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Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Another Euro Blowout

 Today I will be a little brief, partially because I am short on time, and partially because I am a little sheel shocked from a pretty weird day in the market. I was going to pat myself in the back for calling today's bottom (at 1209) then noticed I typo'ed it this morning and put 1109. Sheesh. We did get a pretty relentless drop in the afternoon, which did take me a bit by surprise, and the volume gives us what should be distribution day #1. So far, there is no reason to panic, but there is also reason to be cautious, as I don't believe this one is over yet.

 The first thing I noticed was a big reversal and dramatic drop in gold, which doesn''t look quite as bad on a daily chart. It held support at the pivot point at 1387 and has plenty of room before it threaten the previous low.


Silver took an even more dramatic plunge, but here again has some room before it threatens support. The fierce up trend it was in was not sustainable for long, and it may need to pull in some more.


Crude oil was also hit, and having established a recent high of 87.71, I utilized the fibonacci grid to come up with a target of 90, but we might see a bounce off 83 first.


With gold, silver, and oil all dropping, I thought it had to be the dollar. I checcked the Forex pairs, and it was the USD/EUR pair that was acting up. It seems like the current Euro crisis is now Ireland. I did see a headline this morning about bond yields rising in Ireland, but did not bother to read it, and had I been paying attention I might have seen what was coming. Unfortuantely, I was too wrapped up in this story. Now, a missile lauch 35 miles off the coast of California, which nobody can explain (except the "it's a jet contrail" crowd, who ignore the fact that if it was a jet, it would have been under FAA control), but we are being told that it is no threat to national security. You know, after the "subprime is contained" and "we will not have a recession" pronouncements of the recent past, I am not comforted.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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