About all you can say about today is "it could have been worse". As it was, we merely futzed around the pivot point at 1155, undercutting it briefly but getting back above it in quick order. Volume was low, but that shouldn't be a surprise as I suspect not too many people are willing to get in front of tomorrow's freight train, the NFP report. Analysts are expecting zero jobs created, but I am strongly smelling a worse number than that. The unemployment rate is expected to go up to 9.7% (up from 9.6%) but I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down as more and more people are dropping out of the work force.
Many of the leading Nasdaq stocks continued to take beatings today, but many put in reversals and finished off the lows. The NDX, which is AAPL and 99 also rans, failed to break out with the SPX a couple of days ago, and is in a longer consolidation. Not that MACD here has flipped over and gone negative.
I thought it would be interesting to compare the Russell 2000 with the NDX (why, I'm not sure). Hmm, it seems the Russell has been lagging quite badly ever since the market topped out in April, but, appears to be reversing that situation. Even though the Russell was the first to flash a buy signal in this rally, the price relative with the NDX didn't bottom out until mid September, but has really outperformed quite nicely since then.
Here is the new highs on the Nasdaq, just barely into rally territory (which is above 100). Normally a trip into the "neutral zone" between 100 and 50 for more than a couple of days indicates a trend change coming. We aren't there yet.
The same indicator on the NYSE, which is considerably stronger, although that may be due to the large presence of ETFs and bond funds on the NYSE. However, even adjusting for that (putting the "bull/bear" lines at 120 and 70 instead), this is still stronger than the Nasdaq.
Apparently the NY Times reported talks between MSFT and ADBE about an acquisition. What time they reported thaat, I don't know, so I'm not pre-supposing any front running here, but what I would like to know is, what if the report turns out to be false? Do all these guys get a "do over" like the people who get rammed on an HFT induced crash? Then again, it might be true. Just think, Adobe Flash working just as well as other Microsoft products. On second thought, let's hope it's not true.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
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