Testy Tuesday

We had a litle of everything today: another successful test of support, and unsuccessful tst of resitance, and high volume. We are now apparently going into moving average hell again, stuck between the 20 and the 50. The good news is the 50 is rising, the bad news the 20 is dropping, so one or the other will likely give way soon. Support is being defended here, but that defense dries up as soon as we lift off.  Notice that, despite the lack of down movement in price, MACD id still moving lower, although RSI is hanging tight. It tlooks like the 1173-1237 rnge is going to be the battle ground between bulls and bears, and it looks like it can last for a while.

The picture looks similar in the Nasdaq, although quite a bit stronger. MACD's downward movement is slowing, and RSI is trending up slightly. Volume was big here, and there was a lot of movement, but in the end we stopped about here we started.

the Russell 2000 has established itself as the leader, and unlike the others, has support rather than resistance at the 20dema. MACD never went into as severe a downslope, and looks like it is trying to reverse here.  RSI is rising, ATR is very low, and this is not far from a breakout. Tomorrow I will ake a look at the Elder impulse chart, which is not far from a buy signal right now. The Russell gave a buy signal back in August, several days ahead of the SPX, and may do it again.

The TNX chart is looking a little weird here, it's not often you see this kind of volatility. It has tried to drop, but the rising 20dema has provided support, and now the 50dema is rising. The 200dema, which has so far been rsistance, is flattening out. Just as with the SPX, the moving averages are going to squeeze the price, and one or the other is going to give.

QE 2 was supposed to trash the dollar, but that trashing didn't last long. the fibonacci grid fits perfectlyh right over that little pullback we had, and gives up a target of 81.85. Notie how MACD turned up well before this bottomed out, which was a pretty good indication that that was a bottom. The logical play here is to wait for it to hit 81.85, drop to the 200dema, then go long there. Of course, these always do what they are supposed to do, but never when they are supposed to do them.

I will have the new highs update shortly.