The SPX hit a new high today, volume increased, and CMF has hit a new high. So what's the bad news? Leading stocks underperformed today, and in fact all week, as the bid went toward speculative crap stocks, which in my experience has been a sign of a top coming. The market has been throwing up red flags for several weeks, but refuses even so much as a minor pullback. We did have a nasty minor selloff intraday today, but the typical positioning for the expected Monday ramp brought us back positive.
On the daily chart I have 1350 as the nexte target. On the weekly chart this week, I put pivot points at the most recent areas of weekly resistance, and projected a target from there, coming up with 1363/That's about as close as they have come, and while I don't hold too much validity in my method, and am certainly no A. J. Cohen, I would not be surprised if we ultimately topped out somewhere between this two points.
The Nasdaq is pretty straightforward, and looks like it will get up to about 2950. Notice how stochastics, although in overbought territory, are now pointed nearly straight up. Holy cow.
The Dow industrials have not hit an area of even minor resistance since November of last year, making it nearly impossible to project a target here. Using an older pivot point I come up with 12200, which, as you can see, we are already past. Back to the drawing board.
After lagging badly for a few weeks, the transports are trying to play catch up. I have a target here about 5600, but it needs to get through that middle pivot first, and it looks like it is really having a problem with it.
In July of 2007, the Russell 2000 hit a high of 856 before leading the market into what became the bear market of 2008. My projection here? Just about 856. This should get interesting.
The SPX and Dow are well below the 2007 highs, but the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are nearly there (The Nasdaq 100 has actually passed it's 2007 high). I think we are going to find out soon which cracks first.
I am not a financial professional, just a guy that trades my own account.
I am also not a musical professional, just a guy that makes music on the computer. Thus, two blogs, one trading and on musical.
And, no, the picture is not me, it is the late, great John Belushi, one of the inspirations for these blogs.
This blog is focused on technical analysis of stocks and markets, putting heavy emphasis on chart analysis. My trading style is derived primarily from my mentor, William "Yoda" O'Neil, and the focus here is on leading and breakout stocks, but all forms of trading are covered to some extent. Economic and political news that effects the market are also topics here, and the blog may occasionally become a platform for my political and philosophical ranting. I keep several spreadsheets on Google docs which track various aspects of the market and readers are welcome to vies and comment on them.
Google Docs Spreadsheets
There are several spreadsheet that I maintain on Google docs to track various watchlists and trends in the market.
1. The earnings list - a group of small and micro cap, low float stocks that have exhibited recent rapid earnings growth. They are modeled along the lines of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM system, but limited to small cap, highly volatile stocks.
2. The relative strength list - a group of stocks which are near 52 week highs and have shown an increase in average daily volume. The list is limited to the top 200 stocks according to my methodology, which will be detailed on one of the pages of the spreadsheet.
It can be accessed here, and is also updates weekly.
3. Relative strength by industry - Uses industry data from Finviz.com to track the percentage of stocks within each industry that are in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, looking for trends.