Well, now, this is something you don't see every day: 6 straight trading days that went exactly nowhere. Yo say the market is in a holding pattern is putting it mildly. the only thing we don't now is what is it the market is waiting for, the election, or the helicopter drop. One thing I noticed, that probably doesn't mean much, is that CMF has risen above the previous high, but still a bit behind the July-August rally.
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, has a CMF lower than the previous peak, despite the fact that it is seriously outperforming since September 1st. I;m not sure why that would be, but it might be interesting to see if it does
end up meaning something. CMF is not the besst indicator in the world, but usually means big money selling into strength when it lags. I wouldn't be surprised if that is what is happening here.
As usual, the Dow is right in the middle. The current level of CMF is almost exactly at the prior peak. Price relative is still trending down, which, as I have postulated before, is probably bullish.
Price relative on the Russell 2000 has now gone into a short term down trend, and that is not bullish. I;m nt going to draw any conclusions from CMF on an ETF, but it is declining. The Russell has now been lagging badly for nearly a month, which could mean two things; 1) it is about to drop, taking the rest of the market with it; or 2) it's about to take off, as rotation goes from the Nasdaq to here. Beats me which it will be.
Treasury yields rose after a gap down this morning, and you can see that the TNX has a pretty good support level at 26. It appears to be forming an inverted head an shoulders pattern (although it is awfully short), a pretty reliable bottoming pattern. 28.27 is the do or die resistance level here, break that and it appears the bull market in bonds is ending.
It looks like we have at least one more day of this, but we will probably get fireworks on Wednesday. Which way, I don't know.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
0 comments:
Post a Comment