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Thursday, September 30, 2010

The Best September Since 1939

 This morning's breakout didn't last long: as soon as we gapped up, the selling started, and didn't stop for another 2 and a half hours. Even after that, we got a timid rally attempt at best. Volume was pretty high today, and I would venture to guess that this will qualify in IBD as a distribution day. It is still looking like a pullback is in the cards, and after today a retest of 1130 looks very likely.

 The Nasdaq took it a little harder today, and volume was quite high here. it looks like 2310 is where the support is here, and it looks pretty strong, so I think we will retest it in the not to distant future. The last time I looked at this I remarked about the price relative almost going straight up. Not anymore.

The Russell 2000 already has retested support, and passed. Here the price relative line is stregnthening. If anything, any pullback here should be pretty weak, and if this continues to strengthen, it should lead the market up.

Here are the new highs n the Nasdaq. Whie the uptrend has stalled, it is still well above 100, the iaginary line between bullish and bearish. This, at least, does not indicate any major weakness in the market.

The new highs on the NYSE have also stalled, but, again,m are not indicating any imminent collapse, at least, not yet. Notice that this is not longer stronger than the Nasdaq, which, if recent history serves as a guide, is a bullish indication for the market, at least in the short term.

It sure looks like the SPX and Nasdaq have topped out for the time being, and they may have, but the strength of the Russell 2000 and the strong market internals tell us we may be in for a nominal pullback here,Much is being made of this being the best September since 1939. Unfortunately, that also marked a top, and the bottom wasn't found until 1942. Let's hope we don't have to ind one the same way.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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