With not much driving the market today, it did just about nothing. We did put another pin into the resistance at 1175, but it still stands, and the technicals do appear to be weakening. MACD is so close to a crossover that it is tempting to go short in anticipation, but anticipating moves in this market has been extremely dangerous. We have some distribution here, but not enough to convince anyone a top is in. the bulls (those who aren't already in) can only wait for the pullback that gives another buying opportunity, the bears are waiting for the catalyst that kills this rally (and there are plenty of them lurking out there). Until one or the other happens, it's basically sit on your hands time.
The Russell 2000 had a big lead this morning, but it shrunk by day's end. This is now visibly weakening, MACD crossed over several days ago, and the bonce up is pretty anemic. If this doesn't strengthen I will be looking for the pullback scenario.
XLF was notably weak today, and seems to have a "line of death" at 16.10. Several attempts to get above it have been thrown back, leading to today's drop, which comes on low volume. This has gone nearly straight up since the February 5th reversal and is overdue for a pullback.
This is a pretty bullish looking pattern is crude oil, which has bounced off the 50dma and could be headed for a breakout. MACD and ATR are both telling us a move might be coming, and a strong move over 83.50 could send this up over 90. That won't be particularly helpful to this recovery.
Treasury yields are also setting up a bullish pattern, very similar to WTIC, except the pattern is much longer. With QE ending, and the Fed no longer sucking up FNM and FRE garbage, this could well be over 40 very soon.
There no seems to be some indecision in th market. While the leaders continue to hold up, some sectors are starting to weaken. There may be a lot of doubts about the recovery we are supposedly having, but those doubts have been there for over a year now, and it hasn't fazed the market. But at some point reality os going to hit, and I think it will be sooner than later.
I will have the new highs update shortly.