Wednesday New Highs

There were 22 new highs today, here is the list. Pay particular attention to the industries.



These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list.

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
ABII	14.42	21.02%		VRUS	4.78	-7.85%
IDT	7.14	9.54%		LOOP	3.46	-0.81%
STR	4.3	0.73%		RNR	1.98	-0.48%
RBCN	2.45	7.90%		MELI	1.86	-2.90%
MNRO	1.89	2.06%		TCO	1.79	-2.66%
ABC	1.76	0.09%		HME	1.68	-2.93%
LZ	1.65	1.12%		SBUX	1.66	-2.84%
HCP	1.59	0.00%		ARE	1.65	-0.64%
OXM	1.55	2.15%		CTRP	1.64	-0.13%
AVGO	1.54	0.48%		DPS	1.59	-1.06%
CRM	1.51	0.48%		AGP	1.56	-3.59%
				MENT	1.54	-3.28%
				LXK	1.52	-4.26%
				MILL	1.51	-6.65%

The Bears Ruin The Picnic

Yesterday;s move back up over 1040, and today's bounce at the open, gave the bulls some encouragement that we we again successfully testing key support, and indeed it held all day, right up unil the last hour, when all hell broke loose. It was straight down for the next 60 minutes, a classic grind em up bear move.. We have now achieved a new low on the SPX, and the line at 1040 was the "bull market-bear market" line, so we are now unofficially in bear market territory.

The second critical index to cross that line was the Nasdaq, now also in a bear market. The conventional wisdom is that the "death cross" of the 50dma and 200dma, which will occur with the exponential averages first, is a "sell signal". Man, if you haven't sold by now, it's way too late.

the Dow industrials look like they are finding support but a closer inspection shows that it, too, has broken it's low. I don't know where support here is, but the fibonacci's say 9493. That's a ways down from here, but we certainly have the momentum to get there.

The Russell 2000 has not yet entered thee dreaded bear zone, but it is very close, and has just that bare sliver of support at 607. I have a downside target here of 580.

While the bulls were waiting for the bounce from yesterday's drop, the bears walked in and made off with the picnic baskets. The market may be pricing in a horrible NFP report Friday, and after today's dreadful ADP report, it will probably get it. Which may be the time to start buying.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

CVU

On of a handful of breakouts and the only gap up that I ssaw, CVU broke out on news of a contract award. This held support at the 50dma while the rest of the market was tanking, but still can't get any volume to speak of. However, if this relative strength continues, it will start attracting attention.

Today's Leading Industry

Name	Stocks	Change
Major Airlines	8	5.13%
Real Estate Development	10	3.04%
Regional Airlines	15	1.95%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	52	1.90%
Toy & Hobby Stores	1	1.62%
Internet Service Providers	8	1.58%
Long Distance Carriers	4	1.52%
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	85	1.47%
Heavy Construction	23	1.43%
Accident & Health Insurance	9	1.43%

Here are the top 10 industries for today.

Major airlines are today's leading industry, with 4 of the 8 stocks having gains over 4% today. These are all biuncing after sharp declines, with CAL having the best relative strength.

Here is the relative strength by industry data. This was a leading group until the April top, and it fell off with the rest of the market, but has bounced back fairly dramatically. This is still one of the strponger groups in the market.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AAPL	-0.68%	-8.25%	-0.07%	-0.30%	0.22%	0.96
BIDU	-2.20%	-15.81%	2.53%	1.87%	0.65%	0.94
CMG	-0.84%	-9.92%	1.13%	1.09%	0.04%	0.71
CTRP	0.50%	-17.25%	3.43%	1.54%	1.86%	1.75
DECK	-0.09%	-13.90%	0.60%	0.42%	0.17%	0.73
LULU	-6.05%	-18.11%	1.38%	1.44%	-0.05%	1.19
MELI	3.63%	-12.02%	1.02%	2.13%	-1.09%	0.91
NFLX	3.55%	-12.89%	-0.99%	1.34%	-2.30%	1.18
ULTA	0.96%	-10.02%	0.12%	1.13%	-1.00%	0.61
VRX	13.45%	-1.64%	0.31%	0.70%	-0.38%	0.54

Here is today's look at the market leadership. Most are getting small bounces after yesterday's disaster. LULU and BIDU are now well under the 50dma and may have a tough time getting back above it. CTRP is getting heavier than normal volume again.

Here is a link to the charts.

Earnings List Changes

Here are the additions to the earnings list for this quarter: BOFI, CAAS, DEST, DHIL, FSYS, FUQI, GPOR, IDSA, IGTE, KID, MED, MEDQ, NAII, NYM, UFPT, VLTR. All are under 30 million shares floating, most have very good 5 year earnings growth, but I placed more emphasis on recent quarters this time. I have been hampered by having to get data from several sources, which means that the data is very unorganized, but that situation is improving radiply. The list is now up to 96, which means that next quarter I will be more aggressive in getting rid of stocks that aren't showing signs of continued growth. The new spreadsheet is uploaded, without the 3rd page, I will update that over the weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update

Yesterday's sudden and massive drop put us into oversold conditions, and the failure to close below 1040 set us up for a bounce today, which probably won't be real strong and so far isn't The first real resistance level should be around 1051, and that will give us a pretty good clue jjust how strong this bounce is. Getting through there will probably get us back up toward yesterday's gap within a day or two, a failure could be big trouble, as the support zone just below 1040 won't hold forever. The ADP employment change numbers, which are usually very good indicators of how the NFP report will look, came in absolutely terrible this morning.  The market may have already priced it in, but the NFP report will probably suck. Leading up today is XLB, with XLE a distant second. XLV is the lagging sector, but XLP and XLU are also weak. Both the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are showing a little strength today, but the TNX is stubbornly staying below 30.  Oil is up slightly, gold down slightly.

I have only 6 new highs so far, and 2 of those are acquisitions. The only thing that is close to a breakout is MNRO. There is nothing to report on the earnngs front. I will be updating the earnings spreadsheet today, so posting may be lighter than normal.

Tuesday New Highs

There were 16 new highs today, here is the list.


These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
IDT	5.89	2.37%		PANL	4.38	-3.02%
MNRO	1.65	2.76%		RLRN	4.28	-5.10%
				LOOP	3.84	-0.64%
				CTRP	3.6	-12.06%
				DPS	3.41	-0.74%
				RBCN	2.86	-10.68%
				HCP	2.5	-0.74%
				ABC	2.13	-2.49%
				CRUS	2.1	-6.90%
				BVF	1.96	-2.94%
				AKAM	1.9	-8.66%
				PRGO	1.86	-0.15%
				DGIT	1.86	-11.85%
				OVTI	1.81	-7.18%
				LULU	1.67	-5.34%
				PLT	1.64	-5.17%
				OC	1.63	-2.57%
				ENZN	1.63	-5.85%
				AVGO	1.62	-3.59%
				COO	1.62	-3.64%
				DFT	1.62	-3.99%
				DTV	1.57	-4.21%
				MOH	1.56	-2.06%
				CPX	1.56	-3.28%
				AAPL	1.55	-4.55%
				MILL	1.55	-10.58%
				COH	1.51	-5.18%
				CRM	1.51	-6.43%

There is nothing to report on the earnings front.

On A Knife Edge

Whatever it was that triggered it, the selling was massive right from the start, and never really let up as any attempted rally was squashed quickly. It was a slow, agonizing grind down to the "line of death" at 1040, which held briefly, but gave way just before the close, only to see a short, sharp rally get ius just above it. You can't see the volume bare, but I highlighted the number, and you can see it was very heavy. This will put us into another "market in correction" as a second follow through day has failed. You will probably see many analysts scoffing at IBD for having two follow through days in a row fail, but remember that it was IBD themselves that reminded us that June and July follow throughs are prone to failure. I can make fun of IBD with the best of them, when I actually read an editorial (very rare nowadays), but I have learned the hard way not to question their market calls.

No doubt contributing mightily to the bearish sentiment was the overnight collapse of the Shanghai composite, reached a new low on a massive move down.With a 50dma well under the 200dma, this can only be called a bear market, and with China being looked to as the primary driver of recovery, this doesn't look good.

Also contributing was the TNX, in a freefall and at a level not seen since April 2009, when it established a pivot point at 30.50, which it sliced right through today. It might have some tecchnical support at 29, but I;m not going to count on it.

Crude oil made a big move down, but this is actually looking in decent shape by comparison. Today's failure at the 200dma isn't particularly thrilling, but this should have decent support at 74. With U.S. poffshore production in limbo it will take another big drop in demand for this to tank, but with economic collapse nearing in Europe, that just might happen.

The Russell 2000 used the 200dema as a launching pad - down. This is now right at support at the early June low close. The swing low is not far away, but I don't know how much support we will get there, probably not much.

1040 seems to be the current line in the sand between bull and bear markets. Today was pretty devestating to the bull case, especially after the last two days where the market appeared to be carving out a bottom. it appears that rallies are going to be sharp but very short lasting, wonderful for day traders but death for those who are looking to establish longer term positions.

Due to a lack of decent charts, I won't have any individual charts tonight, so I will put the extra time to good use. I will have the new highs update shortly.

Today's Leading Industry

Name	Stocks	Change
Manufactured Housing	4	-0.30%
Auto Parts Stores	5	-0.56%
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	11	-1.01%
Personal Products	19	-1.03%
Drug Manufacturers - Major	32	-1.19%
Specialized Health Services	26	-1.24%
Cleaning Products	7	-1.26%
Home Health Care	10	-1.33%
Discount, Variety Stores	13	-1.38%
Drug Delivery	18	-1.45%

Here are today's "top ten" industry performers. As you can see, none of the 212 industry groups are positive today, but a few are getting hit less than others. It's that kind of day.

Options Data

Today's unusual options trading, from whatstrading.com.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AAPL	-0.46%	-8.12%	-4.45%	-2.99%	-1.51%	1.45
BIDU	-2.38%	-16.11%	-7.27%	-3.95%	-3.45%	1.6
CMG	-1.09%	-10.33%	-4.51%	-3.22%	-1.34%	1.04
CTRP	-1.88%	-19.23%	-11.22%	-3.95%	-7.58%	4.17
DECK	0.43%	-13.58%	-5.00%	-3.06%	-2.00%	1.06
LULU	-5.17%	-17.14%	-2.90%	-0.54%	-2.37%	1.59
MELI	4.39%	-11.54%	-3.93%	-1.43%	-2.53%	0.87
NFLX	6.12%	-11.20%	-3.38%	-1.45%	-1.96%	0.66
ULTA	2.75%	-8.56%	-5.27%	-2.59%	-2.75%	0.94
VRX	15.01%	-0.75%	-0.69%	0.38%	-1.07%	0.94

The last couple of days I noted that, although the market was breaking down, the market leadership was not. That is no lon ger the case, as several of the leading stocks are getting hit today and breaking down. Half are now under the 50dma, all gapped down and only one, VRX, up after the open. Particularly troubling is volume is higher today.

Here is a link to some pretty ugly charts.

Banksters Laundering Drug Cartel Money

As if it wasn't bad enough that the banks have looted the Treasury, destroyed the housing market, and robbed credit card customers, it now appears that they have also been laundering drug money. In particular, Wachovia (now part of Wells Fargo  - nice acquisition, guys) was quite blatant in ignoring U.S. laws.

Number of indictments- Zero

Update Number 2

Here is an update of this morning's update. 1049 didn't last very long as a pivot point, but it may now be resistance and unless we get back above it the market may be in severe trouble here. 1040 once again held, but there is a lot of downward pressure right now,

Tuesday Morning Update

Well, this is unpleasant. For the first 20 minutes this morning the market went into free fall,busting through the pivot at 1067 pretty easily. With pivots at 1085 and 1067, I calculate the next one to be at 1049, which is just about where the low close is during this entire correction. Falling through that would bolster the bearish case and challenge the ultimate support at 1040. We got our first bounce minutes ago at 1051, but will likely retest that again in short order. Most sectors are getting creamed, the worst being XLI, XLK, and XLY, with XLP the only sector down less than 1%. The dreaded TNX has finally done it, popped the 30 level, so we are seeing a prettty massive flight into treasuries. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both lagging very badly, oil and gold are both down, and the dollar is rising against everything except the yen. Things are not looking good this morning, but I can't say that it is a surprise, given the developing crises around the world.

I have only 6 new highs so far, and 2 of those are acquisitions, and nothing breaking out. There is nothing to report on the earnings front. Days like this sure make the morning update easy.

Monday New Highs

There were 65 new highs today, here is the link.


These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list.

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
IDT	13.92	16.14%		MILL	2.84	-7.75%
ENTR	2.86	6.52%		LCUT	2.68	-0.19%
BVF	2.68	1.13%		COO	2.33	-0.07%
OVTI	2.42	5.97%		NP	1.96	-3.38%
LOOP	2.31	2.38%		EPB	1.75	-0.21%
CRUS	1.79	2.86%		UXG	1.64	-1.70%
SLH	1.67	1.25%		ANV	1.62	-3.98%

I have nothing to report on the earnings front.

Post G20 Nausea

Today we seem to be in no man's land, with the bulls defending yesterday's low, the bears yesterday's high. We have a near MACD crossover, but below the zero level, which could easily lead to a whipsaw.We also have a coming death cross (the simple averages look a little better) and on the exponential averages it appears unavoidable. Volume dropped off quite a bit, and with the end of the quarter coming up we could see a bigger drop after July starts as the summer vacation season starts.  In other words, we could be stuck in this rnage bound hell for a couple of months.

The Nasdaq isn't really giving us much help here. The price relative line is usually a pretty good indication of whether we are in a bullish or bearish phase, but since the top in April has essentially flat lined.

If you want the bearish case, this is about the best you can get right now, The price relative on the Dow industrials started rising after the to in April, and are still in an uptrend. That may sound like it is good, and I;m sure there are plenty of analysts who are spinning it as a "rotation into blue chips", biut if you look at the price relative on this for, oh, say, the last 3 years, it is quite a reliable indicator.

The Russell 2000 is facing resistance from a pivot point and moving averages, and has a slowly down trending price relative. This is looking slightly bearish, a stance that only breaking out past the previous high will change, and at this point I think that is highly unlikely.

Well, this is interesting on many counts. It appears that the forex market is still driving the stock market,but not the dollar, not the euro. It appears that the yen, and the yen carry trade, is now leading stocks around by the nose. Notice the May 6 candle. Somehow I suspect that will put the final nail in the coffin of the "fat finger" theory.

The G20 meeting this weekend, in the end, did just about nothing, as we ended the day right about where we started.  All I saw was an agreement for everyone to cut their budget deficits in half by 2013. Good idea, if we are still around in 2013.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

IDT

There wasn't much special about IDT other than being the highest relative volume stock on the new highs list, and there was no news on it, so I took a closer look. Here is another example of something I have been seeing lately. In March it established a breakout point at 7.95, broke out about a month later, extending up to 9.59 before it's first pullback. Some quick arithmetic would project a high at 11.23 (9.59-7.95=1.64; 9.59+1.64=11.23). It ultimately hit 11.30 before today's breakout. Probably just another in about a hundred coincidences in the last few weeks.

CRWS

CRWS was the only earnings breakout I noticed, but one thing I didn't notice was how painfully thinly traded thsi thing is. Unfortuantely, any volume at all can throw this pretty wildly in one direction or another, and it is probably quite unpredictable which way. The chart isn't that bad, but until this starts getting a decent level of average volume, I would not go near it.

Today's Leading Industry

Name	Stocks	Change
Accident & Health Insurance	9	2.29%
Semiconductor- Memory Chips	9	2.16%
Networking & Communication Devices	20	2.01%
Semiconductor - Broad Line	23	1.88%
Cigarettes	7	1.88%
Beverages - Soft Drinks	15	1.70%
Building Materials Wholesale	4	1.68%
Medical Equipment Wholesale	8	1.60%
Internet Service Providers	8	1.53%
Food Wholesale	9	1.43%

Here are today's top 10 industry performers.

Today;s leading industry is Accident and health insurance, a 9 stock group lead by AFL, which is making a good move today. It is a formerly strong industry that appears to have fallen down badly during the recent correction. In general the charts here are showing pretty poor relative strength.

Options Data

Today's unusual options trading, from whatstrading.com.

Last week I started an experiment in "predicting" the closing price of 5 ETFs based on options open interest. Last week, based on open interest for July options, I had the following predictions: SPY 110, DIA 102, QQQQ 46, IWM 65, and XLF 14. Based on data collected this weekend, the new predictions are SPY 109, DIA 102, QQQQ  45, IWM 63,  and XLF 14. I will do this every week until expiration to see how much t changes, and how accurate it is.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
AAPL	4.22%	-3.95%	0.48%	0.37%	0.11%	0.93
BIDU	7.67%	-7.77%	-0.26%	-0.22%	-0.04%	0.47
CMG	4.68%	-5.39%	0.14%	-0.05%	0.19%	0.43
CTRP	11.82%	-8.13%	-2.00%	-2.26%	0.27%	1.05
DECK	6.40%	-8.67%	-0.73%	-0.69%	-0.04%	0.5
LULU	-0.31%	-12.69%	-1.14%	-0.83%	-0.32%	0.93
MELI	9.40%	-7.52%	-1.17%	-2.08%	0.93%	1.29
NFLX	11.30%	-7.42%	0.41%	-0.18%	0.58%	0.51
ULTA	7.74%	-4.30%	2.73%	2.44%	0.28%	1.25
VRX	16.09%	0.91%	1.08%	1.12%	-0.04%	0.71

This data is about an hour or so old, thanks to yet another Adobe reader induced crash which rendered me helpless for for a while, bit here is today's look at the market leadership. VRX is the only one so far to hit a new high, and LULU looks like it may be getting into a little trouble. Other than that, no panic yet.


Here is a link to the charts.

Gold Gets Smacked

Hmmmmm......

Breakout Candidates

There isn't much going on on the breakout front, but we do have a few. These are the top 4 relative volume breakouts. CRWS is on earnings.

This Week's Economic Reports

Here are this week's economic reports. It looks like a pretty busy week.

By contrast, the Treasury auction schedule looks pretty light.

Monday Morning Update

The 10 day low is 1068, so as long as we stay above that we are in decent shape. The first resistance level to leap out at me is 1088, which puts the pivot point at 1077, which we went through right at the open. Barring any major news calamity, we should be in a pretty narrow range today, as it does appear that we are trying to carve out yet another bottom. The leading sector (and only green) is XLP, getting shellacked are XLB and XLE. That is not going to help us. Also of no help are the Nasdaq, lagging noticeably, and the Russell 2000, lagging very badly. Oil is down, gold is up, and the TNX gapped down big and is threatening to break 30. Make fun of the bond guys all you want (yeah, Bill Gross is an egghead), they are very rarely wrong.

There are 20 new highs so far. I have attempted breakouts in CRWS, PPO, NEM,  and SLW. We have nothing on either watchlist scheduled to report all week, and a quick glance at this morning's reports shows up nothing.

Earnings List Changes

I am going to go light on the deletions this quarter, again, until I get a full, or near full, list, and 3 of them are coming off because they are acquisitions They are AIPC, AEPI, APSG, NGA, and SXE. CYAN is right on the bubble, but a second look at it's numbers convinced me to leave it on for another quarter. I am still working on the additions, and have about 20 candidates at the moment, so I will probably hold those off until Tuesday or Wedsneday. The spreadsheet will be updated Wednesday.

Bank Body Count

We have 3 more banks down this week:
  - Peninsula Bank, Florida
  - First National Bank, Georgai
  - High Desert State Bank, New Mexico

That brings the 2010  Bank Body Count to 86. With 6 full months to go, it appears we are easily on track to beat last year's total.

Earnings Schedule This Week

Well, I think this is a first. I have absolutely nothing on either watch list reporting this week. I will be monitoring daily reports so if anything does come up I will revise this, but it looks like I might have a little time off this week.

Earnings Growth Charts

I had two stocks from the earnings list reporting last week, so I have the time to do both quarterly and annual growth charts. As usual, from top to bottom the lines are: black, revenue  growth rate; red, EPS growth rate; black, price; red, EPS; blue, price relative to SPX; and black bars volume. On the annual charts, red lines are EPS, light blue revenue.

CYAN is a stock that happened to be rebounding from a sharp drop in earnings when I was updating the sheet a while back, and I put it on. Since then it has reverted to slow or no growth, and price has come flying right back down. This is not the type of stock I am looking for and will most likely get cut on this quarter's update.

Here is the annual EPS and revenue, which look only slightly better.

SNX, by contrast, is the type of stock we are looking for.As you can see, both earnings and revenue growth have rebounded after sharp drops, and price recently hit an all time high. This is in a long base pattern, as the market is waiting to see if growth continues or flattens out, as so far it appears to be doing.

On the annual growth chart, you see that while price collapsed during the market crash, earnings and revenue did not. In the last fiscal year revenue did drop slightly, but we are halfway through the current fiscal year and so far revenue is on track for growth again.

After I get the earnings sheet updated, I am planning on making improvements to this chart. While annual growth is good to look at, it is quarterly growth that drives big moves in price, and when we are in the heart of earnings season, there are too many stocks reporting to do two charts for each. I need to find a readable way to incorporate both charts into one. It may end up that I will need to find another software platforn to work with.