What a better way to end the week, month, and quarter than a major whimper. The market just never got any footing today, but then again, it did not break support. Looking at the standard pivot points (which will change on Monday), it is remarkable how well price was contained in between the pivot and S1. That gives you an indication of what the computers are using for buy and sell signals. the descending 50dma is also clearly a resistance level, when we can manage to get that high. 1100 is life or death support here, and it is probably pretty likely we will see a test next week.
I didn't see any poit in trying to get some projections from the weekly chart, since we have been stuck in this range for months now. The chart looks very much like it did suing the 2010 correction, when it looked like we were about to break down before Bernanke pulled the QE2 rabbit out of his hat. It looks like the market might be waiting for him to do something like that again. With the Fed out of ammunition, it might be a long wait.
The Nasdaq was the stronger of the indexes, so it had farther to fall, and that is just what it did, and it still has plenty of room to go befoore hitting support. As long as this is lagging I can't even get a whiff of bullishness.
The Dow industrials had a positive week, and as i have been hammering for months, the Dow leading is bearish.
The Dow transports, on the other hand, are not only perilously close to support, they are als close to the 2010 support. there isn;t much below that.
The Russell 2000 is dnagerously close as well, and has nearly given back every penny of it's QE2 gains. And to think Bernanke was dumb enough to point t the Russell 2000 as a sign of the success of QE2. Hey, what goes around comes around.
The market is in about the same position it was in the summer of 2010, when it looked like it was about to collapse. It went the other way, and may have set up an even bigger cataclysm to come.
I will have the new highs update shortly.
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