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Saturday, October 16, 2010

IBD 100

 I was a little late entering the IBD 100 into a Finviz portfolio last week, so I may not have accurate information, but for our purposes here that isn't terribly important. The IBD 100 overall had a pretty good week, but their are cracks starting to show. There weren't a lot of really big gainers, and while their weren;t a lot of big decliners, there were enough to be concerned. I have RADS as the biggest gainer, It broke out yesterday on higher than average volume. CMF went quite negative during the short base, but that is probably skewed by the big volume spike last month. Price relative is also on the weak side.  This has a small float (29 million shares), and gets decent volume, so it moves a lot, and is at an all time high. If this thing is growing it's earnings (I haven't looked at the numbers) this will probably go a lot higher.

 CTRP was the second biggest gainer. This is also a frequent member of the leadership scan I do every weekend, so it does have some CANSLIM credentials. It does have a large float (130 million shares), is heavily traded, and, other than the big drop in July, forms pretty decent chart patterns. Yesterday it tried to break out after a small pullback, but did not get volume. Price relative did not get to a new high, so this may not be ready for another move up and might need some more consolidation.

I have ADTN as the biggest decliner, and this looks like an earnings miss. The 50dma is now broken, and this is struggling to find a support level. Typically stocks in an uptrend that get an earnings hit sell off for about 10 days, then reverse and resume the uptrend, but that is not always the case, and I wouldn't count on it here.

TSL was the second biggest decliner, and it all came yesterday, after Thursday's failed brekaout. I don't know what triggered the sell off in solar stocks yesterday, but this one got hit hard, and the chart gives some clues that it would be.CMF was negative even as this was climbing,  Price relative was strong, but neve managed to break out. ATR, which was quite low during the July-August base, was rising here, which also means potential trouble. 

Once again, it won't be until later today that I will be able to get IBD (assuming they don't sell out again) and I don;t know the distributin day count, although I believe it is probably not high enough to start panicking, but cracks are appearing in the market, so it's not longer time to plunge head first into everything that is breaking out.

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