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Sunday, October 16, 2011

Earnings Growth Charts

I had only two stocks from the earnings list reporting this week. On the graphs, in the top panel the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, the black line is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the black line is price, red is quarterly EPS, green quarterly revenue, and blue price relative to SPX. In the case of a stock reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

KMGB did report the end of a fiscal year. This chart template needed to be updated, and in the process I screwed it up, so the time axes are not lined up properly. I will have that fixed before next week. This reported a fifth consecutive quarter of negative growth, which would normally be enough to get it kicked off the list, and in fact annual EPS is now declining. Revenue is still growing, at least according to the data I have, and while this is in a pretty sharp pullback, price has not collapsed as you would expect with this kind of drop in earnings. I will have to look into this to see if there is something else going on, but as it stands now this will have a very difficult time making the next quarterly cut.

VMI reported a quarter of decelerating growth, but EPS is still in a decent short term up trend. This is also in a pretty good pullback, but price relative has held up fairly well. Long term, this has yet to equal the peak in EPS it reached in 2009, but revenue is quite a bit higher now than it was then. Thi one might be hitting a wall where further growth is going to get more difficult, and the next couple of quarters might be pretty critical.

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