The Bond Vigilantes Launch A Missile of Their Own
We are now developing another cluster of blue bars on the Elder impulse system charts. A blue bar means that one of the two indicators that are used by the system, the 13dema and the MACD histogram, is declining, which in this case is the MACD histogram. However, the 13dema is still rising at a pretty good clip, so barring a complete crash tomorrow, it will be a whiie before we see a red bar again. The market did show some sharp weakness early, but reversed after an hour or so and ended up positive for the day, which won't do much to turn that average. RSI has now worked off much of the overbought status it was in, and it's quite possible we could get another thrust higher.
The Nasdaq's range is pretty clear on this chart, and of significance today was the gap fill. This, too, looks like it could be primed for another thrust up.
The Russell 2000 posted a green bar today, so the chances of this going into a sharp down trend are pretty remote. The resistance around 740 could be tougher than it looks, and I suspect getting through it will open the floodgates.
This is not supposed to be happening. Bernanke's plan is to keep this low, and it's not co-operating. Could it be that the bond vigilantes are finally waking up?
For the last few days the market has been following the EUR/USD pair. Stockcharts does not have forex pair charts (Finviz does, but they are not annotatable), but they do have the currency index charts. The Euro has taken another beating on the latest Euro crisis, this time Ireland, and when the Euro weakens, the dollar strengthens. A rising dollar means falling prices, and a rapid rise can trigger margin calls, resulting in an even more rapid rise. Since the dollar index includes 5 other currencies (I believe), it is important to know which pair it is following, and to know when it stops.
The market has looked like it has been weakening for about a month now, but refuses to go down, and if the Elder impulse system is an indication, it won't any time soon. It's usually when the market looks like it can't possibly go down that it does.
I will have the new highs update shortly.






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