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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Saturday, April 30, 2011

New Leadership Scan

Ticker Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range EPS growth past 5 years Return on Equity 50-Day Simple Moving Average 200-Day Simple Moving Average 20 day v/ms X
NFLX 88.92 0.36 0.66 0.03 0.3 105.99 0.27
SOHU 100 0.35 0.21 0.2 0.52 89.39 0.32
VHC 94.71 0.63 1.63 0.42 0.85 76.78 0.43
CMG 85.9 0.32 0.23 0.02 0.25 46.37 0.23
WLT 90.82 0.5 0.87 0.09 0.33 41.09 0.24
CYOU 93.82 0.25 0.55 0.27 0.45 40.59 0.18
LULU 95.96 1.41 0.39 0.18 0.65 39.86 0.47
SPRD 87.17 0.28 0.42 0.05 0.32 37 0.27
BIDU 95.44 1.33 0.54 0.12 0.38 31.32 0.26
MU 94.01 0.45 0.21 0.03 0.28 30.29 0.25
VECO 89.16 0.52 0.46 0.05 0.2 29.32 0.15
DECK 95.89 0.38 0.28 -0.03 0.24 25.87 0.27
QCOR 97.31 0.42 0.35 0.33 0.56 24.71 0.23
HITK 100 0.31 0.24 0.24 0.27 23.67 0.03
MELI 100 1.31 0.39 0.2 0.31 22.76 0.11
SOLR 87.56 0.78 1.1 0.07 0.24 21.58 0.17
CLF 92.13 0.25 0.32 -0.01 0.24 21.47 0.25
CROX 100 0.25 0.2 0.1 0.28 21.36 0.18
CAVM 98.4 0.56 0.19 0.11 0.33 20 0.22
WDC 86.07 0.46 0.17 0.12 0.25 17.99 0.13
AGP 100 0.4 0.25 0.12 0.45 16.5 0.33
ATML 89.18 0.31 0.47 0.13 0.46 16.25 0.33
AAPL 87.13 0.58 0.39 0.02 0.13 16.03 0.11
AMZN 98.23 0.26 0.19 0.11 0.2 15.31 0.09
HS 100 0.7 0.19 0.1 0.45 15.21 0.35
IRBT 90.9 0.55 0.17 0.13 0.49 14.56 0.36
JOYG 95.57 0.3 0.41 0.06 0.28 14.49 0.22
BIIB 94.91 0.53 0.19 0.3 0.51 14.38 0.21
ISRG 86.99 0.3 0.2 0.03 0.16 14.3 0.13
UFPT 86.13 0.61 0.21 0.12 0.44 14.27 0.32
SHS 100 0.43 1.11 0.29 1.01 14.26 0.72
ALTR 100 0.27 0.46 0.14 0.4 14.16 0.26
CHSI 100 0.27 0.17 0.14 0.35 14.01 0.21

This week's leadership scan gave up 33 stocks, including a few newcomers to the list, WDC and CHSI in particular. I will try to track all 33 over the course of the week, if it proves to be too difficult I may limit it to the top 20.

Earnings Summary

The week from earnings hell had 24 stocks from the earning list reporting this week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - BWLD, TYL, IVC

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - ININ, ARB, CPLA, DDIC, DEST, RNOW, NANO, DECK, CAVM

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - VLTR, AMED, SKT, LL, TESS, ISSI, CKSW, LANC, RGR, AFAM, CATM, ALGT

The relative strength and industry spreadsheets are uploaded. the earnings spreadsheet will be partially updated later this weekend.

Relative Strength By Industry

Here are the top industries in percentage of stocks within the relative strength range this week. Each category has the top groups highlighted, and I will be concentrating on those groups that have 4 or more categories highlighted, however, any industry with less than 10 stocks should be taken with a grain of salt,



Here are the bottom industries, with very few highlights, except for percentage of stocks advancing on the week, further proof that that data is of limited value.




Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are about 2350 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a small increase from last week. From left to right, the first 4 columns are the stocks from last week's list retained this week, the 5th column is the new stocks this week, and the 6th is the stocks dropping off this week's list.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained


New Off
AA DSW OPEN SWSH AKS AHGP
AMRN EXK OVTI TSL AMD ALJ
ANF FTK PANL TSO BRK.B ANN
APKT GBX PAY TZOO BZ ATEA
ARUN GGC PCX URI CRR BBRG
BBBB GME REDF VECO CYOU CF
BDCO GPOR REE VHC GENE DISH
BIDU GT RES VMW IDIX DTLK
BLTI HERO SATS VRA IL EMC
BMY HK SD WLT ISIL END
BRNC ICO SFUN WNR KUTV HITK
BSFT INPH SIFY WPRT LOGM MELI
CBST KOG SINA WTW OIS MHR
CDE LNG SKS WYNN QCOR MOS
CENX LULU SLW YOKU REGN NXPI
CIEN LVS SNDK ZAGG SCG OXM
CLR MCP SODA
SKH PFSW
CMG MOBI SOHU
STEC PLCE
CPX MU SPRD
TQNT TDSC
DDS NFLX SRZ
UA TORM
DECK OAS STX
WTI TRGP


Leader Charts

 Despite big gains in the overall market, it was a pretty mediocre week on the leadership list, with an overall gain of less than 1%. There were 3 stocks with gains of over 7%, but 2 with losses of more than 7%, and a few earnings hits. CYOU was the big gainer on the week, reporting earnings out of the chute on Monday morning. Last Friday (the blue arrows on the charts are last Friday's candles), it weent right into a pivot point, and since it was right at resistance and set to report, only the daredevils would have bought this, but it would have paid off. This is a classic speculative stock, and one I would use a small postion (probably about on e quarter of my normal position) and either a very wide or no stop.


It's brother in arms, SOHU (if I remember correctly, CYOU is actually a spin off of SOHU), was the second biggest gainer, and this was also on earnings. This one is much more stable, has a stronger price relative line, and could be just about the strongest stock in the market right now. I don't know about you, but the success of Chinese online gaming (read gambling) has me confident in the U.S. economy.


DECK was the biggest decliner. This was the stock that would not die, and prior to yesterday was one of the strenger stock, but got hit on earnings yesterday. The throw salt on the wound, the 50dma was broke, the middle pivot of the range was also broken, and this looks like it has no support above 77.50. I will stay away from this for 10 trading days, then come back to it and see if it is showing signs of reversing. If so, it may resume it's up trend, but will probably inflict more pain before then.


NFLX was the second biggest decliner. also hit on earnings. The last time it happened (which was over 6 months ago, so it's not on the chart), it declined for 4 trading days before reversing and moving higher, so I missed it because of my 10 trading days rule. That, however, is the exception, and it is not a good bet that something like that will happen again, but this is still above key support, so it does bear watching. NFLX has been a leading stocks for going on 4 years now, so it has to be getting near the top, but when that will be I don't know.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Friday New Highs

There were 481 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list.

Name Stocks NH Percent
Cigarettes 7 4 57.14
Diversified Utilities 25 14 56
REIT - Industrial 16 7 43.75
Oil & Gas Pipelines 33 14 42.42
CATV Systems 19 8 42.11
Auto Dealerships 12 5 41.67
Chemicals - Major Diversified 16 6 37.5
REIT - Residential 22 8 36.36
Health Care Plans 17 6 35.29
Gas Utilities 32 11 34.38

These ae the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:


Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
GT 3.71 12.04%
TORM 3.67 -8.15%
SIFY 3.37 1.35%
DECK 3.05 -10.15%
REDF 2.95 0.18%
MOBI 2.9 -1.63%
BBRG 1.53 1.03%
TDSC 2.43 -2.27%
HERO 1.52 6.90%




I will have a complete earnings summary this weekend.

Friday Weekly Charts


 Trying to guess where the next level of resistance is going to be is probably a pretty pointless exercise, just the sort of thing I do best. Torturing the chart here reveals a possible resistance level somewhere near 1380, a level that keeps coming up in my chart analysis. Of course, we won;t know were the resistance is until the market stops going up, and at this point it doesn't look like anytime soon. One obvious point you see in this chart is the rise in CMF, which didn't happen during the March rally, so it does appear the big money is moving this market up now.



 On the weekly chart the pivot point near 1350 was pretty obvious, and pretty strong, but gave way finally this week. That point, along with the prior point, gives a target here near 1490, an d if we can get that high, it is very likely we will be aiming for the 2007 high. That will make the next crash that much worse, but I am getting ahead of myself here.

 The Russell 2000 is now at an all time high. Bernanke loves to point to this as evidence of the success of quantitative easing, and for all those millions of middle class Americans who own Russell 2000 stocks, it has been a huge success. Oh, wait, they don't own Russell 2000 stocks?

 
 Here is the real success of QE; commodities, especially gold, have shot up in price. Gold has been in a solid, relentless up trend for almost 3 years. Notice that on every pullback, the low was higher than the previous los. Any pullbacks here have to be considered buying opportunities, if we get any. 

This is getting scary. This is a classic parabolic move which will probably lead to a classic blow off top. It might just be getting near, because everyone, and I mean everyone, is asking me if they should buy silver. By the way, unlike oil, Bernanke can't blame the tree huggers or Arabs for this.


This is the driver of it all. the dollar was crushed in 2008 in an attempt to kick start a stalling economy, and while we got a rally on the back of a falling dollar, we also had moonshots in commodity prices. Well, it appears we are going to do more of what didn't work the first time. Neither result of this scenario is particularly appealing: either the dollar reverses and we have another deflationary collapse, or it keeps dropping and go into inflationary hell.

The market, and the economy, can be compared to the star quarterback who just injured his ankle during the big game. The trainer shoots him full of pain killers so he can still play, and while he performs valiantly, the long term consequences are going to be devastating. I can guarantee you that Bernanke knows what he is casing here, but unfortunately our leaders in Congress and the White House wither don't know, or don't care.
The worst part is, it is not going to be us that are crippled, it will be our children and grandchildren.

I will have the new highs update shortly. 

NTGR

NTGR gapped up huge on earnings from an unfinished base. I don;t know what the probability that this iwill continue higher is, but I don;t really like the pattern much, as this just gapped to high for my taste, and the unfinished base might not provide a very good platform for a move up. About the best you can hope for here is a pull back to the breakout point, but even that might be awfully risky. Despite the big move here, i would look for better opportunities.

N

Possibly the best looking of the earnings breakouts today, N had about a 2 month flat base that is broke out of, with a pretts strong price relative and CMF that stayed mostly positive. The only real flaw is a rising ATR line, you would prefer to see it dropping before the breakout, but other than that there really isn't anything wrong here.

TLVT


TLVT caught my attention late because it is on the earnings list and thought I had missed a report, but there isn't any news on it. It is not a terribly well formed base, and the price relative line is weak, but today's move and volume is impressive considering that there wasn;t any reason for it I can see.

This Week's Industry Performance


Here are the industries that had the highest percentages of stocks advancing for the week. I was about tp give up on this scan, but there is at least a little correlation this week, so it's probably worth continuing.



It is also interesting to see which groups had the smallest percentages of stocks advancing. They also have very few other indications of any kind of strength. If nothing else, we can isolate some of the weakest groups with this scan.













Market Leader Performance

Ticker Performance (Week) Relative Volume Change
CYOU 17.04% 1.81 3.54%
SOHU 11.98% 1.04 0.91%
IMAX 8.84% 1.35 0.55%
AGP 7.65% 1 -0.20%
QCOR 7.61% 0.64 -1.65%
HS 6.51% 0.65 -0.95%
ATML 5.84% 0.62 1.95%
CROX 5.34% 4.16 -5.12%
VHC 5.20% 0.74 -2.01%
SHS 4.21% 1.02 -1.31%
JOYG 3.11% 0.82 1.32%
HITK 3.07% 0.31 -0.04%
CAVM 2.28% 1.36 -0.34%
MELI 2.26% 0.48 0.56%
CBST 1.92% 0.44 0.65%
WLT 1.92% 0.91 3.51%
AAPL 1.27% 0.84 1.72%
SPRD 0.88% 0.46 -1.57%
CLF 0.86% 1.32 -1.42%
FOSL -0.08% 0.45 -0.10%
LXU -0.18% 0.29 1.71%
LULU -0.40% 0.47 1.11%
BIDU -0.71% 1.03 1.19%
DECK -1.37% 3.12 -8.35%
SFUN -1.76% 0.18 3.00%
ISRG -1.92% 0.42 -0.51%
NFLX -4.12% 0.47 -0.07%
RKT -4.76% 0.52 0.84%
CMG -7.80% 0.44 0.65%

Here is the performance for the leadership list for the last 5 days (not including today), along with today's relative volume and change.


Early Industry Leaders

Name Stocks NH Pct
Cigarettes 7 4 57.14
Diversified Utilities 25 10 40
Oil & Gas Pipelines 33 11 33.33
CATV Systems 19 6 31.58
Chemicals - Major Diversified 16 5 31.25
Sporting Goods 10 3 30
Health Care Plans 17 5 29.41
Diversified Computer Systems 7 2 28.57
Railroads 15 4 26.67
Auto Dealerships 12 3 25
Conglomerates 12 3 25

Here are the early leaders among the industries in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. All but LVB are on earnings; I have no idea what is going on with that one.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1371.7 R2 1367.18 R4 1364.94 High 1365.15
R2 1366.71 R1 1364.54 R3 1362.71 Low 1357.04
R1 1363.59 P 1359.07 R2 1361.97

P 1358.6 S1 1356.43 R1 1361.22

S1 1355.48 S2 1350.96 S1 1359.74

S2 1350.49

S2 1358.99

S3 1347.37

S3 1358.25





S4 1356.02


Friday Morning Update

It wasn't that long go we saw the market move up, then sideways for a day or two, then up again, and here we go, doing it again. I'm not sure exactly where those pivot points are because the chart is giving me erroneous numbers, but an eyeball estimate says 1338 at the bottom, 1350 in the middle, and 1362 at the top. The sectors are pretty easy to figure out: just reverse yesterday's order, as yesterday's leaders are today's laggards and vice versa. Leading up are XLE and XLI, lagging are XLF and XLK. The Nasdaq, which lagged badly yesterday, is doing so again today, while the Russell 2000 is about even. Oil and gold are up a bit, treasury yields down a bit. The dollar, which strengthened a bit overnight, went back into freefall at the open. 

I have 297 new highs today, with breakouts in LVB, NTGR, MASC, N, GNET, ASGN, LEG, CERN, TNAV, KEG, and CAT. Today is the Day From Earnings Hell, so I better get right to it:  These are from last night:
Ticker Change
AFAM -1.63%
ALGT 3.34%
CATM 2.83%
CAVM -2.48%
CLF -3.25%
CSTR 7.08%
DECK -7.31%
EXXI 2.04%
MWW -7.64%
NANO -2.55%
TYL -1.51%

From this morning:

Ticker Change
AGP -0.73%
AXL 2.46%
BEXP 1.30%

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Thursday New Highs

There were 481 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Percent
REIT - Residential 22 15 68.18
Drugs Wholesale 6 4 66.67
Health Care Plans 17 10 58.82
REIT - Healthcare Facilities 12 7 58.33
REIT - Industrial 16 9 56.25
Diversified Utilities 25 12 48
Railroads 15 7 46.67
REIT - Retail 43 20 46.51
REIT - Office 13 5 38.46
Chemicals - Major Diversified 16 6 37.5
Medical Equipment Wholesale 8 3 37.5

These are the high volume advaners and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
REDF 5.7 1.23%
TDSC 7.29 -17.65%
SIFY 4.62 8.10%
BIDU 2.33 -1.89%
MOBI 3.78 8.47%
EXK 1.83 -2.01%
AMRN 2.49 6.37%
TZOO 1.56 -1.46%
DSW 1.8 0.08%
APKT 1.53 -2.04%
SOHU 1.72 0.11%



VHC 1.5 7.61%





Here is what I have scheduled to report after the close (I haven't confirmed that they actually have reported):
Leadership list - CAVM down 2.5%, CLF up 1.8%
Relative strength list - CSTR up 8.7%, EXXI down 0.08%, MWW down 3.7%,
Earnings list - DECK down 7.9%, AFAM down 3.2%, CATM not trading, NANO up 1.6%, TYL not trading, ALGT down 0.4%.

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