Today we did not really come close to testing the new resistance at 1308, but did not come close to esting any support a all. Normally a very slight pullback, on light volume, after a move up is very bullish, and that is what we got today. Last Friday we got a sell signal on the Elder impulse chart, but no follow through on it, and in fact are on a new buy signal. Ever since September the Elder impulse signals have not been terribly reliable: whether that is an anomaly or if the Elder impulse system is flawed, i don't know, but looking at recent past charts, it does look pretty reliable. The down trend in CMF continues, but it is still very high, and the market often moves higher for weeks after CMF peaks.
CMF is rising on the Nasdaq, despite the fact that it has not hit a new high yet. It appears we are going to be seeing some rotation here after about a month of relative weakness. Friday's drop was a little more severe here: the Elder impulse signal did not change for a couple of days.
When last I looked at the sectors, XLB was the leader by RSI, but not now. XLE has taken it's place, and since oil was the primary catalyst for the market frop on Friday, this was not hit, certainly a big factor in it's current lead.
XLB now ranks number 4 in RSI, behind XLE, XLI, and XLK, but it's lagging status was due to a big hi in the mini-correction we had last month. It has bounced back pretty strongly, and may resume leading the market here.
XLP is the weakest by RSI, and this looks like it is on the verge of breaking down. Market cheerleaders will tell you this is good, that traders are moving into higher risk areas, but I'm not so sure. This is having trouble getting back through the 50dma, and if it does break down, eventually the rest of the market will follow.
I am not a financial professional, just a guy that trades my own account.
I am also not a musical professional, just a guy that makes music on the computer. Thus, two blogs, one trading and on musical.
And, no, the picture is not me, it is the late, great John Belushi, one of the inspirations for these blogs.
This blog is focused on technical analysis of stocks and markets, putting heavy emphasis on chart analysis. My trading style is derived primarily from my mentor, William "Yoda" O'Neil, and the focus here is on leading and breakout stocks, but all forms of trading are covered to some extent. Economic and political news that effects the market are also topics here, and the blog may occasionally become a platform for my political and philosophical ranting. I keep several spreadsheets on Google docs which track various aspects of the market and readers are welcome to vies and comment on them.
Google Docs Spreadsheets
There are several spreadsheet that I maintain on Google docs to track various watchlists and trends in the market.
1. The earnings list - a group of small and micro cap, low float stocks that have exhibited recent rapid earnings growth. They are modeled along the lines of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM system, but limited to small cap, highly volatile stocks.
2. The relative strength list - a group of stocks which are near 52 week highs and have shown an increase in average daily volume. The list is limited to the top 200 stocks according to my methodology, which will be detailed on one of the pages of the spreadsheet.
It can be accessed here, and is also updates weekly.
3. Relative strength by industry - Uses industry data from Finviz.com to track the percentage of stocks within each industry that are in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, looking for trends.