So far, it appears that the zone above 1250, which has been resistance several times before, is putting up som again, but the momentum is still to the upside. A couple of weeks ago, I thought that the breakdown from the triangle pattern would reverse, and although it did, a true reversal would take it back into the traingle. Unfortunately that traingle is no longer valid, as we are now well beyond the right most point. What that means I have no idea, but I am no longer aiming at a 1350 target. At this point I still think we will head up, for seasonal reasons, but that is not a given. All but one of my positions are now in the green, and I am taking profits on any strength.
One reason for my lack of confidence is the action, or lack of it, in leading stocks, many of which are located on the Nasdaq 100. Most look pretty toppy, and another one (LULU) bit the dust today. This has come a long way in a few days, but a failure to get above the resistance level I have here, which is still quite a ways off, will be quite bearish.
One ray of sunshine,and a reason I didn't bail out totally today, is the renewed strength of the Russell 2000, which is getting near a possible breakout. If it does, Santa Claus will bring us a rally for Christmas.
The percentage of stocks on the NYSE above the 50dma is firmly in bull territory, and today's little pullback spared us from overbought territory for a day or two, meaning this can rally some more. I missed posting the charts last Thursday, and you can see we dipped into bear territory and quickly reversed, which is typical of bullish conditions in the market. i don;t know why it works that way, but it does, and getting back above the 35 level was a good buy signal.
The Nasdaq is less firmly in bullish ground, and could dip back below 50 on a pullback. The Nasdaq is seriously under performing of late, and that is not a teribly bullish sign. Historically, when the NYSE composite outperforms the Nasdaq composite, a correction is not far behind.
I am not a financial professional, just a guy that trades my own account.
I am also not a musical professional, just a guy that makes music on the computer. Thus, two blogs, one trading and on musical.
And, no, the picture is not me, it is the late, great John Belushi, one of the inspirations for these blogs.
This blog is focused on technical analysis of stocks and markets, putting heavy emphasis on chart analysis. My trading style is derived primarily from my mentor, William "Yoda" O'Neil, and the focus here is on leading and breakout stocks, but all forms of trading are covered to some extent. Economic and political news that effects the market are also topics here, and the blog may occasionally become a platform for my political and philosophical ranting. I keep several spreadsheets on Google docs which track various aspects of the market and readers are welcome to vies and comment on them.
Google Docs Spreadsheets
There are several spreadsheet that I maintain on Google docs to track various watchlists and trends in the market.
1. The earnings list - a group of small and micro cap, low float stocks that have exhibited recent rapid earnings growth. They are modeled along the lines of William O'Neil's CAN SLIM system, but limited to small cap, highly volatile stocks.
2. The relative strength list - a group of stocks which are near 52 week highs and have shown an increase in average daily volume. The list is limited to the top 200 stocks according to my methodology, which will be detailed on one of the pages of the spreadsheet.
It can be accessed here, and is also updates weekly.
3. Relative strength by industry - Uses industry data from Finviz.com to track the percentage of stocks within each industry that are in the top 25% of the 52 week price range, looking for trends.