Monday New Highs

There were 412 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	12	8	66.67
REIT - Residential	21	14	66.67
Oil & Gas Pipelines	32	16	50
Long-Term Care Facilities	12	5	41.67
Gas Utilities	32	12	37.5
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	83	29	34.94
Hospitals	12	4	33.33
Jewelry Stores	6	2	33.33
Long Distance Carriers	3	1	33.33
REIT - Diversified	31	9	29.03

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
PDO	9.17	7.22%		PNNT	2.67	-1.17%
MXC	7.33	6.07%		FSLR	2.46	-5.35%
CENX	1.58	4.89%		LLNW	2.37	-5.83%
SLW	1.52	4.73%		CPE	2.17	-0.71%
AHD	2.56	4.70%		LDK	2.15	-6.88%
BRK-B	1.97	2.84%		WTW	2.09	-0.59%
SD	2.84	2.66%		WLL	2.05	-0.12%
AXAS	3.67	1.70%		HL	2.04	-5.93%
BDCO	14.13	1.60%		OCLR	1.99	-2.06%
ESV	1.81	1.25%		NVMI	1.98	-4.28%
GBR	17.44	1.00%		RVBD	1.8	-1.20%
FSC	2.32	0.51%		ALJ	1.79	-2.38%
				OPLK	1.7	-2.72%
				JDSU	1.63	-0.52%
				TSL	1.62	-5.06%
				SPRD	1.6	-6.16%
				TQNT	1.58	-4.75%

I had no sticks scheduled to report after the close. GGP was supposed to eport today, but i have no news on it. I will try to get a revised schedule up tomorrow.

Strange Behaviour

 The 20dema seemed to the the tesing ground today, after breaking through it at the open we pulled ight back to it, and it began to look like we were going to resume last week's decline, until a bounce off the 20 put us back positive for the day. What was really strange was the behavior of the sectors: normally defensive sectors were leading, and at one point we even had all sectors negative, but the index was positive. That kind of strange behavior is not giving me a lot of confidence that this is over. However, if IBD has us in a correction, then today was day 3 of a rally attempt, and tomorrow we will start looking for a follow through day.

The Nasdaq was painfully weak today, even though it got a positive finish, it was just barely.  The price relative line is in a slow, but steady, down trend, and making a lower low on he next pullback will reflect further weakening. If this weakness continue, it is going to be hard to ake the case that the market is not near a top.

The Dow industrials appear to have reversed a down trend in price relative, which also hurts the bullish case. This was by far the leading index today, and it appeared the main strength was JNJ and PFE, with a little help from HPQ, and nothing else.

The Russell 2000 is kind of in between; not as weak as the Nasdaq, but not quite gaining strength, either. As it passed the midpoint .of the current range, it revesed and headed back down toward it, so it appears we are encountering heavy resistance so far in the top haf of the range. Still, it does not appear to be weakening, either, so for now we can assume it is in ok shape.

Despite a gain on the Dow and SPX, today was not particularly bullish, both in the sectors and in leading stocks. Internally, advancers/decliners showed improvement, and new highs/new lows was good, but the market appears to have some work to do, and the uncertainty in the middle East is not helping any.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

CDE

CDE broke out big on earnings, as this has been a big beneficiary of rising silver prices. Unfortunately, rising oil prices could crimp margins, but so far it doesn't seem to have hurt. The main problem here is a v-shaped base, and an awfully deep dip in CMF during the base.

TREX

There were not a lot of earnings breakouts today, but here is one. TREX just recently began a new uptrend and spent the last two months building a first stage base, which it broke out of today. This could be the beginning of a pretty good move, as the earnings picture here is showing improvement.

PULS

PULS had been in a nasty long term down trend since November of 2009, but has ben in a medium term up trend since July of last year. Volume was quite high, which made me suspicious since I didn't see nay news non it, until just before the close, that there is apparently a buyout possibility here.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries that have 70% or better of their stocks advancing on the day, along with this weekend's relative strength data. REIT-residential and oil and gas pipelines are really sticking out here.

Beverages- brewers is a 9 stock group that is in the top 10 in 40 week average, meaning it has long term strength, but has recently fallen off a cliff. Most of the charts in the group look like they have soolid tops in place, some topping out last November, most of the rest topping out in January. This group has some wrk to do, but could be a target ffor rotation in coming months.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Change from Open	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
AAPL	3.66%	-3.60%	1.03%	0.17%	915.31	0.07%	-13.42%	70.76%	-0.65%	1.19%	0.9
ALTR	9.87%	-1.55%	-1.48%	-2.01%	319.41	0.17%	-5.23%	97.93%	-2.22%	4.87%	1.13
ATW	13.46%	-2.38%	-1.91%	-2.61%	56.38	0.78%	13.51%	89.27%	6.53%	9.74%	0.78
BIG	20.78%	-3.52%	0.17%	0.10%	74.84	0.64%	-74.27%	95.07%	-8.99%	5.89%	0.38
CDNS	10.91%	-3.70%	0.20%	-0.20%	265.43	0.27%	28.50%	92.69%	2.82%	7.87%	0.69
CLF	11.14%	-6.44%	-0.16%	-1.68%	133.23	0.44%	-10.51%	87.45%	2.25%	3.73%	1.06
DECK	7.64%	-7.30%	-0.58%	-0.93%	37.65	3.74%	-8.85%	92.51%	-6.53%	12.56%	1.01
DEST	119.94%	0.53%	1.21%	0.78%	5.37	2.43%	-77.72%	80.45%	14.97%	2.49%	0.51
FSLR	1.32%	-14.89%	-4.10%	-2.87%	55.59	21.60%	-3.59%	75.01%	2.47%	27.85%	1.9
IDCC	-1.30%	-18.93%	-1.72%	-1.45%	43.63	1.02%	-22.33%	63.79%	3.10%	17.88%	0.88
LULU	5.53%	-9.64%	0.30%	-1.24%	47.51	0.14%	-5.24%		2.05%	16.54%	0.58
NVLS	11.89%	-1.34%	-1.32%	-0.82%	89.73	0.34%	-28.13%	92.25%	-1.26%	5.01%	1.1
PCLN	5.23%	-3.52%	-1.56%	-1.71%	48.72	0.78%	-7.26%	96.27%	-0.90%	7.51%	1.15
TQNT	5.00%	-8.39%	-6.92%	-7.96%	158.25	0.49%	-12.37%	81.97%	1.89%	7.83%	1.24
TSL	4.10%	-14.17%	-5.85%	-6.22%	69.74			62.90%	-5.68%	11.91%	1.8
VSH	6.71%	-6.54%	-2.92%	-3.62%	150.21	0.30%	-1.98%	95.61%	-5.13%	11.34%	0.59

Here is the Monday look at the new market leadership. None are seeing particularly heavy volume today. As usual, we have plenty of short squeeze candidates.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are today's top 4 relative volume breakouts. Only TREX is on earnings: NHP is an acquisition so you can scratch that one.

This Week's Economic Reports

Here are this week's economic reports.

 

 We have a light treasury auction schedule this week.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1337.82	R2	1330.2	R4	1327.18	High	1320.25
R2	1329.21	R1	1326.52	R3	1323.53	Low	1306.98
R1	1324.55	P	1316.93	R2	1322.31
P	1315.94	S1	1313.25	R1	1321.1
S1	1311.28	S2	1303.66	S1	1318.66
S2	1302.67			S2	1317.45
S3	1298.01			S3	1316.23
				S4	1312.58

Monday Morning Update

The retracement of last week's drop continues, as this morning we blow past another minor resistance level at 1323, next stop 1333. Wow, is this ever wierd: the leading sector today, by a pretty good chunk, are XLU and XLV, lagging are XLE, XLF, and XLK. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both lagging. I have oil down a bit, gold up a bit, and treasury yields down a bit. For the big ramp in the SPX, the underlying internals are not supporting that bullishness.

I have 349 new highs so far, with breakouts in ARGN, MRX, NHP, TREX, CT, PULS, and PMFG. I have a bunch of stocks scheduled to report this morning, and it looks like some have actually reported: AFAM  up 1.4%, CDE up 13%, and EXAC up 2.3%. GGP is reporting today but no time has been supplied.

Bank Body Count

There was only one bank down this week:

- Valley Community Bank, Illinois - estimated  cost to FDIC $22.8 million.


That brings to 23 the 2011 bank body count.

Earnings Summary

Here is what i have for this week's earnings schedule so far. Nothing has been confirmed, and I will wager that very few, if any, of the stocks scheduled for tomorrow actually report. There will porbably be at least one revision over the course of the week.

Earnings Growth Charts

There were 11 stocks ont he earnings list reporting last week. One had a recent split (SKT) and I have to readjust the numbers for the split brfore I can graph it. I dd get 8 of them graphed so far, and have found something of interest in all of them. In the top panel, the red line is EPS growth rate, black revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, back is price, blue price relative to the SPX, and where the stock i reporting the end of a fiscal year, the red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

I have incomplete data on AMED, but it just had a drop in annual EPS. It recently crashed, so the market wasn't too happy with the drop (which, comparing it to a few others, doesn't look that bad, but the market may be anticipating further drops). This is gong to have a very tough time making the next cut.

This is DECK, which has had 5 years of high, and very consistent, annual earnings growth. he market has reponded by sending it to a five year high, and this is now one of the leading stocks.

This is EMCI. Looking at annual earnings, I can't for the life of me figure out what I was thinking when I put it on the list in the first place. For a growth stock to be considered a growth stock, there has to be growth, and there ain't any here.

LL went through high growth a couple of years ago, but has slowed down considerably since. It is, at least on an annual basis, still a growth story, and consistency is better than flashes of high growth followed by squat. This is currently in the base building process and could become a leading stock on it's next breakout.

RGR is one of the stocks that flashes high growth briefly, followed by squat. It did, however, just complete a year in which it slightly imroved on the high growth year prior. This could be developing into a more consistent growth stock, which is what I am looking for with this list.

TIS had some high growth coming off the 2009 bottom, and even spent quite a bit of time on the IBD 100, but the year just completed saw that growth vanish into thin air. This is another one that is going to have a hard time making the next cut.

TLVT is one I never get to graph, since it reports in Euros and the historical data is in dollars. However, I did find a site that converted it's EPS to dollars. the year just completed saw a drop in EPS after 4 years of pretty strong growth. It's not time to panic on this one yet.

TYL also had a slight drop in  annual EPS after 4strong year, and looking at price, the market does not seem to be terribly concerned about it.On  quarterly basis, this has been in an overall slow down for about 2 years. One advantage to that is it won't take that much to improve upon it.

Earnings Summary

Wrong again, I did have time for an earnings summary. There were 11 stocks from the earnings list reporting last week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating growth - TYL, RGR, DECK

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth -  AXTI

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - AMED, SKT, LL, TIS, EMCI, TLVT, ABVT

Those of you who followed the blog this week will undoutably understand I made no progress on the earnings spreadsheet.

New Leadership Scan

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
LULU	87.51	0.54	0.37	0.05	0.52	41.19	0.47
TSL	87.91	0.69	0.26	0.11	0.21	40.85	0.1
DECK	94.07	0.34	0.28	0.08	0.47	34.79	0.39
TQNT	86.01	0.45	0.27	0.13	0.57	33.79	0.44
FSLR	88.53	1.5	0.23	0.06	0.16	27.88	0.1
BIG	87.74	0.55	0.26	0.21	0.24	26.87	0.03
CLF	86.33	0.25	0.32	0.12	0.43	26.53	0.31
IDCC	85.02	0.31	0.73	0.01	0.45	25	0.44
NVLS	88.54	0.29	0.21	0.14	0.39	22.34	0.25
PCLN	88.67	0.67	0.33	0.07	0.41	20.33	0.34
AAPL	87.65	0.58	0.37	0.03	0.19	18.07	0.16
ATW	100	0.57	0.19	0.16	0.43	15.97	0.27
VSH	86.38	0.41	0.24	0.1	0.47	15.48	0.37
ALTR	89.87	0.27	0.46	0.12	0.39	15.29	0.27
DEST	87.09	0.36	0.32	0.11	0.35	14.63	0.24
CDNS	87.42	0.27	0.71	0.11	0.3	14.45	0.19

This week the leadership scan netted a total of 16 stocks, a more typical total than what we saw the last couple of weeks. Thee are a few newcomers to the list, and notably NFLX and BIDU are absent. I will be tracking all 16 stocks over the course of the week.

Relative Strength By Industry

 Here are as many industries as I could fit in my screen capture utility, ranked by the percentage of stocks in that industry that are currently in their relative strength ranges. I have hghlighted the top 10 groups in each category, and particular attention should be paid to those that have more than 3 categories highlighted. The column on the far right is the percentage of stocks advancing for the week, nt part of the relative strength scan but in addition to it.

Here they are ranked by stocks advancing. There does appear to be a minor correlation between this and short relative strength, but not enough to draw any real conclusions.

The realtive strength and industry spreadsheets are updated. I may not have time to do the earnings summary today, so  wwill do the leadership scan first, and will probably have the earnings summary tomorrow morning.

Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There were about 2080 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a small improvement over last week. From left to right, the first 4 columns are the stokcs from last week retained this week, the 5th column is the stocks ne on this week's list, and the 6th column is the stocks from lart week dropping off this week.


The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained				New	Off
AGNC	FSLR	NVMI	WNR	AXAS	AA
AHD	FTK	NYX	WTW	BDCO	ALLT
ALJ	FTO	OCZ	WYNN	CF	AMRN
ANF	GBDC	OPEN	ZAGG	CLR	CAVM
APKT	GT	PNNT		CPE	DDS
ARUN	HL	PTEN		CPX	DTLK
BIDU	HOS	RDWR		DEPO	EAT
BIG	ICO	RFMD		ESV	GEOI
BRK.B	INPH	RKT		GBR	IPCC
BSQR	KLIC	RVBD		GDP	IPHI
BWLD	KND	SD		GMCR	JCP
BZ	KRO	SLW		JDSU	KV.A
CENX	LDK	SNDK		MXC	NETL
CIEN	LLNW	SOHU		OCLR	NOVA
CLDA	LNG	SOLR		OPLK	PAL
CLF	LULU	SWC		PDO	SINA
CMG	LVS	TER		RES	SODA
CRUS	MOBI	TQNT		SGI	SRX
CVI	MOS	TSL		SPRD	SWKS
DBLE	MTW	TSO		SVVS	UA
DECK	MU	TTWO		WLL	YGE
DSW	NANO	UFPT
ERTS	NDAQ	UIS
FNSR	NFLX	URI
FSC	NVDA	VLO

Leader Charts

Last week we saw some weakness in the market leaders, which was raising a red flag, and this week, sure enough, we saw the overall market get hit pretty hard. This week the leaders again underperformed the market: there were no big gainers, and very few that gained at all, and several big decliners. PCLN was by a small marging the biggest gainers, having reported this week after two days of bombardment. Interstingly enough, last Friday (blue arrow) was also a pretty big down day, although nowhere near the volume we got on Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the big selling it did hold support, but even with the big earnings gap, it can't yet get through resistance. This is an indication to me that the market is not yet ready to resume an uptrend, and initiating new positions here is not a good idea.

ATW was the only oil related stock on the list, and ended up with the second bet gain. Technically is brke out of a very small consolidation yesterday, but on low volume, so I would not be pouncing on this. This did not spike up on Tuesday and Wednesday the way several other oil related stocks did, which mayn actually be good as it appears this will not be the target of rampant speculation.

NFLX is a good illustration of several lessons I learned this week. I took a position in this when it gapped up on it's latest report, especially when hearing that the Hedge Fund guy that has been shorting this decided to throw in the towel. I figured it would get a pretty decent short squeeze for a few days, then turn down, pobably coming back to the breakout point. That is pretty much what it did, and had i been on the ball i would have made a really nice gain. Last Friday I thought about tightening my stop (or even getting out altogether), but decided the chart looked fine, I didn't need to do anything (Lesson #1: When the market is complacent, it is time for caution. When you are complacent, it is time for extreme caution). On Tuesday, I had come down with a bug, didn't get up until an hour after the open, wasn't thinking clearly, and sat and watched this dropping like a rock. By the time I realized what was going on, it hit the stop I had on it, and a big profit turned into a little profit. (Lesson #2: If you are sick or otherwise incapacitated, do not try to trade the market. if you are not thinking clearly, you will make some pretty nasty mistakes). NFLX is now still holding support, and may turn back up from here, but it is too early to tell.

Friday New Highs

There were 232 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	RS	Percent
REIT - Residential	21	9	42.86
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	12	5	41.67
Long Distance Carriers	3	1	33.33
Long-Term Care Facilities	12	4	33.33
Oil & Gas Pipelines	32	10	31.25
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	84	23	27.38
Gas Utilities	31	6	19.35
Cleaning Products	6	1	16.67
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	48	8	16.67
REIT - Diversified	31	5	16.13

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
SD	4.72	14.71%		LLNW	6.65	-5.02%
AHD	2.85	10.14%		DECK	2.82	-1.67%
UIS	2.67	1.44%		WTW	2.59	-1.27%
FTO	2.46	9.66%		JCP	2.49	-6.54%
LNG	2.34	14.57%		LDK	2.39	-2.76%
CVI	2.28	4.61%		FSLR	2.16	-5.44%
ALJ	2.22	7.28%
EAT	1.87	2.98%
IPCC	1.8	2.22%
NVMI	1.73	4.69%
WNR	1.58	5.01%
HOS	1.56	2.42%
URI	1.55	7.19%

I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend. I am so glad this week is finally over.