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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Sunday, January 31, 2010

LANC

There was an error in the LANC chart from this morning. Here is the corrected chart.

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Six More Banks Down

Here are the bloody details:
  - First Regional Bank, California
  - First National Bank, Georgia
  - Community Bank and Trust of Cornelia, Georgia
  - Florida Community Bank, Florida
  - Marshall Bank, Minnesota
  - American Marine Bank, Washington

That brings to 15 to total so far in 2010, and puts us on a pace to beat last year's total of 140.

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Earnings Schedule This Week

Here is the earnings schedule I have so far for next week. I have not been able to confirm any dates yet, and will post any changes.

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Earnings Growth Charts

We had 8 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week. after the disaster I had last week trying to post too many charts, I decided this week to limit it to the 4 stocks that reported positive earnings growth. As always, the black line is price, the black bars volume, blue is price relative to SPX, bottom red is EPS, and top red is earnings growth rate.




First up is GMCR, the only one to report accelerating earnings growth. This is actaully a pretty incredible stock, showing noo signs of even slowing down during the recession. Earnings growth is not spectacular, but very steady, and price reflects earnings nearly perfectly.  This is probably the strongest stock in the market right now.



This is LANC. I have a feeling I may have made an error somewhere, because this chart is not matching the data I had last night. It shows a bigger drop off in earnings than I calculated, so I will have to double check. However, price hasn't been adversely affected, and in fact it broke out to a new high. Price has been following earnings perfectly until this last report, reinforcing the idea that I made an error.



The is NEU, which also has price following earnings. Earnings growth slowed this quarter after some pretty dramatic growth. Price took a beating last week on the earnings, so the market may be anticipating continued slow growth.



SXE has had a trend of slowing growth since it topped out in 2007, and has been in a rather long consolidation since.  This does not yet have a 5 year track record on earnings, and the market does not appear to be anticipating anything, it is just waiting to see where this goes.

Of the other four stocks that reported, HWKN and SBSI both reported negative growth quarters, but have longer term uptrends in earnings and are probably not in any danger of not making the list next quarter. ALGT is in a short term down trend in earnings, but also should not have too much trouble making the next cut. OFG is in a very nasty down trend in earnings and probably will be cut from the list next quarter.

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Saturday, January 30, 2010

Relative Strength By Industry

Here is the combined industry post I mentioned this morning. The columns are, from left to right, The industry name, the percentage of stocks in the top 25% of the 52 week price range this week, the sum of all weeks I have so far, the moving 4 week average, the moving 10 week average, the difference between the 4 week and 10 week, and the number of stocks in each group. The table is sorted by difference between the 4 week and 10 week. Those with a positive number are trending higher in terms of the number of stocks in the group nearing 52 week highs, those with negative numbers are trending lower.


Name 01/30/10 SUM 4 week avg 10 week avg 4 wk - 10 wk Stocks in Group
REIT - Retail 75 840.69 78.98 57.85 21.13 44
Residential Construction 31.58 563.18 46.05 26.84 19.21 19
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers 66.67 1150 79.17 61.67 17.5 6
Publishing - Newspapers 90 1260 90 73 17 10
Personal Computers 33.33 1299.66 66.58 49.97 16.61 3
Sporting Activities 33.33 466.67 45.83 30 15.83 6
Drug Delivery 38.89 578.09 45.84 30.97 14.87 18
Home Health Care 60 1025.54 77.5 63 14.5 10
Major Airlines 50 837.5 71.88 57.5 14.38 8
Marketing Services 66.67 1069.93 70.84 56.67 14.17 18
Discount, Variety Stores 46.15 1041.68 63.46 50 13.46 13
Money Center Banks 75 943.75 68.75 56.25 12.5 16
REIT - Hotel/Motel 60 990 72.5 60 12.5 10
Lodging 40 1038.78 65 53.24 11.76 15
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 57.14 986.57 67.35 56.12 11.23 49
Farm & Construction Machinery 41.18 1058.83 70.59 59.41 11.18 17
Business Equipment 58.82 899.99 63.24 52.35 10.89 17
Food - Major Diversified 80 1395 90 79.5 10.5 5
Rubber & Plastics 52.63 865.28 61.38 51.05 10.33 19
Hospitals 41.67 1088.06 68.75 58.71 10.04 12
Computer Based Systems 33.33 666.66 50 40 10 6
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories 66.67 1209.53 76.19 66.19 10 21
Sporting Goods Stores 62.5 1062.5 68.75 58.75 10 8
Tobacco Products, Other 100 1500 100 90 10 2
Networking & Communication Devices 44.44 846.2 51.39 41.4 9.99 18
Credit Services 64.29 1122.41 73.22 63.64 9.58 42
Textile Industrial 55.56 911.1 69.45 60 9.45 9
Cleaning Products 100 1457.11 96.43 87.14 9.29 7
Dairy Products 50 550.01 45.83 36.67 9.16 6
REIT - Office 88.89 1040.49 86.11 77.09 9.02 9
Sporting Goods 33.33 499.95 33.33 24.44 8.89 9
Apparel Stores 44.68 1127.55 63.83 55.11 8.72 47
Security Software & Services 50 1310 72.5 64 8.5 10
Textile - Apparel Clothing 61.54 1165.82 71.16 62.69 8.47 26
Health Care Plans 73.33 1080 88.33 80 8.33 15
Drugs Wholesale 66.67 1083.35 66.67 58.34 8.33 6
Diversified Computer Systems 40 1005.46 55 46.91 8.09 10
Auto Dealerships 27.27 950.01 59.09 51 8.09 11
Independent Oil & Gas 50.54 1006.5 65.33 57.35 7.98 93
Resorts & Casinos 23.53 734.55 36.76 28.82 7.94 17
Lumber, Wood Production 38.46 855.47 57.69 49.83 7.86 13
Broadcasting - TV 64.29 1080.6 66.08 58.57 7.51 14
Research Services 36 497.2 39.19 31.73 7.46 25
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 28.57 784.14 46.43 39.02 7.41 28
Home Furnishings & Fixtures 76.47 1111.77 77.94 70.59 7.35 17
Trucks & Other Vehicles 22.22 677.72 41.67 34.44 7.23 9
Air Delivery & Freight Services 60 1074.54 65 58 7 10
Manufactured Housing 40 430.01 35 28 7 5
Heavy Construction 16.67 727.8 43.75 36.9 6.85 24
Restaurants 38 690.55 41.36 34.58 6.78 50
Long-Term Care Facilities 28.57 835.7 48.21 41.43 6.78 14
Internet Software & Services 41.46 940.67 53.31 46.56 6.75 41
Medical Equipment Wholesale 66.67 1344.49 72.23 65.56 6.67 9
Machine Tools & Accessories 60 1180 82.5 76 6.5 10
Investment Brokerage - National 27.78 796.71 43.06 36.73 6.33 18
Scientific & Technical Instruments 45.83 971.2 62.5 56.18 6.32 72
Shipping 32 571.56 38 31.73 6.27 50
Drugs - Generic 50 1300 75 68.75 6.25 8
Auto Parts Wholesale 75 1525 81.25 75 6.25 4
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials 36.59 1259.99 75.71 69.57 6.14 41
REIT - Diversified 50 830.64 59.72 53.65 6.07 18
Diversified Investments 31.18 676.2 39.99 33.99 6 93
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 45.78 965.93 59.94 53.98 5.96 83
Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks 21.05 183.81 17.98 12.25 5.73 95
Staffing & Outsourcing Services 48 977.55 60 54.29 5.71 25
Industrial Metals & Minerals 31.03 1131.35 67.24 61.55 5.69 58
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services 52.27 941.91 59.66 54.01 5.65 44
Foreign Utilities 50 1222.5 68.75 63.25 5.5 8
Security & Protection Services 29.41 709.56 47.06 41.58 5.48 17
Gaming Activities 27.27 481.77 31.82 26.36 5.46 11
Accident & Health Insurance 45.45 1152.76 68.18 62.73 5.45 11
Movie Production, Theaters 23.08 542.85 33.93 28.57 5.36 13
Data Storage Devices 42.11 1161.09 61.84 56.64 5.2 19
Regional - Pacific Banks 25 325.8 27.57 22.47 5.1 64
Meat Products 75 1461.09 80.87 75.81 5.06 12
Industrial Equipment Wholesale 41.67 985.85 67.31 62.31 5 12
Medical Practitioners 50 1050 50 45 5 4
Confectioners 66.67 1150.04 66.67 61.67 5 6
Business Software & Services 48.81 1061.98 57.82 52.9 4.92 84
Wholesale, Other 50 1087.53 63.54 58.75 4.79 8
Savings & Loans 20 285.82 20.21 15.67 4.54 120
Specialty Chemicals 46.51 1004.46 61.27 56.76 4.51 43
Life Insurance 55.17 1070.39 62.07 57.71 4.36 29
Processed & Packaged Goods 55.32 1136.53 62.77 58.44 4.33 47
Air Services, Other 85.71 1514.26 92.86 88.57 4.29 7
Technical & System Software 57.69 1182.61 65.38 61.15 4.23 26
Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits 31.03 975.09 57.33 53.18 4.15 58
Investment Brokerage - Regional 29.41 761.92 35.29 31.18 4.11 17
Auto Parts 58.82 1272.96 77.21 73.4 3.81 34
Home Improvement Stores 75 1300 81.25 77.5 3.75 4
Regional - Southeast Banks 28.89 352.6 27.22 23.56 3.66 45
Electronic Equipment 38.89 874.26 48.61 45 3.61 18
Oil & Gas Pipelines 100 1822.08 100 96.45 3.55 31
Internet Information Providers 27.78 841.87 40.97 37.43 3.54 36
Drug Manufacturers - Other 29.85 616.38 33.83 30.29 3.54 67
Electronics Wholesale 58.82 1293.71 64.71 61.24 3.47 17
Semiconductor - Specialized 37.21 1016.98 57.52 54.08 3.44 43
Computer Peripherals 39.39 966.57 56.42 53.01 3.41 33
Diversified Electronics 43.48 963.11 56.08 52.75 3.33 46
Diagnostic Substances 13.33 419.75 21.08 17.78 3.3 30
Printed Circuit Boards 58.82 1223.55 69.12 65.88 3.24 17
Personal Services 52.38 989.76 51.19 47.98 3.21 21
Diversified Communication Services 47.22 1101.84 57.64 54.43 3.21 36
Appliances 75 1366.66 78.13 75 3.13 8
Catalog & Mail Order Houses 52.17 1166.45 63.04 60 3.04 23
Regional - Southwest Banks 30 343.33 25 22 3 30
Consumer Services 61.54 1241.67 65.39 62.5 2.89 13
Recreational Goods, Other 42.86 850.03 42.86 40 2.86 7
Regional - Midwest Banks 21.43 224.03 19.64 16.79 2.85 56
Synthetics 43.48 917.39 55.44 52.61 2.83 23
General Contractors 22.22 794.41 41.67 38.89 2.78 9
Biotechnology 19.41 495.41 27.13 24.39 2.74 170
Drug Manufacturers - Major 56 1013.27 62 59.29 2.71 25
Medical Appliances & Equipment 37.35 808.24 45.95 43.26 2.69 83
Business Services 41.28 985.46 52.22 49.55 2.67 109
General Building Materials 48.15 918.53 55.56 52.96 2.6 27
Industrial Equipment & Components 35.71 993.93 60.78 58.19 2.59 28
Specialized Health Services 46.43 1040.86 56.25 53.74 2.51 28
Broadcasting - Radio 75 1308.35 70.84 68.33 2.51 12
Building Materials Wholesale 50 780 50 47.5 2.5 4
Home Furnishing Stores 66.67 1783.32 95.83 93.33 2.5 6
Drug Related Products 57.14 994.77 57.14 54.76 2.38 21
Surety & Title Insurance 7.69 261.51 11.54 9.23 2.31 13
Computers Wholesale 44.44 1092.2 44.44 42.22 2.22 9
Industrial Electrical Equipment 33.33 981.29 51.12 49 2.12 51
CATV Systems 36.84 1093.7 55.26 53.16 2.1 19
Paper & Paper Products 75 1516.24 88.54 86.53 2.01 24
REIT - Residential 83.33 1321.89 88.89 86.9 1.99 18
Processing Systems & Products 16.67 591.7 33.34 31.41 1.93 12
Packaging & Containers 77.78 1610.81 88.89 86.99 1.9 18
Auto Manufacturers - Major 75 1575 90.63 88.75 1.88 8
Regional - Northeast Banks 17.31 310.03 18.75 16.91 1.84 104
Management Services 25.71 769.25 42.54 40.75 1.79 35
Semiconductor- Memory Chips 77.78 1522.26 80.56 78.89 1.67 9
Information Technology Services 32.14 853.52 41.47 39.8 1.67 28
Communication Equipment 30.26 833.83 43.26 41.65 1.61 76
REIT - Industrial 84.62 1207.71 88.47 86.93 1.54 13
Real Estate Development 33.33 513.32 30.83 29.33 1.5 9
Office Supplies 33.33 788.69 47.62 46.19 1.43 6
Property & Casualty Insurance 44.58 986.5 51.51 50.11 1.4 83
Wireless Communications 33.33 820.92 42.71 41.32 1.39 48
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 72.73 1318.21 84.09 82.73 1.36 11
Diversified Machinery 47.83 1144.28 62.37 61.04 1.33 46
Property Management 42.11 1011.13 53.95 52.63 1.32 38
Medical Instruments & Supplies 46.15 856.9 49.04 47.72 1.32 78
Semiconductor - Broad Line 34.78 1199.01 67.39 66.09 1.3 23
Education & Training Services 34.48 874.5 46.61 45.5 1.11 29
Gas Utilities 62.96 1333.02 75.93 74.84 1.09 27
Grocery Stores 31.58 816.69 36.85 35.79 1.06 19
Toys & Games 27.27 564.49 31.82 30.91 0.91 11
Photographic Equipment & Supplies 66.67 1050.63 62.5 61.67 0.83 6
Publishing - Periodicals 33.33 587.76 37.78 37.11 0.67 9
Medical Laboratories & Research 25 764.04 37.5 36.87 0.63 20
Asset Management 46.34 1069.33 57.32 56.72 0.6 41
Foreign Money Center Banks 45 1250.01 62.5 62.02 0.48 20
Application Software 46.67 1234.18 61.67 61.22 0.45 60
Specialty Retail, Other 53.13 1222.63 62.5 62.05 0.45 32
General Entertainment 40 989.09 60 59.57 0.43 15
Trucking 37.5 793.26 52.08 51.67 0.41 24
Metal Fabrication 33.33 1116.68 64.58 64.17 0.41 12
Regional Airlines 40 927.5 50.63 50.25 0.38 15
Agricultural Chemicals 21.43 1050.01 57.15 57.14 0.01 14
Internet Service Providers 20 740 20 20 0 5
Housewares & Accessories 100 1775 100 100 0 5
Specialty Eateries 100 1740 100 100 0 5
Advertising Agencies 44.44 1155.58 61.11 61.11 0 9
Toy & Hobby Stores 0 200 0 0 0 1
Recreational Vehicles 57.14 1114.28 64.29 64.29 0 7
Long Distance Carriers 33.33 633.27 33.33 33.33 0 3
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified 100 1500 100 100 0 2
Personal Products 57.14 1142.66 67.86 67.92 -0.06 21
Small Tools & Accessories 40 970 47.5 48 -0.5 10
Electric Utilities 44.64 967.88 58.48 59.05 -0.57 56
Cement 14.29 771.44 32.15 32.86 -0.71 7
Jewelry Stores 40 980 45 46 -1 5
Telecom Services - Foreign 44 1116.27 50.04 51.27 -1.23 25
Publishing - Books 57.14 1128.56 57.14 58.57 -1.43 7
Technical Services 23.53 671.3 30.88 32.35 -1.47 17
Multimedia & Graphics Software 25 525 30 31.5 -1.5 20
Waste Management 46.67 964.17 60 61.5 -1.5 15
Conglomerates 69.23 1407.67 71.15 73.08 -1.93 13
Railroads 41.18 967.25 54.41 56.47 -2.06 17
Insurance Brokers 38.46 850.82 38.46 40.58 -2.12 13
Entertainment - Diversified 55.56 1272.26 61.12 63.34 -2.22 9
Farm Products 28.57 1252.36 57.14 59.4 -2.26 14
Steel & Iron 27.27 1156.19 62.12 64.85 -2.73 33
Rental & Leasing Services 60.87 1329.55 72.83 75.65 -2.82 23
Copper 28.57 1399.97 57.14 60 -2.86 7
Information & Delivery Services 50 1155.54 55 58 -3 10
Drug Stores 20 894.29 35 38 -3 5
Pollution & Treatment Controls 20 790 40 43 -3 10
Beverages - Soft Drinks 31.25 994.98 43.75 46.83 -3.08 16
Chemicals - Major Diversified 77.78 1718.06 94.79 97.92 -3.13 9
Healthcare Information Services 18.18 934.1 39.77 43.41 -3.64 11
Diversified Utilities 55.56 1156.09 68.52 72.22 -3.7 27
Telecom Services - Domestic 38.1 994.16 52.38 56.24 -3.86 21
Water Utilities 38.46 601.27 40.38 44.29 -3.91 13
Nonmetallic Mineral Mining 28.57 1098.21 50 54.29 -4.29 7
Basic Materials Wholesale 37.5 948.6 46.88 51.25 -4.37 8
Department Stores 44.44 1300.03 55.56 60 -4.44 9
Electronics Stores 50 1166.72 58.34 63.34 -5 6
Mortgage Investment 23.08 563.75 18.77 23.98 -5.21 26
Foreign Regional Banks 35.29 1323.54 57.36 62.98 -5.62 17
Food Wholesale 44.44 1000.01 47.22 53.34 -6.12 9
Beverages - Brewers 42.86 1435.73 60.72 67.14 -6.42 7
Cigarettes 57.14 1333.33 67.86 74.76 -6.9 7
Auto Parts Stores 20 900 35 42 -7 5
Major Integrated Oil & Gas 9.09 1231.86 54.55 61.82 -7.27 11
Music & Video Stores 75 1075 56.25 67.5 -11.25 4
Gold 6.38 1154.76 34.04 47.66 -13.62 47
Silver 0 1522.24 55.56 72.22 -16.66 9
Aluminum 0 1475 68.75 87.5 -18.75 4

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Earnings Summary

It was a busy week on the earnings list, and the results were pretty disappointing:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - GMCR

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - LANC, NEU, SXE

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - ALGT, HWKN, OFG, SBSI

The relative strength spreadsheet is now done. The earnings spreadsheet will probably be uploaded early tomorrow.

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Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. The first 3 columns are the tickers that are held over from last week's list, the next 3 columns are the new stocks of this week's list, and the last 2 columns are the stocks that dropped off. There were about 2100 stocks total that are within the top 25% of the 52 week range, a slight drop from previous weeks.


Hold-overs from last week


New this week

Drop offs
AAPL ELX RMBS
ACF INTC
AEIS LLTC
ACL EPB SGI
ACOR ISRG
AET LRCX
AEC ETP SHLD
AIZ IVR
AM MAIL
AHD F SHW
AKS JPM
AMAT MAKO
AMED FHN SKT
ALGT KITD
ARE MAT
AMLN FINL SLXP
ALTR LFT
ARST MDRX
AMMD FMBI SNDK
APKT LIFE
ATI MEA
ANW FNSR SORL
BBT LTD
BBBB MSTR
AOI FRO SPA
BHI LYV
BDN NEP
APL FUR SSYS
BKCC MGM
CAGC NVMI
ARB HUM STST
BPFH MTW
CALM NYT
ASEI IMAX SXCI
BRKR NFLX
CCME OEH
ASYS JAZZ TASR
BWA NKTR
CGEN PDC
ATML JEF THC
BWLD NVE
CHOP PDCO
BBBY KFN TIF
CLB NVLS
CI PVA
BIDU KFT TK
CMG NWL
CKSW PXD
BMR LEN TLP
CNU PAY
CMFO QLGC
BMRN LGCY TMRK
COF PCX
CNK QSFT
BPW LXP TPX
COH PLXS
CPLP QSII
BRY MAPP TRGL
COLB PRXL
CYBS RBN
CAKE MMR TXRH
CPO PTEN
CYD RIG
CEU MNI TXT
CPWR PXP
CYH RSO
CLFC MNKD UTHR
CRS RF
EDU SAFM
CLNE MNTA VIT
CTXS SANM
FAST SHAW
CMA MR VOLC
CVD SBGI
GFRE SNX
CPT MRX VVTV
CXO SBNY
GOOG SPG
CPX MSPD WERN
DECK SCHW
GPRE SWC
CQP MTB WHX
DXCM SHLM
GTI TC
CREE MU WLP
EBAY SLM
HMA TIE
CRL NGLS WPRT
EGP STX
HMIN TSN
CRM NLX WSM
EMC TCBI
HOG TWI
CRUS NRF XRTX
EQIX TE
HS TXI
CTEL NWBI XTEX
EVVV TGB
HTCH UMPQ
CVBF OSIS XTXI
FCS VMW
ICE UVE
CVVT OZRK YUII
FIT WBS
ICLK VITC
CYTX PETS

FITB WDC
IDTI VNR
DAL PFCB

FLIR WLT
INSP VRX
DCT PKI

FSC WMB
IOC WOR
DPZ REXX

GOV XL
IPSU WRC
DRH RICK

HAL XLNX
KGS WRI




HBAN ZION
KHD WRLD




HRB ZRAN
KNDI WSO




ICLR

KNX

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today. I may combine the "relative strength by industry" posts, so I will post it when I have the data plugged in to my database, which may be today, but I'm not counting on it.

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