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Saturday, October 1, 2011

Leader Charts

Looking at the weekly chart, the market didn't look all that bad last week, but one reason I have various watch lists is that it gives a look under the hood, so to speak, to give you some insight into the real health of the market. Lat week the leadership list took a royal butt kicking, with only one stock positive on the week. HITK was the only gainer, and it was a pretty small gain. This is in the midst of a cup and handle pattern, and if it gets a little cooperation from the rest of the market, might break out soon with a target of roughly 38. The handle is behaving quite well, and the price relative line has been rising, so this is very likely to make a breakout attempt soon. 

HANS was the second biggest "gainer", with a decline of 0.5%. On the positive sign, this has yet to see any hints of heavy selling. On the negative side, the price relative line is dropping with price, which may mean we are in for a long base here. It is one of a handfull of stock still above a rising 50dma, so even though it may be losing a little strength here, it is still one of the last bastions of strength in the market.

RGR was the biggest decliner, and has finally broken down after a pretty impressive run. I don't know what triggered the break of the 50dma, but once it went an avalanche of selling started. this has a pretty strong pivot point at 24, if it successfully tests it I might consider an entry point there, but otherwise, this looks like it's done for a while.

CROX was the second biggest decliner. This also got hammered this week, on higher than average volume. this is the typical fate of a high flying growth stock during bear markets, and although it looks like pretty good support just above 23, I would not bet on that holding here. The 200dma is just below that, and that my be where it makes it's stand, but for now this one is done as well.

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