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Saturday, September 3, 2011

Leader Charts

Had it not been for yesterday, this would have been a pretty good week for the leadership list. as it was, the list ended up with about the same number of gainers as decliners, and was overall slightly better than even. PSMT was the biggest gainer, and nearly took the role of the next stock to go parabolic. This just has one of those nearly perfect charts even without the price relative line, but with that added it is even more impressive. It got hit pretty good the last couple of days, but is still above prior resistance. if the rest of the market cooperates, this may be about the best entry point you can get.
AG was the second biggest gainer. This formed a double bottom base starting in April, with a breakout point at the middle horizontal line. It did stage a nice breakout in July, and had a good gain after wards, but then dropped sharply before riding the 50dma back up. Notice how high the price relative line stayed during that pullback, and how it pooped out to a new high even though price is well off the old high. This chart might be a lot stronger than it looks at first.  

CROX was the biggest decliner, and has a pattern I am seeing a lot of now: two subsequent attempts to retest the old high, both hitting lower highs, a pattern that is very bearish. This is probably going to be building a base for a while (assuming it does not collapse). The price relative line is now heading down, so this one may be done as a leader for a while.

RGR was the second biggest decliner, and is in the midst of a big drop after a near parabolic move. the last time i charted this I set a target at about 38 with fibonacci grid, and it came very close to hitting it. O'neil says a good time to sell is when the stock gets to a price that is double the 200dma.  This also did not quite get there, either, but I like to err on the side of caution and tighten stops when it gets within about 10% of it's target. It paid off here, as I got stopped out of this just before it collapsed. As with PSMT, igf the rest of the market cooperates, this may be another big buying opportunity.

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