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Friday, December 9, 2011

Friday Weekly Charts

I did not see what the news was this morning, and didn't bother to find out later as I had better things to do, but whatever it was sent the market to regain almost all of what it gave up yesterday. Once again, the simple 200dma is the stopping point. Monday we will see if another test of 1267 is in the cards, or if we stop dead here and move down again. Either way, it is going to be tough to get a rally going here, and it may be just before Christmas, when volume shrivels to nothing, before we get one. TPTB are just too close to having a positive year in the market for them to let it go now, but I may be overestimating their power. There is pretty clearly some down ward pressure here, and any moves up are being met with distribution.

On the weekly chart, the 40 week average is sitting right above, daring the market to try to cross it. It is now descending, something it hasn't done for this long since 2008. The 10 week line is rising, but has not shown much of a propensity for support. Short erm this has some upward momentum, but the down trend this has been in since May is intact.

About the only difference on the Nasdaq is the volume pattern looks slightly better. I expected this to be a lot weaker than the SPX, but it isn't.

I expected the Dow to be stronger, and it is, by quite a bit. This is probably being targeted by TPTB to finish positive on the year, and I'm sure it will, come hell or high water.

The transports are trading in a much wider range, but overall look to be abut in the same technical shape as the SPX and Nasdaq. Once again, the 40 week line stopped this advance, with no resolution coming until next week.

The Russell 2000, despite being still well under the 40 week line, isn;t that much weaker on a relative basis, but it is trading in a very wide range. This had been very weak, but is slowly gaining relative strength.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

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