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Friday, December 23, 2011

Friday Weekly Charts

 Yet another bullish day, on yet again (and expected) shriveling volume. Intraday resistance at 1258 did put up a small fight but ultimately fell, giving us a so far positive year on the SPX. The good news is that everything looks bulklish into year end. the bad news is year end is a week away.

 Here we are again at the 40 week line on the weekly chart. The last two time we got a bit above it, only to collapse. Every indication is we will do it again (except for the collapse part, although I will be assuming to will until proven otherwise).

 The Nasdaq is in similar shape, but a bit weaker. It is having the same trouble with the 40 week line, and I won't trust any move above it until after the new year starts.

The Dow industrials look like they are in pretty good shape, and may actually soon be challenging the 2011 high. Again, i wouldn't trust a breakout before the end of the year, and I'm especially skeptical of the Dow because it is price weighted, so only a couple of strong stocks can move this.

The transports, on then other hand, are considerably weaker and had a rather tepid week compared to the other indexes. This is now above the 40 week line, but again, I'm not trusting it, as it still has resistance right about where it is now.

The Russell 2000 also needs to kick it into gear. If this breaks out, even before the end of the year, that will get my attention. I consider the Russell to be the best barometer of overall market health, and right now it is not bearish but also not terribly bullish. It will probably be another couple of weeks before we get some clarity.

It came late, but the traditional Santa Claus rally arrived, and got the SPX positive for the year. We may push up some more next week, although I doubt by much, but that may present a golden selling opportunity.

I will have the new highs update a little late tonight.

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