Tuesday New Highs

There were 319 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs. Apparently the data I posted this morning was correct.

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Cigarettes	7	6	85.71
Cleaning Products	6	3	50
REIT - Residential	23	10	43.48
Jewelry Stores	5	2	40
REIT - Office	13	5	38.46
Music & Video Stores	3	1	33.33
Synthetics	13	4	30.77
Auto Parts Wholesale	4	1	25
Foreign Utilities	4	1	25
Medical Practitioners	4	1	25

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
SPB	4.02	1.78%		MDTH	10.7	-5.77%
TLVT	2.95	4.11%		ARR	3.3	-0.65%
KRO	2.87	4.91%		MAKO	3.13	-3.52%
ONTY	2.75	0.62%		CLR	2.7	-0.39%
SOLR	2.34	10.67%		RRGB	2.54	-2.45%
LULU	2.06	0.80%		GMCR	2.31	-0.21%
WTW	2.03	1.25%		KKD	2.05	-4.55%
SPPI	1.95	3.03%		PAY	1.88	-0.06%
TTWO	1.88	0.00%		PPO	1.66	-3.67%
RTI	1.83	0.77%		DSW	1.57	-2.30%
JAZZ	1.73	3.83%		SD	1.53	-1.05%
WLT	1.73	0.02%
OVTI	1.7	6.42%
NR	1.64	4.18%
VHC	1.5	8.87%

I have nothing reporting after the close. I have WPRT scheduled before the open, but that is not confirmed.

May Ends With A Bang

 We got the volume (although Friday's volume was awfully easy to beat), but the gain was low, coming in at 1%, which in the past would have been enough to trigger a follow through day. I'm not going to make a call, because IBD seems to call them when they feel like it whether it meets the standards or not, and their calls have been uncannily accurate, so give them a couple of hours. They usually post it either on the front page or in their market wrap video, neither of which require a subscription. Most significant for me we that we broke through the 1340ish area, which was looking like it was going to be resistance. It was also the midpoint between recent highs and lows, so we are now in bullish territory and poised to take a shot at another rally. Here we may run into some seasonal weakness, but that is not assured, and we can easily move up quickly from here. However, the tendency for June and July to be weak should not be ignored.
 

WTI crude oil is getting up off the floor after being tripped up a month ago. I had this in a range between 96 and 114, which seemed to work ok, but looking at it from a different angle, i put the support at 93, which was the previous resistance, and that seems to fir the chart a little better. The difference is fairly trivial, but it makes a pretty big difference when you look at where it closed today.

It doesn't make much difference where you put the pivots on gold, in any case it is in the upper half of it's range. The very small drop today is an indication that the market isn't quite buying the "all is well" bs coming out of Europe.

The Bond market is buying anyone's bs. This is now in a serious downtrend and it looks like 30 is going to be a very important pivot point.

The US Dollar index make a sharp move up after a long drop, and may have been a case of too much too soon. You would expect a 50% retracement of that move, and that is what we have. Now we have to wait and see which way it goes from here.

Today probably won't quite qualify as a follow through day, but it does appear that the Mya correction is about over. I expect to see the market mmove up from here, but whether it can get to a new high is another story.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

ECGI

I;m not sure why ECGI broke out today (or why it got high volume on Friday, for that matter), but this is a pretty bullish chart. It actually qualifies as an O'Neil high tight flag, although O'Neil wouldn't go near a low price stocks like this. Notice how it stayed in the upper half of the range between pivot points for the most part, and although CMF is negative, that can easily be skewed by low volume, and this thing trades on vapors. Price relative stayed decently high, and ATR did a dive just before the breakout. This one could easily double from here.

ELTK

The good news is ELTK had the highest relative volume on the new highs list. the bad news is average daily volume is so low that it doesn't take much to have the highest relative volume. This formed the dreaded black candle after a huge gap up, but in this case it is understandable: if I was stuck in this, I would have looked at today's gap as a gift from the stock gods.

Today's Leading Industry

These are the industries with 85% or more of their stocks advancing today.

These are the industries that have 20% or more of their stocks making new highs.

I found an error in my database so I'm not sure if the data today is accurate. I suspect the new highs data is wrong. I have cigarettes as the leading group in percentage of new highs, and that might be accurate, but I think the actual percentage may be wrong. In any case, there isn't much doubt about this being the strongest group in the market. In terms of relative strength, it can't go any higher. All are either at or very near new highs.  The moving averages are high and rising. This is a small group, but still pretty incredible.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Change	Shares Float	Insider Ownership	Insider Transactions	Institutional Ownership	Institutional Transactions	Float Short	Relative Volume
RKT	9.61%	-1.42%	-1.42%	37.58	2.99%	32.64%	79.10%	83.66%	28.09%	3.56
SOLR	15.33%	-7.02%	7.66%	125.59	0.20%	-99.19%	93.65%	-4.63%	8.16%	2.17
PPO	8.33%	-9.31%	-4.10%	45.75	6.81%	-91.78%	92.74%	-6.68%	4.93%	1.99
IMAX	13.36%	0.03%	1.01%	54.45	1.46%	-29.89%	70.11%	2.43%	6.99%	1.95
BIP	8.69%	-0.32%	0.52%	11.76	0.27%		55.12%	2.35%	0.83%	1.87
MELI	2.80%	-6.37%	-1.37%	30.39	12.19%	-8.50%	74.04%	4.81%	11.74%	1.42
CRI	7.41%	-3.71%	-0.85%	57.04	2.32%	162.73%		4.20%	8.75%	1.24
LULU	-3.77%	-13.27%	-1.00%	30.97	0.14%	-17.79%		2.05%	16.88%	1.18
CF	11.27%	-2.72%	-2.00%	71.26	0.32%	-46.67%	92.80%	-4.83%	1.94%	1.14
CROX	14.01%	-2.09%	-1.53%	81.8	0.78%	-25.79%	86.43%	0.22%	12.24%	1.01
ZAGG	22.25%	-3.39%	2.41%	15.29	18.55%	2.95%	51.48%	32.07%	57.50%	1
VECO	11.29%	0.02%	2.05%	40.31	0.85%	-2.81%		-1.07%	29.29%	0.96
HLF	21.38%	1.94%	2.40%	117.88	1.57%	5.05%	95.56%	1.68%	0.94%	0.88
KLIC	18.66%	-7.15%	1.90%	69.69	1.67%	3.44%	79.06%	9.90%	6.61%	0.87
AGP	8.31%	-1.51%	1.52%	49.35	2.06%	17.21%		0.19%	10.59%	0.84
LXU	15.10%	-3.17%	-1.84%	17.97	4.63%	-41.60%	70.75%	8.98%	3.37%	0.82
IPGP	18.91%	-2.39%	1.85%	29.56	23.80%	-53.38%	48.87%	3.87%	4.17%	0.78
NFLX	12.41%	0.65%	1.17%	50.98	0.33%	-93.71%	88.86%	-2.45%	21.09%	0.78
CMG	6.92%	-1.31%	-0.95%	30.59	1.31%	-4.68%	95.53%	2.59%	9.68%	0.75
CAVM	-1.00%	-9.17%	0.00%	46.18	2.95%	-12.82%		1.46%	14.75%	0.73
HS	7.71%	-3.75%	1.76%	64.73	4.35%	-6.95%	93.05%	17.72%	5.57%	0.62
AGNC	3.94%	-0.17%	-0.10%	128.79	0.12%	82.75%	38.24%	211.32%	5.98%	0.59
DECK	2.78%	-5.94%	-0.65%	37.39	3.63%	-5.39%	95.73%	3.52%	12.40%	0.44
QCOR	21.02%	-8.62%	0.53%	57.79	0.90%	-15.26%	100.00%	13.59%	14.03%	0.41
UFS	8.12%	-4.08%	0.12%	41	0.03%	-44.05%	89.06%	-4.22%	6.46%	0.39
FOSL	10.38%	-2.27%	-0.17%	53.17	0.26%	-35.36%	82.65%	4.33%	2.51%	0.37
BWLD	6.91%	-2.28%	0.34%	18.02	1.69%	3.34%	84.96%	2.91%	12.14%	0.36

Here is our first look at the new market leadership for this week.  RKT got hit with a downgrade this morning and is getting high volume, but has not been hit very hard.  PPO is getting hit pretty hard on volume, SOLR is making a nice move but after getting reamed last week. IMAX and BIP are also getting high relative volume but not making significant moves. These have hit new highs today: RKT, IMAX, CF, CROX, HLF, LXU, NFLX, and CMG.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are the top 4 relative volume breakouts this morning. ELTK is the only earnings breakout.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Cigarettes	7	6	85.71
Jewelry Stores	5	2	40
Cleaning Products	6	2	33.33
Music & Video Stores	3	1	33.33
REIT - Office	13	4	30.77
Synthetics	13	4	30.77
REIT - Residential	23	7	30.43
Auto Parts Wholesale	4	1	25
Foreign Utilities	4	1	25
Medical Practitioners	4	1	25
REIT - Industrial	17	4	23.53
REIT - Retail	41	9	21.95
Drug Related Products	14	3	21.43
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Dairy Products	5	1	20
Railroads	15	3	20
Agricultural Chemicals	18	3	16.67
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	6	1	16.67
Drugs - Generic	12	2	16.67
Drugs Wholesale	6	1	16.67
Photographic Equipment & Supplies	6	1	16.67
Diagnostic Substances	25	4	16
Entertainment - Diversified	13	2	15.38

Here are the early leading industries in percentage of stocks making new highs. Cigarettes is a group we have been watching carefully for a few weeks now, and has an unbelievable 6 of 7 stocks hitting new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1344.18	R2	1339.56	R4	1336.01	High	1335.57
R2	1339.4	R1	1335.57	R3	1333.56	Low	1326.64
R1	1335.25	P	1330.63	R2	1332.74
P	1330.47	S1	1326.64	R1	1331.92
S1	1326.32	S2	1321.7	S1	1330.28
S2	1321.54			S2	1329.46
S3	1317.39			S3	1328.64
				S4	1326.19

Tuesday Morning Update

Last night the futures ramped on news of yet another Greek bailout (or more accurately, German banks that were dumb enough to buy Greek debt), and it is starting to look like this is a "sell the news" event, as plenty of dumb money came into the open to give the big money boys strength to sell into. The high last week was 1346, and unless we can break through that, the likelyhood is that the market will come back down, and should test the midpoint around 1338. that should be the critical point to watch, and if the market can stay above it, then it is in pretty good shape. If not, we may end up giving back the morning's gain, and then some.
The leading sector, by a pretty wide margin, is XLE. XLB is up the least, but there are about 4 other sectors just barely ahead of it. The Nasdaq is about even, the Russell 2000 trailing a bit. Oil and gold are up, treasury yields down. For some reason, the dollar is plumeting against the yen.

I have 244 new highs this morning, with breakouts in ELTK, ZLC, ASH, SPTN, and MDCO. None of the stocks I had scheduled have reported, but I did notice CAAS getting a delisting notice from the Nasdaq, so that one will be off the list on the next update. 

Bank Body Count

In a surprise move, the FDIC has acted on a holiday weekend to shut down a bank. It was:

- First Heritage Bank, Washington - estimated cost to FDIC $34.9 million

That brings the 2011 bank body count to 44.

Earnings Schedule This Week

Here is what I have so far for this week's earnings schedules. Monday's schedule is not likely correct, but I cannot find actual dates for those stocks. If I can correct it tomorrow, I will post an update.

Earnings Growth Charts

I have one stock from the earnings list reporting this week, but also discovered 6 that reported earlier this month I missed. I picked the 5 graphs most of interest. In the top panel the red line is quarterly EPS growth rate, black is quarterly revenue growth rate. In the middle, the red line is quarterly EPS, black is price, blu preice relative to SPX, and green quarterly revenue. If the stock is reporting the end of a fiscal year, the large red bars are annual EPS. At the bottom the black bars are volume.

AIRM was one of the stocks to report triple digit earnings growth this quarter, but that is coming off a big drop in EPS a year ago, so it's not that impressive.  Earnings are in a slow long term up trend, but price has recently taken off, so the market seems to be anticipating continued growth. Revenue has been pretty consistent, so the market might be right. 

CACC has for a couple years now been one of those stocks that shows up every week on the IBD 100 (now the IBD 50) that, when you first see it, you wonder how the hell it got there. It is a slow mover, gets vapors for volume, and is a financial stock on top of all that. One look at this graph and it's pretty obvious: relentless earnings and revenue growth, and while price doesn't move that fast, it has been consistently moving up. This is another reason why I quit arguing with IBD.

CRVL was the stock reporting this week, and also the only one reporting the end of a fiscal year. Annual EPS dropped a bit this year, a cause for concern but not panic. Quarterly EPS, though, went right down the drain this quarter, which is a cause for panic. This did take a hit on the report, but no signs of panic yet.

This is GPIC, which has been on the list for quite some time but I apparently haven't been paying much attention to it. It does look like there is some problems in the graph, but I didn't see anything obvious. Earnings and revenue are both going nowhere, as is price. The update is coming in another month, so I will have this one straightened out before then, and if nothing changes, it looks like a good candidate for removal.

MFW was a recent addition to the list, and a good example of why I am going to have to graph candidates before putting them on. I think is was the high burst of growth last quarter that got my attention, and according to Finviz, it's 5 year EPS growth rate is 39%. It looks to me that the bulk of that growth came a couple of years agoa, because it doesn't look like it has done much since. On the plus side, price is so far off it's high that it won't take much growth here to get a pretty good gain.

New Leadership Scan

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
NFLX	100	0.36	0.89	0.12	0.38	90.58	0.26
ZAGG	94.43	0.95	0.45	0.2	0.36	77.47	0.16
KLIC	87.77	0.3	0.53	0.17	0.45	41.59	0.28
CF	98.04	0.39	0.21	0.14	0.25	31.45	0.11
SOLR	89.26	0.78	1.1	0.07	0.22	31.37	0.15
DECK	88.61	0.38	0.27	0.04	0.27	30.97	0.23
HLF	100	0.29	0.69	0.19	0.52	30.93	0.33
LULU	85.17	1.41	0.39	-0.03	0.36	30.4	0.39
VECO	95.82	0.68	0.47	0.09	0.25	30.01	0.16
CROX	95	0.25	0.24	0.17	0.38	28.36	0.21
UFS	93.3	0.55	0.23	0.08	0.26	27.54	0.18
CMG	100	0.32	0.23	0.08	0.29	26.69	0.21
PPO	95.03	0.36	0.2	0.13	0.53	24.21	0.4
RKT	100	0.64	0.22	0.12	0.3	21.63	0.18
LXU	100	0.43	0.26	0.18	0.7	21.4	0.52
CAVM	85.85	0.63	0.19	-0.01	0.18	21.12	0.19
MELI	88.56	1.31	0.39	0.05	0.22	19.44	0.17
BIP	98.36	0.54	0.18	0.08	0.2	18.46	0.12
IPGP	100	0.57	0.24	0.18	0.88	18.18	0.7
QCOR	98.18	0.42	0.37	0.22	0.59	17.87	0.37
FOSL	97.66	0.29	0.27	0.11	0.46	16.08	0.35
AGNC	91.18	0.48	0.19	0.04	0.12	15.65	0.08
IMAX	96.81	0.63	0.62	0.13	0.47	15.57	0.34
AGP	98.15	0.4	0.27	0.07	0.38	15.27	0.31
BWLD	93.82	0.33	0.17	0.07	0.24	14.62	0.17
CRI	92.38	0.27	0.2	0.09	0.14	14.41	0.05
HS	93.79	0.7	0.17	0.06	0.37	14.24	0.31

This week's leadership scan gives us 27 stocks, a slight drop from last week and a bit of a surprise. That is still a higher than normal number, and indicates how well the leaders have held up during this correction. As usual, i will be tracking these stocks over the course of the week.