Bernenake gave another speech today (just about the time the market tanked), and I discovered the chart he needs to look at. Well, not exactly a chart, but a picture. A stick, as in "clue stick". It seems Bernanke is puzzled by the lack of consumer spending. I guess an unemployment rate of 9%, high gasoline and food prices, and falling asset values have nothing to do with it? It's truly amazing how stupid a well educated man can be.
The marekt was a little worse than it appears on the daily chart. We actually looked like we might continue yesterday;s rally, but Bernanke put an end to that. he has been raiding expectations in the market for a few months now, and has not come through, and the market, ater getting juiced on the expectations, falls apart when they don;t come through. While the up-down, up-down may suck for a trader like me, the computers must be loving this stuff.
The Nasdaq 100 is the strongest of the major indexes, and held up better than the SPX today, but also got higher relative volume. I can;t help but think that every move up is being met buy a blizzerd of selling by the big money boys. However, the selling stops when we get int the lower portion of the range. Then it starts all over again.
The Russell 2000 is the weakest of the major indexes,and took a pretty bad beating today. It has two support levels below it, on at 680 and one just below that. I don's suspect that either one is very strong.
One the less apocalyptic side, the percentage of stocks above the 50dma is getting better, if very slowly. We have spent over a month now below the critical 30 level. Bull market corrections don't do that. That leads one to conclude that we are most probably in a bear market, and in that case, we are probably a few months away, at least, from a real bottom. Of course, in the interventionist, HFT infested market, strange things can happen, and probably will.
The same indicator on the NYSE, showing essentially the same thing. The Presidentn is giving a speech tonight, outlining his latest stimulus plan. Let's see, Bush's stimulus didn't work, Obama;s first stimulus didn't work, so what should we do now? Why, what didn't work in the past, of course. But, then again, "working" is a subjective term. If you look at who walked away from the last financial crisis incredibly rich, you will understand why it happened, and why it will happen again.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
0 comments:
Post a Comment