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Monday, November 8, 2010

Consequences, Intended or Otherwise

 It's just barely red, but we got a red candle today, which may be just about the only type of buying opportunity we might get for a while. i noticed what looked like big money selling into strength in the latter half of October, but I have seen nothing to indicate that yet. Bernanke has a big advantage in what he is doing: rising stocks will be a big psychological boost, even if the price of rising stocks is rising food and energy prices, and at this point there probably isn't much of a temptation to take profits here. Look at how much CMF has risen in the last week or so: and RSI is probably about as high as it's been in years. ATR is at an extremem low, as the market is apparently becoming convinced that there will be no more corrections: the Fed will not allow them. The banks must be saved, whatever the cost.


 The Nasdaq is now becoming a near mania. PCLN reported after the close and is screaming higher after the close. Sure, i is way overvalued, but is going to get squeezed again, as the stubborn short sellers have to rush to cover.



 The price relative on the Dow industrials continues to drop, and the rate of the drop is increasing. That peaked right as the market started turning in late August, and it's continued drop is about the most bullish indication in the market right now.



The Russell 2000 gave a couple of head fakes in recent weeks, but the price relative line has resumed it's uptrend. Short term this is seriously overbought and that gap is goint to be calling soon, but medijum term (next 3 months or so) this chart looks about as bullish as you can get.


We-ve has a couple of decent up days on the dollar index, but that is because this compared to other currencies, which are now going to be subject to their own printing orgies. Commodities are now going to be the true gauge of the strength of the dollar, and a continously weaker dollar will be a great help to you if you are in massive debt. So, unless you are not deeply in debt, or you have to by food and energy, you have nothing to worry about. If you are one of those irresponsible people who saved a portion of your income your whole life and now have to live off the interest income, you are in big trouble.

Sometimes the news is just so incredible that your mind goes numb. I'm still trying to get my head around the fact that the Fed is monetizing the next 8 months of Federal debt. This will have consequences, for all of us.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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