We had quite an impressive move today, but not quite impressive enough to get to the previous high, let alone the high before that. if this is establishing a pattern of lower highs, that will result in a pennant formation, which would normally be bullish. the fact that we are also going to higher lows seems to re-inforce that. We will have to sit and wait for the pattern to resolve itself. I have put the standard pivot points on this chart: notice that we have stayed above the middle pivot point and have not come close to testing R1. I don;t know what the probability is that we will test it before the month is over, but I suspect we will.
Not a very reliable indicator.
The Nasdaq is also having trouble at the 40 week line, and is down for the week, at least marginally. It does, however, have momentum to the upside still, and better CMF than the SPX. If the big money is going on here, they have done a pretty good job of hiding it, and the momentum crowd has not started buying yet. Again, not much to do here but wait.
The market is absurdly news sensitive right now, and is at a point where it can basically go either way. I am still holding postions i got into when we had the follow through day a while back, but I;m not looking to add anything until we get some resolution. that may take a while.
I will have the new high update shortly.