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Friday, December 31, 2010

Friday New Highs

There were 203 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Name Stocks NH Percent
Air Services, Other 7 2 28.57
Aluminum 5 1 20
Basic Materials Wholesale 10 2 20
Foreign Utilities 5 1 20
Housewares & Accessories 5 1 20
Photographic Equipment & Supplies 5 1 20
Telecom Services - Domestic 21 4 19.05
Oil & Gas Pipelines 32 6 18.75
Meat Products 12 2 16.67
Waste Management 18 3 16.67

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:


Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
AFOP 4.43 13.87%
MELI 1.65 -5.04%
BSQR 2.31 2.34%



KEM 2.16 6.11%



2010 In The Can

 Since this week's weekly charts are virtually identical to last week's, and since I missed yesterday's  usual market internals post, I thought today I would look at the percentage of stocks above the 50dma, both short and long term. Here is the last 6 months of the Nasdaq. We are currently at 64.9%, safely above the 50% that typically separates bullish from bearish positions, and in fact have not been below 50 since the market followed through in early September.



 Here is the last 3 years, which is as far as you can go on a Stockcharts free chart.Unfortunately, the last 3 years is all bear market, so it is a little difficult to draw conclusions. I have been using 70 as the "overbought" level, that is, when over 70% of the stocks on the Nasdaq are above the 50dma, you can start looking for a correction. Con versely, 30 seems to be the "oversold" level; if we go below it, it is time to start looking for the market to rally. Above 50 means the market is in rally mode. If we go below 50 and stay there fpr more than a couple of days, then it is safe to say we are in a correction. Judging by where we are now, barring a humongous crash on Monday, we are probably a good week or two from any meaningful drop.



 Here is the NYSE, which, due to the presence of so many ETFs, probably has slightly different levelsthan th Nasdaq. In the 6 month char above I raised the upper line to 75, which looks about right. Here, again, we are safely in bullish territory and rising.

I think it was either late 2007 or early 2009 when the bulk of the ETFs moved from the AMEX to the NYSE, so that will effect any historical comparisons, The upper line is probably near 75 but could be as high as 80, the middle line could be up to 55, and the bottom line, at least here, looks like 30. I will look at the period 2004-2007 when I get the chance, to ee how a bull market compares to what we have seen for the last 3 years.

2010 is in the can, and it was full of surprises. Fortunately for me, I bought the 4th edition of O'Neil's book early in the year, and read it 3 times over the course of the year, so I did quite well this year, surprises or not.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

IMAX

Normally I ignore breakouts that happen because of rumors, but IMAX has a little feature that might interest the SEC. It sure looks like somebody took a nice position in it yesterday. Whover bought the rumor today got burned.

TIII

At least there are no rumors here that I know of, and this is a really nice chart. The trouble with TIII, though, is there really isn;t any news on it (although i believe the initial breakout in November was on earnings). There is a lot of stuff making moves like this, and that is usually an indication that the market rally is coming to an end.

This Week's Industry Performance

Name Performance (Week) Stocks
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 6.35% 25.44
Silver 5.18% 42.78
Agricultural Chemicals 4.83% 25.38
Nonmetallic Mineral Mining 4.46% 46.39
Education & Training Services 2.86% 18.6
REIT - Retail 2.77% 54.41
Electronic Equipment 2.75% 20.53
Gold 2.55% 31.34
REIT - Industrial 2.47% 51.46
Foreign Regional Banks 2.38% 58.07
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 2.36% 87.33
Basic Materials Wholesale 2.35% 9.97
Computers Wholesale 2.23% 28.23
REIT - Diversified 2.17% 35.53
Manufactured Housing 2.12% -10.83
REIT - Hotel/Motel 2.11% 20.23
Independent Oil & Gas 2.10% 29.64
REIT - Residential 2.10% 80.37
Gaming Activities 1.92% 2.99
Cement 1.91% 3.33

Here are this week's top 20 industries in increases in market cap. I was in the process of doing my other industry scan when my database crashed, and I probably will net get it fixed until much later. I wwill hav e new relative strength data this weekend.

Market Leader Performance

Ticker Performance (Week) Relative Volume Change
BKE 1.73% 0.25 -1.15%
CMP 0.43% 0.17 0.07%
DECK -3.45% 0.66 -1.96%
EMS 0.17% 0.07 0.33%
FFIV -2.76% 0.25 -1.74%
GIII -0.03% 0.53 -0.37%
IDCC -1.57% 0.36 -0.29%
LULU -3.00% 0.69 -1.62%
NFLX -2.99% 0.52 -2.00%
SINA -1.30% 0.23 -1.00%




AXTI 17.81% 1.35 -2.76%
DDIC -0.93% 0.24 0.77%
FCX 2.20% 0.29 1.12%
HANS -2.26% 0.14 -0.45%
JOYG 0.28% 0.17 -0.02%
LSCC 3.94% 0.54 -0.33%
PCLN -2.86% 0.36 -0.60%
SHOO -4.89% 0.72 -0.83%
ULTA -0.43% 0.23 -1.16%

Here is the weekly performance for this week's leadership scan, along with today's change and relative volume. The top 10 are above, the rest below. I will be doing some charts from this list tomorrow morning.

Breakouts

Here are today's top 4 relative volume breakouts. None are on earnings: IMAX is on takeover rumors.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1248.64 R2 1250.56 R4 1255 High 1251.87
R2 1249.87 R1 1255.27 R3 1256.44 Low 1257.1
R1 1253.87 P 1255.79 R2 1256.92

P 1255.1 S1 1260.5 R1 1257.4

S1 1259.1 S2 1261.02 S1 1258.36

S2 1260.33

S2 1258.84

S3 1264.33

S3 1259.32





S4 1260.76

Friday Morning Update

Here it is, the last day of 2010, a year that may go down in infamy as the year of the Great Illusion, a topic I may tackle this weekend. As far as the market is concerned, today will likely be a do-nothing day on just about no volume, just as it has been all week. One thing that struck me this week is how the market has been fo;;owing hte pivots points I see pretty closely. Since just about all the volume has been computer trading, I'm starting to wonder if I am thinking like a computer. Now, mind you, computers are really good at making lightning fast computations with incredible accuracy, but as far as actual decision making, they are about as sharp as a bowling ball, but hell, when they are running the market, it pays to be as dumb as they are. Anyway, for once XLE is not leading, however, XLB is, with XLF and XLE right behind. Lagging are XLK and XLY. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are lagging. Oil is down slightly, gold is up, and Treasury yields are down. The EUR/USD pair is ticking up, and the market reversed about half an hour ago along with i.

I have 81 new highs so far, with breakouts in TIII, IMAX, HSTM, SQM, and GIB. Once again, all is quiet on the earnings front. I had a goal of getting every stock on the earnings list updated and graphed before the end of the year, and I came close, getting 94 of them done (not counting the new additions), so I am ready for the earnngs blizzard this coming quarter.

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Thursday New Highs

Since practicaly nothing of consequence happened today, I will  dispense with the charts tonight and do the new highs update. Tomorow I will probably look at some market internals rather than the usual Friday weekly charts.

There were 292 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Percent
Oil & Gas Pipelines 32 11 34.38
Copper 6 2 33.33
Insurance Brokers 12 4 33.33
Manufactured Housing 3 1 33.33
Agricultural Chemicals 17 5 29.41
Air Services, Other 7 2 28.57
Auto Dealerships 11 3 27.27
Water Utilities 11 3 27.27
Industrial Metals & Minerals 63 17 26.98
Auto Parts Wholesale 4 1 25
Long-Term Care Facilities 12 3 25
REIT - Residential 20 5 25

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:


Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
GBDC 3.9 6.97%
CPWM 3.24 -5.42%
MIPS 1.58 6.47%



OXPS 1.53 0.26%



REDF 1.5 1.32%



Today's Leading Industry

Name Stocks Adv Pct
Auto Parts Stores 5 5 100
Toy & Hobby Stores 1 1 100
Home Furnishing Stores 6 5 83.33
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 12 10 83.33
Auto Dealerships 11 9 81.82
Oil & Gas Pipelines 32 26 81.25
Advertising Agencies 15 12 80
Electronics Stores 5 4 80
Foreign Utilities 5 4 80
Semiconductor- Memory Chips 10 8 80


Here are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks advancing on the day. unfortunately i don't have a lot of  time to do much with this, but a quick glance shows some long term strong groups here: auto parts stores, auto dealerships, and oil and gas pipelines, and the industrial metals groups, despite some big gainers, are noticeably absent here.

Posting Update

I am going to be on and off the net most of today, so tentatively, I will be doing the leading industry post right after the close, will probably not have any breakout stock charts , and will have the summary and new highs updates a couple of hours later than normal.

Market Leadership

Ticker 20-Day Simple Moving Average 50-Day Simple Moving Average 52-Week High Change Change from Open Gap Relative Volume
BKE -0.15% 8.07% -4.42% 0.87% 1.09% -0.21% 0.22
CMP 2.23% 8.07% -1.32% 0.06% 0.06% 0.00% 0.23
DECK -0.54% 17.80% -6.73% 0.07% 0.65% -0.57% 0.6
EMS 9.27% 18.03% -1.07% -0.42% -0.11% -0.31% 0.23
FFIV -2.51% 6.28% -7.39% -0.41% -0.25% -0.16% 0.29
GIII 6.42% 18.86% -0.95% 0.68% 0.76% -0.08% 0.13
IDCC 7.85% 18.57% -2.81% -0.43% -0.28% -0.14% 1.15
LULU 6.02% 26.68% -7.05% 0.83% 1.24% -0.41% 1.13
NFLX -3.13% 0.61% -13.96% -0.13% 0.04% -0.17% 0.51
SINA -0.47% 10.97% -8.22% -0.33% -0.95% 0.63% 0.51

Here is today's look at the market leaders. Only IDCC and LULU are seeing significant volume, and they are not moving much. NFLX is still riding the 50dma, as is PCLN, which is not in the top 10.

Here is a link to the charts.

Earnings Spreadsheet Update

I have this quarter's changes to the earnings list finalized. There were 7 changes, mostly due to acquisitions and de-listings. These are the removals: GYMB, HWK- both acquired; KGS, NYM- no longer listed, these might have been acquisitions I missed; CYAN, DJCO, FPO- earnings and revenue declines. Here are the additions: IEC, RELL, DDIC, ZAGG, ABVT, ISSI, and AXTI. I will update the tickers on the spreadsheet over the weekend, but the actual earnings data will probably not be updated for at least a couple of weeks.

Breakouts


Here are today's top 4 relative volume breakouts, all Chinese, and all but QXM rare earth mineral mining related.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1265.81 R2 1264.06 R4 1261.88 High 1263.1
R2 1264.21 R1 1261.69 R3 1260.83 Low 1259.28
R1 1261.99 P 1260.24 R2 1260.48

P 1260.39 S1 1257.87 R1 1260.13

S1 1258.17 S2 1256.42 S1 1259.43

S2 1256.57

S2 1259.08

S3 1254.35

S3 1258.73





S4 1257.68

Thursday Morning Update

Out Thursday ritual of waiting with bated breath for initial and continuing claims numbers, which used to actuall affect the market, continues today, and initial claims actually dropped below 400k for the first time since July 2008. The market seems unimpressed, but then again, it's been unimpressed with anything at all for the past couple of weeks. unimpressed with anything but technical levels I thought about ignoring yesterday's foray above 1260, but then looked at what has transpired so far this morning and realize we are now trading in a very narrow range here, between 1257 and 1263.  Leading again today are XLE and XLB, lagging are XLF and XLY. The Nasdaq is about even,but the Russell 2000 has a big lead. Oil and gold are down, Treasury yields up and rising. The EUR/USD pair rose overnight, then gave it all back at the open.

I have 198 new highs so far, with breakouts in CHGS, CHNR, QXM, APC, ANR, and BJ. Yesterday I mentioned the "reare earth" mania that is developing due to China cornering the market in rare earth minerals, that is where most of these breakouts are. If you get a chance, go to the Finviz screener and check the charts for 2 industries, non-metallic mining and industrial metals and minerals.  There is nothing to report on the earnings front.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Wednesday New Highs

There were 327 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs;

Name Stocks NH Percent
Major Integrated Oil & Gas 14 5 35.71
Agricultural Chemicals 17 6 35.29
Appliances 9 3 33.33
Long Distance Carriers 3 1 33.33
Air Services, Other 7 2 28.57
Oil & Gas Pipelines 32 9 28.13
Conglomerates 12 3 25
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 28 7 25
Auto Manufacturers - Major 9 2 22.22
Industrial Metals & Minerals 63 14 22.22
Silver 9 2 22.22
Waste Management 18 4 22.22


These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
REDF 3.12 10.19%
CPWM 5.01 -15.57%
DDS 1.65 0.97%
TZOO 2.29 -0.51%




AGNC 2.22 -2.77%




BSQR 1.71 -0.12%

No Surprises

Every once in a while you have one of those days where just about nothing of any consequence happens, and today was one of those days. I'm doing one chart today because they all look just about the same. I had a feeling, about mid-day, when we were at about 1262, that we would dip below 1260 just before the close, and that's what we did. Even the most hardy day traders are probably having trouble with this market, as there isn't much movement, and only the sub-penny HFTs can get any kind of advantage here. The market is pretty overbought, and will probably pull back next week, although I can't fathom a guess as to how long or how far. We are now in a long string of blue candles on the SPX, which a few months ago would have said was signalling a trend change coming, but during the September-October runup, they failed twice.



On slow days I rely on one of my favorite standbys, the Stockcharts.com sector ETF perfchart. The market followed through on September 1st, after Bernanke dropped the "QE2" bomb, and since then there are few surprises, XLE and XLB, probably the two sectors most sensitive to inflation, have outperformed by a mile. XLU, XLP, and XLV, the defensive sectors, have lagged. XLF has put in a rather pathetic performance, but that should be no surprise to anyone who has a news source other than CNBC. The only mild surprise is XLY, but if XLE and XLB keep leading (meaning commodities are going up), then XLY will get their margins squeezed, and we could see a collapse of epic proportions.

The first few weeks of the new year could be quite interesting. Bernanke has tried everything to revive the sagging economy, and while he has stopped a total collapse (for now), he has not fostered a real recovery. Perhaps he should try the one thing he hasn't yet; getting out of the way and letting the markets fix themselves. I know that's a tough proposition for a central planner, but actual economic growth will lead to employment and recovery faster than papering over the financial system's insolvency.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

MOS

I found the bug in my new industry system, ran it again, and found 17 of the 17 stocks in the agricultural chemicals group advancing today, along wth several breakouts. MOS looks like about the best one, although this is fairly flawed.  It did not hold the 50dma on it's most recent pullback, but did hold a pivot point, so that's not too bad. The price relative line is weak, again, not a disaster. Volume, however, was low for a breakout.  This group did quite well from July to the end of Ocober, hasn't done much since, and only time will tell if this is the beginning of renewed strength or a one day wonder.

TWER


Of the breakout charts I looked at today, TWER was the only one to have a price relative line hit a new high. This has also had a dramatic increase in average daily volume, and the frequent spikes sure look like somebody is accumulating this.  I had a little bit of a tough time picking out the pivots here, the 3 red and green lines are my best guess, which doesn't look quit right, but then the blue line caught my eye (the mid point between the top and middle pivots), which leads me to belive the poriginal pivots are correct.

FLXS

FLXS is actually not a bad looking chart, but the price relative line is slightly weak, and the volume "surge: is only about 80k shares.  I do like the way it stayed in the upper half of the range it was in, and although it's hard to draw conclusions from CMF on a thinly traded stock, it does not look bad here.

No Industry Post

The numbers didn't look right yesterday, and they look even worse today, so I believe there is a bug in my new industry system, so I won't have any tables and graphs today. I will try to get that worked out tonight and get correct numbers tomorrow.

Market Leadership

Ticker 20-Day Simple Moving Average 50-Day Simple Moving Average Relative Strength Index (14) Change Change from Open Gap Relative Volume
BKE -1.22% 7.42% 55.22 0.27% 0.27% 0.00% 0.18
CMP 2.46% 8.18% 69.27 0.36% 0.20% 0.16% 0.35
DECK 0.35% 19.45% 59.46 -0.88% -0.08% -0.79% 0.82
EMS 11.47% 19.30% 80.69 0.54% 0.56% -0.02% 0.37
FFIV -2.03% 7.42% 51.26 0.24% -0.08% 0.31% 0.33
GIII 8.41% 20.12% 69.37 1.71% 1.02% 0.68% 0.15
IDCC 9.71% 20.03% 71.41 -1.10% -1.14% 0.05% 0.82
LULU 7.71% 28.30% 67.52 1.07% 0.17% 0.90% 1.31
NFLX -2.70% 2.07% 48.41 -0.87% -1.12% 0.25% 0.46
SINA 0.58% 12.21% 56.33 0.21% -0.04% 0.26% 0.77

Here is the market leadership, again not a whole lot happening here. LULU is getting pretty good volume, but only a 1% move. Nothing is really getting whacked either.

here is a link to the charts.

Outsource This!

Among the news I saw yesterday, there was a little blurb about CAT, which hired 15,000 people last year. Unfortunately, well over half those new jobs are in countries other than the USA (there was another big company mentioned that also hired a huge number of people overseas, but I don't remember which one). That got me thinking: with so many American jobs in danger of being outsourced, are there any that just can't be? Why yes, here are a few:


Drug dealer.  Let's see those cartels try to get some call center in India to do this.



Prostitute, for reasons I won't go into.


Here is a resourceful fellow combining two occupations into one: drunk and panhandler. Next time you here someone whining about his job being outsourced, give him these pictures for a little inspiration.

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