When last I looked at the charts (sorry about yesterday, but i just did not have time to do any charts), I remarked that it looked an awful lot like a dead cat bounce. Unknown to me, because I forgot to look, the Elder impulse chart flashed a buy signal, which, unusually, turned into another sell signal yesterday, then right back to a buy signal today, with no blue bars in between. Now that we have held support again, this is no longer looking like a dead cat bounce, but instead it is starting to look like another one of these "w" shaped bull market corrections. We will get our answer soon, either a breakout past 1200 or a failure. I'm not even going to hazard a guess as to which it will be. Elder impulse whipsaws are pretty rare, but we are in the middle of one.
The Nasdaq seems to be saying "breakout" as it is now above the pivot point and is starting to lead again. This could test the previous high within a couple of days (Friday is a half day of trading, so it is unlikely then).
Holy crap, the Russell 2000 could actually make a breakout attempt on Friday. A big breakout here will but a huge nail in the coffing of the bears, and we will be headed higher, period.
Gold is forming what appears to be a potential head and shoulders pattern, which I suspect will be a bear trap if we get an initial failure at 1387. With the deterioration of both the Korean Peninsula and Europe, this is going to go higher sooner or later, no matter how many bailouts they throw at this.
A 5% move in the TNX? This had an initial failue at the 200dema, but looks like it will take another shot at it.
I it not very long, but it appears we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern here. A break above the 200deam will mean that the bull market in Treasuries is over, and with it any hopes for the resurrecion of the housing market.
The market has gone basically nowhere for months on end now, but may be on the verge of making another big move. Unfortunately, it might be for the wrong reasons. I saw some very interesting posts on some other blogs today, and, assuming I have some time, will put something up about it tomorrow.
I will have the new high update shortly.
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