday, July 1, 2010

Thursday Morning Update

This morning's unemployment claims numbers. The red numbers kind of say it all.

With yesterday's break of the critical 1040 level we are now in territory where support and resistance are going to be quite tricky to find. I thought I would get creative this morning and put the pivot point at 1038 rather than the obvious 1040, then put the first resistance at 1052, and that would put first support at 1024. Unfortunately, we have already gone through that, so creative or not, it's back to the drawing board. So far we have bounced off 1021, but I would like to see a retest before I declare that support. All sectors are getting hit, but getting it especially bad are XLF and XLV. XLP, XLU, and XLK are holding up best. Despite the relative strength of XLK, the Nasdaq is lagging, and the Russell 2000 is really getting cheesed. TNX, which days ago broke the unheard of level of 30, is now in a kamikaze death spiral toward the absolutely absurd level of 29, and could actually get there today.Oil and gold are both down, the dollar rising rapidly against the Euro and falling rapidly against the yen. Things are not looking very good right now.

I have 7 new highs so far, with 2 breakouts, BJ and IIJI. There is nothing to report on the earnings front.

EDIT: Just before hitting "publish" I rechecked the levels above. 1121 was reteested and failed, and the TNX has already broken through 29. Holy shit, people, we may be headed for a crash.

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