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Monday, October 4, 2010

SPX Flashes The Sell Signal

 Today was a little worse than I at first imagined it would be, although not as bad as it could have been. There is some question as to where the actual support level is: 1125 or 1130. Today 1130 was nearly tested, and we dd get a weak bounce. Volume was muted, sparing us from another distribution day, but the market is still looking toppy and a pullback still appears to be in the cards, the only question being how far.

 The Nasdaq again took a pretty big hit, and there isn't much question about support here.  The oprice relative line is dropping again, which is not a good stuation at all, but as long as support holds, it is not panic time. Most of the leaders here (with the notable exception of NFLX) took substantial hits today, and a few )such as MELI) are on the verge of breaking down.

The price relative on the Dow industrials has gone flat again, which, while not hugely bearish, is not bullish either. This is sitting just above a pivot point, and volume was pretty low today, so this is not indicating an imminent collapse.

If this was a stock, I would be selling immediately. The Russell 2000 broke out with a price relative below a previous high, a sure sign of weakness, and today it broke down back below the breakout point. Best case here is a bounce off the rising 50dema.

A reletively weak bounce in the dollar was all it took to send the market into a tizzy, and it wasn't confidence in the dollar, it was loss of confidence in everythi9ng else. So far this looks like a weak bounce that won't get back above 80, but that all depends on the situation in Europe, which seems to change evry 5 minutes.

Today the SPX flashed a red bar on the Elder impulse system chart, which, at least for the last year, has been a very reliable sell signal (short term). We still have a low distribution day count, so it is unlikely we are in for a major drop yet. That can change pretty quickly, however.

I will have the new highs shortly.

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