New Leadership Scan

My "quick and dirty" leadership scan yielded 19 stocks his week, which I sorted by 20 day v/ms and took the top 10.  The table below contains the criteria screened for, with the last column being the difference between the 50day and 200day moving average columns (the higher the number, the farther apart the 50 day and 200 day are).  Normally I require the stocks to be above the 50dma, but have been relaxing that in recent weeks. Note that VRX, perrenially on the list, has dropped to 11, and if you look at the chart, it has been rising on declining volume. I have been thinking of using some of the criteria here on the relative strength scan, which does not take fundamentals into account, and see how the lists compare. if I have time tomorrow I will try it.

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms
IDSA	94.16	0.27	0.35	0.5	0.93	48.14	0.43
BIDU	96.2	1.51	0.45	0.11	0.46	33.86	0.35
DECK	85.52	0.34	0.28	0.05	0.26	32.53	0.21
CMG	90.56	0.75	0.22	0.04	0.3	28.25	0.26
AAPL	86.06	0.93	0.35	0	0.14	27.92	0.14
MELI	87.72	1.34	0.34	0.08	0.25	25.12	0.17
LULU	82.73	0.53	0.33	0.04	0.22	21.04	0.18
IGTE	98.27	0.66	0.22	0.29	0.62	18.59	0.33
CTB	89.46	0.3	0.37	0.08	0.13	16.17	0.05
SHOO	92.39	0.37	0.24	0.15	0.27	12.95	0.12
VRX	99.24	0.6	0.75	0.13	0.41	12.81	0.28
PRX	78.97	0.5	0.18	-0.02	0.03	11.98	0.05
LZ	91.76	0.36	0.33	0.09	0.15	11.83	0.06
CLB	84.14	0.38	0.49	0.05	0.2	11.1	0.15
CTSH	94.56	0.38	0.23	0.05	0.13	10.75	0.08
ULTA	95.36	0.44	0.17	0.06	0.21	10.57	0.15
ELNK	77.78	0.3	0.45	0.06	0.08	10.27	0.02
HANS	82.49	0.59	0.36	0.04	0.06	10.13	0.02

Earnings Summary

I have 17 stocks from the earnings list known to have reported last week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth: BWLD, HWKN, GTIV

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth: VLTR, CPLA, DEST, GMCR, SYNA

Reporting a quarter of negative growth: ININ, SCL, SKT, TIS, DIN, EMCI, TNDM, RGR, FPO

GMCR had a recent stock split, I believe i have it adjusted for the split, however the point is moot since it now has a float way too large for the earnings list, so it will be coming off on the next update. All spreadsheets are now uploaded, but the relative strength sheet has only the first page as the second page was causing errors. I will try to get that fixed this weekend, unfortunately Google docs gives you absolutely no clue what the problem is.

Relative Strength By Industry

Here are the top 10 industries with the biggest weekly increase in the percentage of stocks in the group that are in the relative strength range. As expected most are relatively weak group with plenty of room to move up, with the notable exceptions of  beverages-brewers.

These are th top 10 differences between the 4 week and 10 week averages. these would be the groups that have the strongest short term uptrends.

These are the top 10 groups with the highest 40 week averages. These are the long term strongest groups. Any group with 5 or less stocks should be taken with a grain of salt.

The spreadsheet has the complete data.

Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There were 1107 stocks in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, a slight improvement over last week. However, after removing all stocks with a 20 day v/ms of less than 10k, the were only 287 left, indicating that a lot of the stocks trading in the relative strength range are thinly traded. The left 4 columns are the stocks from last week retained this week, the middle 3 columns are the new stocks this week, and the right 3 are the stocks coming off this week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained				New			Off
NDN	CPX	KNX	RBCN	AAP	ENSG	NTSC	ABC	GDI	RURL
ADTN	CXO	LRCX	SNH	ACC	EP	NWBI	AEC	GSM	SABA
AEIS	CLB	LSCC	AOS	AHD	ESS	NXTM	AEL	GYRO	SAPE
ALTR	CMI	LTM	SOLF	AKR	EZCH	ODFL	AHT	HSY	SBP
AEZ	CYT	LLTC	SRCL	ALK	FIS	OIS	AI	HYC	SBUX
ACF	DGIT	LOGM	SUN	ALV	FMC	ORLY	ALKS	IRDM	SFLY
AAPL	DLTR	LZ	SWSI	APKT	FOE	PCAR	AMT	L	SHLO
ARNA	DPS	MFB	SKT	APL	GENZ	PRX	ARO	LCUT	SLH
AIZ	DXPE	MRX	TPX	AVB	GRT	RVBD	ASFI	LGF	STAA
AAWW	ETN	MENT	TGH	AXTI	HOT	S	AVGO	LMIA	STRI
AZO	EMC	MCHP	TSCO	BBG	HRC	SBAC	AZZ	LULU	SUMR
BEZ	EBS	MAA	UDR	BRCM	HS	SKX	BJ	MAIN	SVR
BLL	ENTR	NNN	ULTA	CAP	HSWI	SLG	CBRL	MELI	SXCI
BIIB	EQR	NP	UTEK	CASY	IDSA	TCO	CGX	MNRO	THOR
BMR	EXR	NZ	PANL	CAT	ILMN	TGI	COO	MVO	TIBX
BVF	FFIV	NR	VCI	CAVM	IPG	TKR	CPWR	NEM	TK
BWA	FDO	NI	VIT	CBG	ISLN	TMK	CTCM	NHP	UCTT
SAM	GWW	OHI	VNR	CHRW	IVN	TNK	DE	NIHD	UXG
BXP	HAS	OVTI	VQ	CLW	JAS	UA	DFZ	OPEN	VNO
BRE	HCP	OXM	VTR	CMG	JKS	URI	DISCA	PACR	VRTS
CPB	HCN	PVG	VMED	CNQR	JLL	VPHM	DTV	PCYC	VSI
CBL	HME	PRGO	VHC	COBKD	KEY	WFMI	ENOC	PETD	WINA
CTL	HSNI	PII	VMW	CPLA	KIM	WYN	ENZN	PKG	WPI
CQP	IACI	PWER	WBC	CRR	KSU		EOG	PLT
CRUS	IDT	KWR	WERN	CVTI	LTD		EPB	POL
CTXS	IGTE	Q	WLL	DLR	LXK		EPR	PPO
CMS	INFA	RHT	XLNX	DX	MAR		EWBC	RBC
CNH	IR	RVI		EL	MOH		FAF	RLRN
CTSH	INTU	ROVI		ELNK	MSB		FNSR	ROSE
CLP	KEI	RES		ENDP	NOG		FOSL	ROST

IBD 100

Last week, I noted that the IBD 100 had several large gainers and very few large losers. This week, it's the opposite, as there were several big losers and only a handful of large gainers. JOBS was last week's biggest gainer, and is a stock that, despite a reent increase in average volume, still is running on vapors. A stock that trades this thinly rarely develops really good chart patterns, and this is no exception. Had you bought it last Friday (blue arrow) you would be sitting on a decent gain right now, but there was nothing in the chart indicating that this was a buy. It was really just a crap shoot. And you didn't get a good looking waitress bringing you free drinks.

KWR was the second biggest gainer, and is building the right side of a pretty well formed base. Volume increased as price climbed up, which is a classic bullish sign. This will probably start forming a handle soon, and if it does on light volume, with a declining ATR and rising price relative line, then this will probably have a pretty strong breakout.

VLTR was last week's biggest decliner, and got hit on earnings, which is too bad because it was in the process of forming a very nice base. Here is another example of why O'Neil never tries to anticipate breakouts. This bounce right off the 200dma, which is a tempting entry point, but a little too obvious. I wiould wait a few days to see if this settles down and holds the 200 before even contemplating an entry, as this is still a falling knife.

AKAM was the second biggest decliner, and also got hit on earnings, but the pattern here wasn't especially bullish. Even though it was holding the 50dma, the price relative line was weakening and CMF had one quite negative, indicating some big money boys were getting out before earnings.

Here is the current distribution day count in IBD: SPX and DOW 3, Nasdaq 2, NYSE composite 1.

Friday New Highs

There were 73 new highs today, here is the list.


Here are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	RS	Percent
Confectioners	5	1	20
Foreign Regional Banks	17	3	17.65
Internet Service Providers	8	1	12.5
Medical Equipment Wholesale	8	1	12.5
Air Delivery & Freight Services	10	1	10
Machine Tools & Accessories	10	1	10
Oil & Gas Pipelines	32	3	9.38
Chemicals - Major Diversified	12	1	8.33
Consumer Services	12	1	8.33
Metal Fabrication	12	1	8.33

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
PWER	6.02	24.80%		THOR	6.18	-13.54%
ARNA	4.87	13.90%		FNSR	2.42	-7.34%
SFLY	2.24	1.05%		CTXS	2.15	-2.91%
VRTS	2.21	5.22%		RES	2.14	-4.69%
ROVI	2.16	5.80%		ENTR	1.81	-1.63%
VMED	2.06	2.48%		SOLF	1.74	-7.25%
AEIS	2.05	8.04%		ACF	1.71	-0.21%
ABC	2.03	3.42%		NR	1.69	-3.73%
CNH	1.96	3.36%		RBCN	1.58	-2.39%
AEZ	1.96	0.14%
BWA	1.91	3.25%
SUN	1.78	4.02%
KEI	1.77	7.26%
KWR	1.77	6.05%
MNRO	1.53	4.19%

I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend.

Fun With Weekly Charts

Here is the chart of the SPX with absolutely no moving averages, and boy does that look nice. We got a little clarity on our current range conditions, and have retraced 50% of the move from the recent low to the recent high, bounced of it, and moved up.  That would put our "macro": pivot point at about 1085, and as long as we can stay above ot we are in pretty good shape.  The area from 1100-1105 is proving to be formidable resistance, but the market does seem to be shaping up for another breakout attempt. Volume has been relatively low on the pullback, and ATR is still dropping, bith signs of a lack of big money selling here.

While I'm not into the prediction game (although I would probably have more readers if I made outlandish predictions laced with foul language and blamed the PPT every time I was wrong), on Fridays I like to have a little fun with the weekly charts. Since the 09 bottom, I have been struck by the similarities with 2006-2007 thayt this market has had, and this correction has had a lot of similarities to the near panic of July-August 2007. We came out of that correction to have an epic rally, hit a new high on the SPX, only to roll over into one of the greatest bear markets ever. Will we do it again? I don';t know, but here is how I think it ill play out if we do. Let's take the recent January high as a pivot point, the June low as the bottom, and project a target from there. I come up with about 1290, which will probably hit about mid to late September.

The Nasdaq has a bit more lofty target here, just about 2600. It does appear to be having a little trouble with the 40 week average, but has put a pin through it and could be ready to use it as a launching pad.

The target on the Dow is about 11800, so don't go rushing out to buy Dow 12000 hats.

This is intersting. The target on the Transports is right at the April high. That fits my scenario, as the transports and the Russell 2000 should both fail to hit new highs before we nose over.

If you remember 2007, you remember that the Russell 2000 topped out in February and despite some epic rallies never hit a new high. If this follows form, it won't this time either. If it does, then my theory gets flushed, and it's all the PPT's fault.

If you are a reader of Tim Knight's blog (I have a link on my blogroll) you have seen the pictures of bars he puts up on Friday, presumably to celebrate the end of the week. I thought I would follow suit with a picture of one of my favorite drinking establishments.


Have a great weekend.

TEN

TEN reported earnings yesterday, and got a nice move on volume, but didn't break out until today. This is a double bottom base (although it looks like a triple bottom, the first two bottoms are too close together), so the O'neil breakout point is 26.80, although it did manage to close at a new high. This is in the auto parts group, which has been pretty strong lately.

BWA

While it is not a breakout, and missed a new high by 5 cents, BWA is notable for a) being on the relative strength list, b)being in a strong group (auto parts), and c) having a very high price relative line. I don't know how tough that resistance at 44.55 is going to be, but if it didn;t get through it on earnings day, it might just have a really tough time with it.

QSFT

QSFT was, for a couple of hours this morning, the only breakout on the new highs list, otherwise it would no have attracted my attention because it just didn;t get volume. The weak price relative line is a problem here, especially considering there are lots of stocks with very strong ones.

Industry Group Weekly Performance

Name	Stocks	Change
Music & Video Stores	4	3.37%
Hospitals	12	3.21%
Farm Products	14	2.65%
Computer Based Systems	6	2.56%
Silver	9	1.95%
Research Services	22	1.80%
Security Software & Services	11	1.80%
Drug Manufacturers - Other	68	1.69%
CATV Systems	18	1.67%
Insurance Brokers	12	1.62%

Here are the top 10 industries on the day.

Name	Stocks	Performance (Week)
Photographic Equipment & Supplies	6	7.20%
Regional - Southeast Banks	45	5.03%
Foreign Money Center Banks	15	3.99%
Major Airlines	8	3.77%
Office Supplies	6	3.51%
Hospitals	12	3.39%
Publishing - Periodicals	9	3.28%
Long-Term Care Facilities	14	3.22%
Life Insurance	29	3.17%
Lodging	15	3.17%
Air Delivery & Freight Services	10	2.99%
Publishing - Books	7	2.98%
Foreign Regional Banks	17	2.97%
Computer Based Systems	6	2.93%
Chemicals - Major Diversified	12	2.86%
Property Management	37	2.82%
Regional - Southwest Banks	29	2.52%
Biotechnology	164	2.48%
Manufactured Housing	4	2.47%
Electronic Equipment	22	2.28%

These are the 20 best performances for the week. tomorrow I will have a fresh batch of relative strength by industry data.

Market Leader Performance

Here is the weekly performance for the 21 stocks I came up with in last week's leadership scan, the top 10 being highlighted in yellow, along with today's change and relative volume. In general, there is nothing in these results to suggest that my scanning method needs to be changed.

Here is a link to the charts.

QSFT

Here is the one breakout I have seen so far. It is on earnings but volume is so far pretty disappointing.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1137.09	R2	1126.03	R4	1114.22	High	1120.26
R2	1126.5	R1	1113.07	R3	1107.88	Low	1097.18
R1	1114.01	P	1102.95	R2	1105.76
P	1103.42	S1	1089.99	R1	1103.65
S1	1090.93	S2	1079.87	S1	1099.41
S2	1080.34			S2	1097.3
S3	1067.85			S3	1095.18
				S4	1088.84

Friday Morning Update

GDP for Q2 came in this morning at 2.4%, which does suck, but then again, was there anyone really expecting it not to suck? Apparently there was, because the market is really struggling on the news. Looking at the chart, it seems that 1088 is where the support is, and that is where we have bounced. It's been a pretty lame bounce so far, so in case it doesn't hold, the next level of support is down near 1074. Leading sectors today are XLF and XLP, lagging is XLK, with several other sectors doing only slightly better. The Nasdaq is lagging, but the Russell 2000 is leading, so I'll be watching for a reversal. Tresaury yields are down, are doing their usual "fill the gap" action, but the gap is pretty big today, it will have a long way to go to fill it. I have oil down big, gold up a bit. The dollar dropped overnight against the yen, but is rising now. So far the evidence points to a reversal.

I have 12 new highs so far, with one breakout, QSFT. These are the stocks I had scheduled to report last night: BEZ -4%, EPR -0.4%, FPO -2.4%, NR -4.9%, PWER 18%, ROVI 4.5%, SUN 0.5%, SYNA -0.7%, THOR -15%. Those scheduled for this morning: BWA 0.8%. That is the last of this week's schedule.

Thursday New Highs

There were 89 new highs today, here is the list


These are the top 10 industries in terms of percentage in the group making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Foreign Regional Banks	17	4	23.53
Publishing - Periodicals	9	2	22.22
Confectioners	5	1	20
Specialty Eateries	5	1	20
Diversified Utilities	27	4	14.81
Major Airlines	8	1	12.5
Medical Equipment Wholesale	8	1	12.5
Electric Utilities	60	7	11.67
Beverages - Brewers	9	1	11.11
CATV Systems	18	2	11.11
Recreational Goods, Other	9	1	11.11
Semiconductor- Memory Chips	9	1	11.11

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
AEZ	7.75	2.38%		LOGM	3.5	-1.34%
ENTR	5.31	16.54%		SFLY	1.99	-4.65%
CTXS	4.29	19.73%		RES	1.93	-3.10%
ARNA	2.5	10.44%		CQP	1.93	-6.32%
VMED	2.37	3.91%		SRCL	1.89	-2.07%
RBCN	1.96	2.65%		SLH	1.88	-7.61%
LRCX	1.92	2.21%		DPS	1.58	-2.90%
KWR	1.84	6.81%		BRE	1.55	-1.12%
ACF	1.78	0.17%
UCTT	1.76	0.18%
WLL	1.65	4.87%
VCI	1.6	5.62%

Once again, I have a gazillion stocks reporting after the close. These are what I have scheduled, along with after hours trading: BEZ 0%, EPR 0%, NR 0%, PWER 14.6%, ROVI 3.4%, SUN 3.2%, THOR -13%, FPO 0%, SYNA 0.9%.