Here We Go Again

Now, lets see here, the market drops drmatically on screaming high volume, bounces on low volume (an can't even retrace 50% of the first move), then begins another down move, on screaming high volume again. tha means the bottom is in, right? That's the world according to CNBC, but here in the real worl, it looks like we are still quite a distance, in time if not also in price, from a bottom. Another round of really bad economic reports this morning sent the market dropping like a rock, and it never recovered from there. We did finally get a reversal in MACD histogram today, too late to really be actionable (I actually was going to load up on puts yesterday in my Investopedia simulator, but never got around to it, thus losing a chance to make a boatload today). The probability now is a retest of 1100, and if it fails, I shudder to think of what will hapen after that.

Both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 have really taken a pounding, and the Nasdaq 100 after reaching a new high. Tech stocks in general really got hammered today (although there wasn;t much of anything else that didn't get it) and the leadership here is breaking down. It looks like the margin calls are going out.

Notice how the Dow bounced right up to the March low, nearly to the penny. It may be coincidence, or it may be that the computers are playing using the Dow chart.

Here is the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq above the 50dma. This dropped below 30 at the beginning of this month and hasn;t come close to getting back above it. That means, in all probability, that we are in a bear market and will be in one for a while. If we get a retest of the lows, I will be watching this, although it has already dropped enough that it is not significantly higher than the prior low. If the market is gaining strength (which I doubt) it is not yet showing up here.

On the NYSE it looks quite a bit better, and we just might get a higher, By a decent amount, low here.  that is, if the retest is succesful. If not, then what happens here won' really matter. When the market begins to gain strength we will probably see it here first, and right now it is too early to tell.

I will have the new highs update shortly.