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Sunday, July 31, 2011

Earnings Growth Charts

There were 19 stocks on the earnings list reporting last week, and I haven't been able to graph them all yet, but here are the six most of interest that I have so far. In the top panel the black line is quarterly revenue growth rate, red is quarterly EPS growth rate. In the middle, red is quarterly EPS, black price, green quarterly revenue, and blue is price relative to SPX. At the bottom the black bars are volume. None reported the end of a fiscal year, so I did not include annual EPS.

BWLD is one I have been following pretty closely for about a year now, When I put it on the list, it had growing earnings but shrinking revenue, which was about the time it built the last big base. Revenue growth reversed and it broke out of the base and became a market leader. Now revenue growth is still high, but EPS growth has slowed. Price seems to be following revenue closer than it is earnings, but this looks like it is way extended here and may be just about due for another base. 

CPLA is one of the for profit education stocks that got crushed due to a Dept. of Education probe into them. That investigation has ended favorably for the schools, but this one has failed to bounce back. It did report accelerating growth this quarter, but the recent trend is slowing EPS and revenue, but there must be something else going on here, because price just refuses to come back.

DECK actually reported a loss this quarter, but revenues are about where they were expected to be, so this was probably an anomaly. This is overdue for another base, and looks like it might be ready to start one here.

The last time I looked at RGR, it was slowing drastically in both EPS and revenue, and I thought it might not be long for the earnings list, but since then has sharply increased both, and price has followed. The only problem now is it';s not getting the volume to be a leader, but that can change quickly.

RNOW is also a potential leader, but has been slowing in EPS growth lately. Revenue growth is still high, but it looks like the market is being a little cautious here as this is pulling back a bit. It may be a long base getting ready to form, or just a short term pullback before another leg up, it is just too early to tell.

I have very little revenue data for SCL, so the revenue lines here are not valid. EPS growth has been pretty flat for a couple of years now, and this has not been outperforming the market for the last year. It did, howver, hit a new high last week, so the market seems to like this one.

I have not yet finished the earnings spreadsheet update, but it should be completed some time this morning.

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