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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Monday, January 31, 2011

Monday New Highs

There were 188 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Percent
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 28 10 35.71
Long Distance Carriers 3 1 33.33
Healthcare Information Services 10 3 30
Major Integrated Oil & Gas 14 4 28.57
Independent Oil & Gas 93 26 27.96
Computers Wholesale 8 2 25
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 48 12 25
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 84 19 22.62
Medical Practitioners 5 1 20
Oil & Gas Pipelines 32 6 18.75

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:


Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
MEE 9.43 9.84%
CCME 4.9 -14.48%
CLDA 4.32 8.70%
CIEN 2.64 -6.26%
GEOI 3.26 0.51%
NOVA 2.29 -0.61%
DTLK 2.82 1.59%
SNDK 2.07 -3.06%
AHD 2.71 2.15%
RCL 1.93 -1.43%
RKT 2.05 0.92%



ICO 1.99 4.40%



WNR 1.97 5.73%



FITB 1.64 1.57%



WERN 1.52 1.65%





































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Here is what I have reporting after the close, along with after hours trading: BIDU, up 7.7%, NVLS up 3.7%,  CAVM up 2.7%, ALGT down 2.2%. Before the open I have CRVL scheduled.




Low Volume Bounce

Friday we broke the 20dma (which may or may not have any significance), today we bounced back above it, but on lower volume, a classic bearish situation.  However, we do have a pivot point just below, and the 50dema just below that, so there is plenty of support. CMF is still pretty high, so there isn't mass selling, RSI bounced off 50, so while the market has weakened significantly, we cannot say the trend has changed yet.


The Nasdaq does look significantly weaker, and price relative has reversed, but it hasn't collapsed yet. CMF looks even higher here than on the SPX. This bounced right off the middle pivot point of it's current range, but on lower volume. ATR is rising here more than the SPX, so volatility is rising, which is not a bullish scenario.


The Dow industrials have become the leading index, a situation that reversed about mid-January, which was a little before the Middle East ruckus began. Ironically, the outperformance of the Dow, especially if it continues for extended periods (in Bernanke speak) is normally bearish, which makes logical sense as the Dow components are the most liquid, slowest moving stocks in the market, and an ideal safe haven for funds that need to be fully invested at all times.


Not so with the Dow transports, which are really badly underperforming right now, courtesy of a ramp in oil price. These peaked out in CMF in early November but kept rising for nearly two months after, and even rose for over about a month after peaking in price relative. Unfortunately, it is the gravity indicator that is taking control now.


The Russell 2000, via the IWM, doesn't quite look as bad as the transports, but it is bad. ATR is rising, CMF dropping, high volume selling followed by a low volume bounce, and a reversal in trend in price relative. On the positive side: still above the 50dema, and the price relative line is not (yet) making a lower low. We can now sit and wait to see if we get a follow through of today's bounce, or another leg down. At this point, it is to early to place any bets.

I will have the new highs update shortly.






GPOR

Back in 2008, just before th market meltdown, rising oil prices sent the shares of just about every small cap energy stock through the roof, whether they were making money or not. GPOR is one of the ones that is making money, and may be one the the first beneficiaries of a new round of oil price rises. The only problem is, if oil comes down, so will this, no matter how good the company is.

URG

URG has the word "energy" in the company name, but it is in the industrial metals and mining industry, so I suspect it is uranium, which would make it part of the "rare earth" minerals craze going on right now. I have no complaints about the chart, but a quick look at the data from finviz reveals no earnings, no revenue, and apparently, no production. But these guys are going to produce lots of uranium in the future. Yep, and the chack is in the mail.

TNB

It took a while, but I did find a stock breaking out on earnings today. TNB looks pretty good, but a close examination of the chart reveals ome serious flaws. During the recent consolidation, when price went sideways, price relative went down. That is exactly the opposite of what you want see. CMF took a big dive as well, although this doesn't trade that heavily, so that could be a little exaggerated. Can good earnings trump bad technicals? We will get to see with this one.

Today's Leading Industry


Name Stocks Adv Pct Change 4 week avg 10 week avg 40 week avg
Aluminum 5 5 100 1.66% 65 56 23
Copper 5 5 100 1.22% 30 44.33 27.85
Office Supplies 4 4 100 1.48% 10 16 14.83
Toy & Hobby Stores 1 1 100 4.17% 0 0 7.5
Wholesale, Other 5 5 100 0.43% 55 61 31.66
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 12 11 91.67 1.42% 37.5 26.06 47.65
Water Utilities 11 10 90.91 0.54% 38.64 51.82 35.19
Independent Oil & Gas 93 84 90.32 2.86% 56.61 54.82 35.36
Healthcare Information Services 10 9 90 1.33% 55 57 35.18
Beverages - Soft Drinks 16 14 87.5 0.74% 42.19 43.75 35.18
Farm & Construction Machinery 16 14 87.5 1.45% 68.75 70.63 49.58
Synthetics 16 14 87.5 1.72% 64.06 63.04 43.08
Cigarettes 7 6 85.71 0.21% 28.57 45.71 60.36
Major Integrated Oil & Gas 14 12 85.71 2.04% 60.71 55.44 30.89
Recreational Vehicles 7 6 85.71 1.34% 64.29 58.57 32.74
REIT - Residential 21 18 85.71 1.38% 76.97 79.29 74.33
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 48 41 85.42 2.34% 58.75 57.79 31.74
Metal Fabrication 13 11 84.62 1.25% 78.85 66.92 33.64
REIT - Office 13 11 84.62 1.12% 32.53 29.68 26.6
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers 6 5 83.33 -0.29% 29.17 41.67 33.33
Hospitals 12 10 83.33 0.35% 29.17 30.83 16.04
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration 84 70 83.33 2.21% 50 49.05 30.72
Steel & Iron 33 27 81.82 1.51% 42.8 38.06 17.44
REIT - Industrial 16 13 81.25 0.65% 66.74 59.77 52.09
Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified 5 4 80 0.28% 20 22 32.58
Dairy Products 5 4 80 0.42% 0 1.67 10.42
Foreign Utilities 5 4 80 0.61% 40 56 43.44
Resorts & Casinos 15 12 80 1.73% 51.67 47.34 30.23

Here are the industries that have 80% or better of their stocks advancing on the day.


Aluminum has only 5 stocks, and back in July of last year had none of it's stocks within the relative strength range. Since then it has been in a ferocious up trend, and currently has 3 of the 5 in the relative strength range, and the other 2 just outside it. All of them appear to have pretty bullish chart patterns, and the sector this is in, XLB, is currently the strongest in the market.



Market Leadership


Ticker 50-Day Simple Moving Average 52-Week High Change Shares Float Insider Ownership Insider Transactions Institutional Ownership Institutional Transactions Float Short Relative Volume
AAPL 4.01% -2.76% 0.86% 915.31 0.08% -8.67% 72.20% 0.93% 0.73% 0.98
AXTI 11.69% -9.93% -1.02% 30.49 1.60% -32.23% 59.09% -3.52% 4.04% 0.65
BIDU 3.03% -84.92% 1.61% 267.11 51.60%
5.78% 110.97% 3.33% 0.82
BKI 18.27% -9.13% 1.25% 38.42 3.87% 7.00% 93.56% 0.14% 3.83% 0.66
CIM 3.55% -1.42% -0.48% 837.5 0.07% 32.04% 56.98% 0.65% 4.67% 0.67
FSLR 12.05% -4.81% 2.43% 54.67 21.63% -3.84% 78.97% 7.92% 30.37% 0.66
IDCC 18.26% -4.43% 3.13% 43.63 0.96% -23.40% 60.60% -2.01% 15.95% 1.67
KLIC 25.31% -2.60% 3.51% 68.01 1.75% 79.44% 74.17% -0.23% 4.67% 1.15
LULU 6.20% -8.23% -0.22% 47.51 0.14% -5.24%
2.05% 16.18% 0.37
MELI -2.14% -14.54% 1.03% 30.37 0.04% -97.36% 70.26% 0.68% 12.21% 0.57
MOS 11.62% -5.37% 1.35% 159.91 0.11% 13.93% 28.63% 0.25% 2.28% 1.1
MU 25.20% -7.71% 1.46% 925.43 0.62% 6.92% 86.99% -0.51% 8.00% 0.91
NFLX 15.26% -1.45% -1.45% 50.48 0.34% -93.76% 85.10% -6.69% 22.24% 1.18
PCLN 2.36% -3.77% 0.28% 48.65 0.78% -9.46% 97.20% -23.11% 7.16% 0.67
RKT 18.37% -3.26% 0.53% 37.33 1.15% -0.86% 81.49% 0.83% 3.42% 1.33
SINA 17.39% -5.41% 5.58% 55.41 9.43%
92.60% -35.06% 11.64% 1.46
UFPT 30.28% -2.71% 3.30% 5.1 16.78% -3.69% 25.28% -9.76% 0.28% 1.78
ZAGG 12.43% -13.26% -1.51% 16.05 4.34% 24.19% 20.45% 7.80% 25.40% 0.59

Here is Monday's look at the new market leadership. If you missed the Saturday post, I am going to track the entire list since the Finviz screen page holds 20 charts, and there are normally less than 20 stocks that qualify for the list. CIM is a low priced stock, but does qualify on all counts, and does have a pretty enormous float. BIDU's data is screwed up; for some reason Finviz did an un-adjustment for a split it did several months ago.
There are several stocks with more than 10% of the float short, which makes them possible short squeeze targets.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. All but PLL are drug news related. I will quote a headline for PLL: "Pall shares surge as analyst sees sales possibility". What I want to know is, which analyst, what bank does he work for, how many shares are they selling, and why isn't the SEC all over it?

This Week's Economic Reports

Here is this week's economic reports schedule.

Here is the Treasury auction schedule for this week.

Today's Pivot Points


Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1321.88 R2 1310.18 R4 1291.5 High 1289.51
R2 1312.27 R1 1290.13 R3 1283.92 Low 1261.94
R1 1294.31 P 1282.61 R2 1281.39

P 1284.7 S1 1262.56 R1 1278.87

S1 1266.74 S2 1255.04 S1 1273.81

S2 1257.13

S2 1271.29

S3 1239.17

S3 1268.76





S4 1261.18

Monday Morning Update

Well, the lines looked right when I drew them this morning, and I was in a little bit of a hurry, but now that I see them again they are a bit cock-eyed. The middle pivot at 1283 is in the right place (and will probably be the most important one today), and the top and bottom pivots could be moved up or down a point or two. Leading up today are XLE and XLB, XLV and XLP are lagging pretty badly. The Nasdaq took quite a dive at the open, and is playing catch up now, so it is lagging, but the Russell 2000 is leading. Oil is up, gold down, and treasury yields are up. the dollar appears to be falling against every other currency I have looked at.

I have 66 new highs so far, with breakouts in DEPO, NPSP, PLL, TNB, RNO, and GTE. In keeping with the Monday tradition, only one of the 5 stocks I had scheduled to report this morning has: SOHU, which isup 1.2%. ALGT, CAVM, and NVLS are reporting today, but no time has been supplied. I have no idea when BIDU is actually reporting.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Bank Body Count



There were 4 banks down this week:

 - First Community Bank, New Mexico, estimated cost to FDIC $260 million
 - FirsTier Bank, Colorado, $242.6 million
  - First State Bank, Oklahnoma, $20.1 million
  - Evergreen State Bank, Wisconsin, $22.8 million

That brings to 11 the 2011 bank body count.

Railroads


Ticker Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range EPS growth past 5 years Return on Equity Shares Float Float Short 50-Day Simple Moving Average 200-Day Simple Moving Average 20 day v/ms
ARII 81.75 -0.36 -0.03 21.28 0.02 -0.02 0.22 2.59
CNI 100 0.13 0.19 461.79 0 0.02 0.08 1.67
CP 100 0.06 0.11 169.03 0.01 0.03 0.11 2.33
CSX 99.65 0.25 0.17 372.29 0.06 0.07 0.22 10.32
GBX 100 -0.36 0.02 22.75 0.03 0.13 0.47 16.01
GSH 74.16 0.07 0.06 81.32 0.02 0 0.08 0.56
GWR 92.03 0.11 0.11 38.17 0.04 0 0.19 4.71
KSU 87.53 0.2 0.07 100.63 0.04 0.01 0.19 11.13
NSC 82.6 0.04 0.13 362.22 0.01 -0.04 0.03 8.27
PWX 94.63 -0.17 0 3.71 0 0.21 0.39 0.83
RA 87.71 -0.27 -0.02 53.51 0.03 -0.02 0.1 2.4
RAIL 91.22 -0.46 -0.07 11.78 0.09 0.04 0.11 6.08
TRN 99.2 -0.21 0.04 77.75 0.11 0.09 0.26 8.37
UNP 90.45 0.23 0.16 492.14 0.01 0.01 0.16 6.84
WAB 98.33 0.28 0.14 45.74 0.06 0.04 0.14 4.63


Here is the railroad industry, which, in relative strength terms, has now made the top 10 in 40 week average, and appears to be rising, and in fact, all but one are in the relative strength range (and the one that isn;t is just barely out). However, none of these stocks would be considered close to market leaders, and a quick look at the charts suggests that this group could be topping out.

Earnings Schedule This Week

Here is what I have so far for an earnings schedule this week. None have been confirmed yet, and this will likely go through some revisions over the course of the week.

Earnings Growth Charts

I had 8 stocks on the earnings list reporting last week (not counting OFG, which apparently did report but I can find no numbers on it), but only 2 reported growth in earnings, including one that had triple digit growth. I have graphed those 2, along with 2 others of interest. In the top panel, red is EPS growth rate, black revenue growth rate. In the middle, the black line is price, red EPS, and blue price relative to SPX. I have introduced some reddish bars that represent annual EPS for these charts, and I will be trying to incorporate annual revenue in future charts. At the bottom the black bars are volume.



First up is DEST, which had triple digit growth last quarter, but unfortunately that was comparing it to a year ago, when it was reporting negative earnings, so it's not quite as impressive as it seemed at first. However, it is in a steady uptrend, earnings are growing, and this growth might continue. This does not have the consistency I am usually looking for, but it is still worth tracking.



This is ININ, which just reported a quarter of accelerating growth, and recently broke out to a 5 year high, and annual earnings still look quite good. It is actually pretty amazing how closely price has followed earnings, and it really sticks out when you look at the annual EPS.



ISSI is one of the stocks I added this quarter, so I wanted to take a look at the graph for it. It is now forming a base after a pretty good run off the 2009 bottom, and still appear to be in high growth mode, although they did report a negative growth quarter this quarter. Annual earnings are in an uptrend, but pretty inconsistent.


VLTR also reported negative growth this quarter, although the market seems to have been anticipating it with the base it has been in for a while. It may also be anticipating higher growth in coming quarters, as is is near completion of the right side of the base. We will just have to wait and see.

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