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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Saturday, November 27, 2010

IBD 100

While the overall market was less than impressive this week, leading stocks as a group were very impressive. The IBD 100 had several stocks racking up gains of 10% or better. NFLX was the biggest gainer, with a big gap up early in the week on some news I didn't bother to read. It is an incredibly strong stock now and is not showing signs of topping out yet, although I suspect we may start seeing some soon. The best entry points here would be either at the pivot points or as close to the 50dma as possible, but that would be for an add-on position. If you aren't already in this (and I'm not) you missed the train; look for another one. This ha an incredibly high amount of the float short, however, and may be a good squeeze play, if you are more of a riverboat gambler type.


TTM was the second biggest gainer. This has been in a very strong 45 degree uptrend, with a couple of short consolidations that really can't be called bases, and a recent pullback, also to short to be called a base. This has been getting high volume lately, both on up and down days, and ATR has been increasing dramatically, so we may be seeing a big move in one direction or the other soon. CMF has been declining on the way up, which could mean institutional selling into strength, but pice relative is very strong, This is another one where, if I'm not already in it, it's probably best to pass on it for now.



RLD was the biggest decliner. It has not been trading long enough to have established strpong pivot points, but does appear to be setting up a trading range here. That gap from a month ago could be pretty good support, and any retests there would be buyable, with reasonably tight stops, although in general I wouldn't be trading anything that has been trading less than 6 months, unless I had some money I didn't mind losing, and that's not likely because I'm the type who had a near heart attack when Starbucks raised their coffee by 15 cents.


FMCN was the second biggest decliner, and it wasn't much of a decline (the blue arrows represent last Friday on these charts). Ordinarily I would say this was a bullish chart, since it is consolidating near the 50dma, but I don't like the rising ATR, and the price relative line is weakening. It also is developing a potential head and shoulders top, with a classic head and shoulders volume pattern. I don't trust this one at all.

I don't have a distribution day count, since they are no longer being counted. We are now waiting for a follow through day, although the way leading stocks are acting right now, if I see a good setup, I'm not going to wait. Normally the IBD 100 under performs during corrections, and right now it isn't, which means we may be in for a short correction.

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