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Friday, September 17, 2010

Options Expiration

Today's unusual option trading, from

Today is options expiration, so it is time to take a look at my price "targets" I came up with based on options open interest. The first number is calculated base stictly on open interest, the second takes options values into account:

AAPL  250 240   currently at 275.69 clean miss
DIA  101 104 currently at 106.06 clean miss
GLD 109  110  currently at 124.75 clean miss
GS  145  145  currently at 151.04 clean miss
SPY  106 109 currently at 112.52 these don't expire until September 29, so I can't call it yet, but it does not look good.

I had a few hits and quite a few close ones in past months, but was way off this month. These results probably mean one of three things: 1) there is a mistake in my method, 2) this month was a fluke, or 3) the theory that price on expiration can be predicted by options open interest is false. At this point I am not sure I will continue this unless I can fin a way for it to take up less time.

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