Thursday New Highs

There were 418 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Cigarettes	7	3	42.86
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	12	5	41.67
Health Care Plans	17	7	41.18
Foreign Utilities	5	2	40
Medical Equipment Wholesale	8	3	37.5
Long Distance Carriers	3	1	33.33
REIT - Healthcare Facilities	12	4	33.33
Metal Fabrication	13	4	30.77
Air Services, Other	7	2	28.57
Healthcare Information Services	11	3	27.27

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list.

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
TRGP	8.55	2.08%		GBDC	5.15	-6.96%
BSFT	3	5.85%		BRK-B	2.52	-2.14%
WTW	2.99	4.63%		TORM	2.4	-6.70%
MFA	2.39	0.24%		PAY	1.78	-3.33%
SGI	2.01	7.21%		SPRD	1.65	-4.43%
HERO	1.72	4.59%		TZOO	1.58	-2.76%
SOHU	1.65	2.56%
OCZ	1.58	5.33%
TWI	1.58	1.64%
HCN	1.58	0.11%
ALJ	1.52	2.09%
RCKBD	1.51	0.19%

I have nothing from any of my watchlists scheduled to report for the rest of the week.

End Of Quarter Follies

The SPX seems to be running into resistance at pretty even intervals (I fudged the middle one a little to make it fit), but those resistance levels aren't lasting too long. 1332 is going to be pretty key, and we are starting to get overbought (above 80 on stochastics is considered overbought, but it looks to me like we have spent more time over 80 than under in the last 6 months). MACD is still going up, slowing down just slightly today. We could roll over at any time, but so far this market refuses to die. We are still waiting for a follow through day call from IBD, and they have pointed out several times that all major up moves start with one. If we don't get it, this move will end soon.

Did you notice the usual last minute sell off in the SPX and Dow? Did you also notice it didn;t happen on the Nasdaq? Things like that usually mean something, although looking at the chart, the Nasdaq was nowhere near resistance, so maybe it doesn't mean something. It is still strange to see the SPX drop 4 points while the Nasdaq barely budges, but that could be  bullish sign.

The Russell 2000 also did not sell off, but it just broke through resistance. It should next encoun ter some resistance at about 850, which I believe may be an all time high. The technicals say this has more upside to go. 

The percentage of stocks above the Nasdaq above the 50dma. Above 50 we are in the bullish zone, below 30 is the bearish zone, and between 30 and 50 is a transition zone. The barely went into the bearish zone, which says that the correction we just experienced was not a real correction, more of a market hiccup. When it gets above 70 we start looking for a trend reversal, and this isn;t anywhere near there now.

On the NYSE the levels are probably not quite the same: I have been giving it a 10 point fudge factor which has worked reasonably well. We did dip pretty deep into bearish territory, but were not there long enough for me to consider it a real correction. That means one of two things: 1) another correction is coming soon; or 2) the power of money printing is a hell of a lot more than I have been giving it credit for.

As far as I know IBD still has the market in a correction. I have no reason whatsoever to doubt their judgement (and when I have in the past, I had my head handed to me), but I am cautiously getting back into the market here. We still have several leading stocks holding up well, and a few moving up, so it might pay to anticipate another move up.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

MCZ

MCZ started a big move in early February, only to hit a brik wall a couple of weeks later. Instead of collapsing it stayed high and built a base, and is breaking out of it now. It is getting a huge increas in average daily vilume and is obviously getting someone's attention. The bit negative dips in CMF are a littl troublesome, but price relative is nicely high. It is a little too speculative for me here, but this could be the early stages of big move. This one should be looked at pretty closely.

UTEK

I have no news on UTEK, so I don't know why it got popped today, but just looking at the chart it is pretty clear somebody likes this one. The price relative is fairly high, and CMF stayed positive over the ourse of a two month base. This is another one which should be looked at closely.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries that have 70% or better of their stocks advancing today.

These are the industries with 20% or better of their stocks making new highs today.

Their isn't much common to both lists today. Leading the first is REIT-Residential, which in terms of relative strength is one of the strongest groups in the market. It has only one stock hitting a new high today, but several are setting up in bases and we may strt seeing some breakouts in this group withing the next couple of weeks.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
SOHU	11.14%	-1.94%	63.74	3.21%	4.07%	-0.83%	2.01
RNOW	9.51%	-7.08%	55.58	-3.11%	-3.14%	0.03%	1.43
MELI	17.39%	0.81%	80.33	1.24%	0.57%	0.67%	1.11
GPOR	31.60%	-0.18%	73.67	0.89%	0.30%	0.59%	1.09
LULU	15.66%	-2.43%	71.46	-1.20%	-1.05%	-0.16%	0.94
SOLR	-0.52%	-9.62%	50.93	-3.23%	-3.23%	0.00%	0.81
CBST	9.29%	-1.61%	70.23	0.72%	0.68%	0.04%	0.8
BIDU	13.78%	-0.71%	72.63	0.86%	0.87%	-0.01%	0.79
MU	7.19%	-2.76%	61.45	0.35%	0.43%	-0.09%	0.79
ALTR	5.97%	-4.13%	58.83	-1.51%	-1.33%	-0.18%	0.73
SWN	11.20%	-4.24%	68.67	0.21%	0.12%	0.09%	0.63
VSH	2.79%	-6.75%	54.48	-1.24%	-1.07%	-0.17%	0.58
CLF	7.92%	-3.45%	60.91	-0.07%	0.06%	-0.13%	0.57
NFLX	10.18%	-4.75%	65.06	-0.91%	-0.63%	-0.28%	0.54
LXU	21.42%	-1.91%	77.03	-0.25%	-0.65%	0.40%	0.53
AAPL	0.52%	-4.38%	52.63	0.08%	0.72%	-0.64%	0.52
IPXL	9.48%	-2.60%	64.41	-0.04%	-0.47%	0.43%	0.52
JOYG	5.02%	-3.35%	60.09	1.84%	1.77%	0.06%	0.49
CMG	10.14%	-1.24%	70.65	-0.22%	0.48%	-0.70%	0.48
IMAX	16.25%	-2.55%	69.42	-0.62%	-0.62%	0.00%	0.46
BIG	10.29%	-1.66%	64.81	-1.03%	-1.03%	0.00%	0.38
FOSL	16.14%	-0.67%	73.97	-0.39%	0.37%	-0.76%	0.33
SHS	41.78%	-1.40%	78.35	-1.33%	-1.27%	-0.06%	0.29
VECO	6.82%	-6.68%	60.52	-0.80%	-0.92%	0.12%	0.28
ULTA	14.73%	-1.15%	68.45	-0.80%	-0.66%	-0.14%	0.27
AGP	13.66%	-0.93%	71.27	-0.75%	-0.98%	0.23%	0.25
CTB	9.74%	-0.99%	63.66	-0.08%	0.19%	-0.27%	0.21

Yesterday the leaders were sleep walking, today they are comatose. The only one making a move of note is SOHU, which broke out two days ago, pulled back yestrday, and is resuming the up move today.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

We have lots of new highs this morning, but so far no really good breakouts. These are the top 4 in relative volume. None that I know of are on earnings.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1342.55	R2	1337.39	R4	1333.68	High	1334.93
R2	1337.15	R1	1333.19	R3	1330.97	Low	1325.08
R1	1332.7	P	1327.54	R2	1330.07
P	1327.3	S1	1323.34	R1	1329.16
S1	1322.85	S2	1317.69	S1	1327.36
S2	1317.45			S2	1326.45
S3	1313			S3	1325.55
				S4	1322.84

Thursday Morning Update

One of the reasons I have been using Scottrade's charts for the morning update was that when you put a horizontal line on a chart, it returned a number telling you, to the penny, where that line was. It still does that, but now the numbers are incorrect. Fortunately, I already know where the upper and lower pivot point are (1332 and 1319), so coming up with the mid point was just a matter of arithmetic. 1225.50 is the middle, and that is where we bounced after a short drop this morning. We have several economic reports this morning, which I will ignore for now since the market is also ignoring them. We also have end of month and end of quarter follies today, so we may see all kinds of wierd stuff in the market today. The leading sector this morning is XLB, followed closely by XLI, with XLY and XLF lagging. The Nasdaq is about even with the SPX, the Russell 2000 has a slight lead. Oil is up big, gold is up, and treasury yields are up.

I have 300 new highs so far this morning, but niot a lot of breakouts: LUNA, SYMX, ICLK, and MAKO are about it on the high volume side. Last noght we had a report from MOS, up 0.7%. JOSB was supposed to report today, but apparently they reported yesterday before the open. I also have OPEN scheduled, but they have not reported.

Wednesday New Highs

There were 447 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Cigarettes	7	6	85.71
Railroads	15	8	53.33
Long-Term Care Facilities	12	6	50
Health Care Plans	17	8	47.06
Insurance Brokers	12	5	41.67
Aluminum	5	2	40
Foreign Utilities	5	2	40
Hospitals	13	5	38.46
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	28	10	35.71
Major Integrated Oil & Gas	12	4	33.33

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
WTW	3.59	4.88%		TORM	1.92	-2.22%
TZOO	2.73	2.70%		SOHU	1.72	-2.76%
BSFT	2.1	3.14%
HERO	2.02	7.12%
ALJ	1.92	6.76%
HK	1.72	5.84%
GBDC	1.7	4.95%
MHR	1.68	5.76%
SPRD	1.68	2.54%
MOBI	1.61	2.34%
GT	1.55	1.42%
MRX	1.54	4.08%
DK	1.52	3.57%
RES	1.52	3.56%
PAY	1.51	0.60%

I have MOS reporting after the close and down 1.8% in after hours trading. before the open I have OPEN and JOSB scheduled to report.

Cease Fire

 Sell signals on the Elder impulse charts have not been terribly reliable for the past few months, but buy signals sure have been. If you had bought on the first green bar, which happened to coincide with the breakout past the 50dema, you would be sitting on a pretty nice gain right now. The next hurdle for the SPX is 1332, and if we get past that IBD will probably have no choice but put the uptrend back in effect, follow through day or no follow through day. V shaped recoveries have not historically been very reliable, and I would not be surprised to see the market falter again if it gets to a new high, but that ius getting ahead of ourselves, and once again, the market is not showing any signs of an imminent drop.

 The buy signal on the nasdaq came a few days before the "follow through day that wasn't", and also before it broke out past the 50dema. Like the SPX, thiis has an intermediate level of resistance to get through before attempting to get to a new high.

Unlike the SPX, the Russell 2000 is at a new high, and staking out new territory. Why this has been so strong is beyond me, but strength in the Russell is historically bullish, so until this changes I wouldn't think about shorting. 

Once again XLE is the leading sector by RSI, but keep an eye on XLP, that thing has been making a pretty big move. Most noticeable here is the lack of sell signals in the last 6 months; only 4, and all 4 marked the bottom of shallow pullbacks. This probably has a week or so to go before getting into overbought territory, so it may lead for another week.

XLF is the weakest sector, and is nowhere near oversold, but may be starting a pretty good move here. It not only broke above the 50dema, it also broke a short down trend line and has room to go before hitting significant resistance. I normally don't buy weakness, but in this case it might pay off.

What began as a dead cat bounce is clearly no longer one. Although volume has been a joke, selling isn't materializing either.  The market seems to be in an uneasy cease fire, and we are waiting to see if it's the bulls or the bears to begin hostilities again.


I will have the new highs update shortly.

LNN

You hate to see the dreaded black candle on an earnings breakout, and LNN has the double whammy of closing below the breakout point, but in this case that might not be the kiss of death. The price relative line on this thing is very strong, and the likelyhood is that this still has some upside to go.

PPG

I didn't think I would see a price relative line stronger than LNN, but it only took a few minutes to find PPG. Holy cow.

OXM

OXM had the highest relative volume of the earnings breakouts today, and made quite a big move, but came out of a very weak pattern. Whether or not this is a game changer is unknown, but the probability is it is a flash in the pan.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries with 85% or better of their stocks advancing on the day.

Here are the industries that have 20% or better of their stocks making new highs. At the bottom of the first list and top of the second is cigarettes, which i just recently graphed, so I won't graph it today, but I took a look at the charts for the group. These are those, ranked top to bottom by market cap:

Holy cow!

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
LXU	22.86%	-1.31%	0.79%	-0.57%	1.37%	1.89
SOHU	9.13%	-3.39%	-1.84%	-3.80%	2.03%	1.79
MELI	15.71%	0.47%	2.18%	1.96%	0.22%	1.73
LULU	17.88%	0.86%	0.95%	-0.21%	1.17%	1.46
GPOR	31.24%	0.17%	2.62%	1.32%	1.28%	1.45
BIDU	13.55%	0.10%	0.47%	-1.17%	1.65%	1.27
IMAX	18.19%	0.84%	3.43%	2.91%	0.51%	1.16
CMG	10.39%	-1.33%	1.96%	-0.07%	2.03%	1.12
MU	7.48%	-2.85%	-1.28%	-2.19%	0.94%	0.93
SWN	12.26%	-3.54%	2.71%	1.51%	1.18%	0.85
BIG	11.78%	-0.91%	0.88%	0.32%	0.56%	0.76
NFLX	12.15%	-3.44%	0.70%	0.15%	0.55%	0.75
JOYG	3.43%	-4.86%	1.09%	-0.01%	1.10%	0.74
AAPL	0.45%	-4.49%	-0.69%	-0.62%	-0.07%	0.71
ALTR	7.96%	-2.56%	-0.05%	-0.45%	0.41%	0.68
CLF	7.92%	-3.61%	0.82%	-0.58%	1.40%	0.67
SOLR	2.90%	-6.53%	-0.27%	-1.06%	0.80%	0.66
RNOW	13.33%	-4.15%	1.33%	0.06%	1.26%	0.6
IPXL	10.47%	-1.95%	2.47%	1.76%	0.70%	0.57
SHS	42.56%	0.42%	0.52%	0.12%	0.40%	0.55
VECO	7.42%	-6.24%	1.71%	1.21%	0.50%	0.51
ULTA	16.69%	0.39%	2.24%	2.30%	-0.06%	0.46
FOSL	15.74%	0.38%	0.52%	-0.48%	1.01%	0.44
CBST	9.00%	-2.10%	0.75%	0.71%	0.04%	0.43
VSH	4.42%	-5.45%	0.48%	-0.31%	0.78%	0.37
AGP	14.43%	1.53%	2.10%	1.37%	0.72%	0.34
CTB	10.26%	-0.54%	1.48%	1.05%	0.43%	0.3

Here are this week's leaders, ranked by relative volume. None are getting really heavy volume or making big moves, but several are at new highs.

Here is a link to the charts.