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Saturday, December 24, 2011

Leader Charts

Overall it was a pretty mediocre week on the leadership list, with the group as a whole slightly under performing the market, but that is something I would expect in a "Santa Claus" rally. BWLD was the week's biggest gainer, and one I should have caught. Last Friday (the blue arrow represents last Friday's candle) it had a big gap up on high relative volume, but since there was no news on it and it was well off the high I paid little attention to it  If I had bothered to look I would have seen the key reversal candle the day before, and realized this had a pretty good chance of making a good short term move.  This is the "wide and loose" pattern that O'Neil would avoid like the plague, and the price relative line is somewhat less than impressive, but if you think very short term (a few days to a couple of weeks) you can scalp a few moves like this. That is, if you are paying attention.
GPOR was the second biggest gainer, and looks like a classic bounce in a developing down trend. This outperforms on the way up but under performs on the way down, overall doing about the same as the market. At some point it will stop bouncing around and form a real consolidation, but until it does I would not have much interest in it.
I had AGNC as the biggest decliner last week, but that was due to a dividend payout. Stochcharts adjusted the price to account for the dividend but Finviz did not, so stockcharts shows it witha gain this week and Finviz with a loss. Since that chart is very difficult to decipher, I decided to award QCOR with the biggest decline this week. I did note on Wednesday that it was breaking down on high volume: now that call looks premature. It is still well above support, price relative still looks good, but CMF does not look terribly good. It looks like it is in a holding pattern waiting for it's next earnings report, and I would not consider getting back into it until it does report.

MELI was the second biggest decliner. The price relative on this is dropping like a rock, but prioce is still above the 50dma and there is a pretty good chance of getting a bounce there. This one is volatile right now and risk is higher here than most of the other leaders. so I am unlikely to try to catch this unless the market goes into full bullish mode.

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