Thursday New Highs

There were 213 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Jewelry Stores	5	3	60
Railroads	15	4	26.67
CATV Systems	19	5	26.32
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Drug Stores	9	2	22.22
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	29	6	20.69
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Electronics Stores	5	1	20
Resorts & Casinos	15	3	20

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
HOC	6.26	1.79%		CF	2.66	-5.14%
FRC	3.4	2.67%		ZAGG	2.08	-2.55%
CBOU	2.51	2.16%		ARIA	1.86	-4.47%
KRO	1.98	6.50%		BIP	1.56	-0.48%

There is nothing to report on the earnings front.

Quarter 2 Goes Out With A Bang

Quarter 2 has come to an end, and it went out with a bang, tacking on another 13 points today in an already impressive, if low volume, rally. We are arguably wither up against or just abve the descending trend line, above the 50dma (both simple and exponential), with rising MACD and stochastics, but with a 3 day weekend coming and "window dressing" over with, nothing to fuel a further move up. Of course, the computers don;t take a day off, so they will determine the market's direction tomorrow, and they are neither bullish nor bearish, just ready to scalp anything that moves. However, the momentum is up, so any pullback we get here should be minor.

The Nasdaq 100 is not only closer to the top end target i have for it, it is getting more overbought than the SPX and is showing some signs of slowing down. The MACD histogran is at an extreme high level, which in the last few months has been the point at which it reverses. , so again, here we should be prepared for a possible pullback. Whether we test the top of the range first or not I don't know, but if we do gap up tomorrow I expect a quick reversal.

The Russell 2000 is definitely showing signs of topping out here, which, again, can mean anything from a short poullbackm to an apocalyptic collapse. If tomorrow's MACD histogram is lower than today, than it's a very good bet that we have, at least for now, topped out. 

The percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq is in the "transition zone" after spending a couple of weeks below 30, a sign that this was a more severe correction than we have soon in the last couple of years. It is rising, but still well below 50, the point at which it becomes a bullish sign. Unfortunately, the momentum indicators are saying upward monentum is topping out, so we may be due for a retreat here. If it does get above 50, and stays there for more than a couple of days, we are probably in for an early summer rally. I do expect a short pullback first, but we might not get it.

Here the NYSE looks a but weaker, but the momentum indicators do not have the "toppy" look that the Nasdaq does. We might see some of the more defensive issues here start getting a bid if the market rolls over into a pullback, but for now we can only wait, and probably won;t get any answers tomorrow.

I expect very light volume tomorrow, which means either that we could see a whole lot of nothing going on, or some really strange stuff going on (like crap stocks going up 100% on no news). I will be in the road in the morning and will not be able to post until later in the day. In the next couple of weeks I will be taking some vacation time (including one whole day, something I haven't done in at least a couple of years), so posting will be lighter than usual.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

WOR

At this time of the quarter we don;t get many earnings breakouts, so at times like this even mediocre ones stand out. WOR took a very big dip in the month before the breakout, something o;Neil doesn't like to see. It also had a very big rise just before the breakout, something the SEC can't seem to see.

NTIC

Aside from being traded by appointment only, NTIC has a very nice looking chart. the price relativ line is not much to brag about, but it did remain pretty high, and this has done a reasonably good job of staying above the 50dma. But, with a day of 24k shares traded is a "surge", this just isn't ready for prime time yet.

Today's Leading Industry

here are the industries with 80% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 20% or more of their stocks making new highs.

We ahve reached the point in this latest up move where the new highs list is giving us more information about group strength than the stocks advancing. One of the groups with a high percentage of stocks making new highs is specialty eateries, which unfortunately is only 4 stocks, so the data is not terribly informative. One of the problems here is this is not a well designed industry (these could easily go into the restaurants group, and several of those could go into this group). If you look at the individual charts in the group, 3 of the 4 are quite strong at the moment, but in percentage terms that is only 75%, and if the 4th were to move into the relative strength range, that would be a 25% gain, which is highly deceptive. That is the chief drawback to trying to judge group strength, and there really isn;t an easy way around it.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
EGHT	44.98%	4.13%	71.42	9.52%	6.41%	2.92%	3.24
CF	0.73%	-9.17%	49.35	-3.65%	-0.46%	-3.21%	3.06
ZAGG	26.68%	-16.34%	59.24	-3.56%	-5.96%	2.55%	2.51
LXU	-1.37%	-13.72%	49.44	-5.64%	-5.98%	0.36%	1.74
SOLR	33.08%	-0.98%	72.39	2.54%	0.56%	1.97%	1.17
BIP	4.28%	-1.72%	60.41	-0.16%	-0.67%	0.52%	1.16
LULU	17.36%	-1.43%	72.48	0.80%	2.30%	-1.47%	0.99
CROX	15.18%	-2.19%	69.91	-0.70%	-1.24%	0.55%	0.88
ULTA	16.60%	-0.80%	69.34	1.61%	1.13%	0.47%	0.8
BWLD	8.86%	-1.35%	69.63	0.70%	0.21%	0.49%	0.57
NFLX	4.51%	-6.00%	56.26	-1.47%	-1.35%	-0.12%	0.57
CMG	9.86%	-0.94%	73.02	0.51%	0.25%	0.26%	0.48
VHC	12.94%	-5.87%	60.33	-2.18%	-1.51%	-0.68%	0.41
CRI	2.93%	-5.84%	57.02	1.24%	0.81%	0.43%	0.23

We seem to have a bit of a divergence in the leadership today. The market is up big, but most of the high volume leaders are down big. EGHT is the exception, and is in the process of going parabolic. Only 3 have hit new highs: EHGT, SOLR, and ULTA.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. LBIX and WOR are on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Jewelry Stores	5	2	40
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
CATV Systems	19	4	21.05
Electronics Stores	5	1	20
Railroads	15	3	20
Industrial Equipment Wholesale	11	2	18.18
Health Care Plans	17	3	17.65
Aluminum	6	1	16.67
Beverages - Soft Drinks	18	3	16.67
Beverages - Wineries & Distillers	6	1	16.67
Cleaning Products	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Information & Delivery Services	13	2	15.38
Synthetics	13	2	15.38
Credit Services	33	5	15.15
Diversified Computer Systems	7	1	14.29
Diversified Utilities	25	3	12
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	42	5	11.9
Appliances	9	1	11.11
Drug Stores	9	1	11.11
Small Tools & Accessories	9	1	11.11
Food - Major Diversified	10	1	10
Packaging & Containers	20	2	10
Processed & Packaged Goods	40	4	10
Security Software & Services	10	1	10

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1324.49	R2	1317.58	R4	1314.21	High	1308.31
R2	1316.85	R1	1313.59	R3	1310.81	Low	1295.95
R1	1312.13	P	1305.22	R2	1309.68
P	1304.49	S1	1301.23	R1	1308.54
S1	1299.77	S2	1292.86	S1	1306.28
S2	1292.13			S2	1305.14
S3	1287.41			S3	1304.01
				S4	1300.61

Thursday Morning Update

The long march up continues, but today is the last day of the quarter, so it might also be the last day of the march. It is hard to pick out pivot points when price is going straight up, but judging by the last area of minor resistance at 1309, the next should come around 1319, which as of this writing we are only a couple of points away from. This morning's leading sectors are XLI and XLE, lagging are XLF and XLU. The Nasdaq has a slight lead, the Russell 2000 is about even. Oil is up, gold down, treasury yields up pretty big (we had another bad auction yesterday, the 7 year).

I have 111 new highs so far, with breakouts in WOR, BTH, CACC, SIAL, and ONVI. I have nothing going on on the earnings front.

Wednesday New Highs

There were 178 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Medical Practitioners	3	1	33.33
Auto Dealerships	12	3	25
Specialty Eateries	4	1	25
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Electronics Stores	5	1	20
Jewelry Stores	5	1	20
Health Care Plans	17	3	17.65
Aluminum	6	1	16.67
Cleaning Products	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
CRZO	2.59	6.61%		GLUU	1.6	-1.35%
MPEL	1.58	5.67%		ONTY	1.53	-1.38%
ARIA	1.78	5.42%		SOLR	1.6	-2.20%
SGY	1.52	4.91%		LEAP	1.6	-2.72%
HOC	1.81	2.90%		ZAGG	4.23	-3.45%
PPO	1.53	2.39%		CBOU	2.47	-4.71%

I have BRID from the earnings list scheduled to report some time today. that is one hard stocks to get information on, as far as i can tell they have not reported, but they are up about 30% in the past week, so something is going on there.

Roits in Greece: Time For A Rally

 A nice little gain today (nt big enough for a follow through day, but we did get higher volume) pushed us past the 50dema, but the simple average is looming just above, 1316 to be exact. This morning almost looked like a bull trap, as the gain at the open was quickly reversed and it looked like we were going negative, but half an hour into the session  there was another sharp reversal and it was up the rest of the day.  if the pivot points I have are correct, it sure looks probable to me that we will go up to about 1340, and seasonally, we typically have weak rallies in July, so unless something drastic happens, that is the scenario I am looking at now. Of note here is the false sell signal on the Elder impulse chart, something we see during up trends.

 

The Nasdaq dragged today, but managed to break the 50dema, which here did appear to be putting up some resistance.  It looks like the probable target here is just below 2800.

 One reason I like to follow the Russell 2000 so closely is that the chart always seems to fit the pivot points. Why that is I have no idea, but i suspect a lot of the big money boys (and computers) follow this chart retty closely as wel, while the retail investor probably for the most part ignores it. Notice the Elder impulse system has had green bars for the last 7 trading days, without even a whiff of a sell signal. This had a weak day today, but overall, is quite strong, which leads me to believe we have more upside to go here.

Ticker	Relative Strength Index (14)
XLU	59.24
XLY	59.22
XLB	57.47
XLV	54.85
XLI	54.43
XLF	53.55
XLK	52.87
XLE	51.93
XLP	47.84

Here are the current sector rankings by RSI. XLP was among the leaders a few weeks ago, but has plummeted to last place. XLF has been in last place forever, but has now moved into the middle of the pack.

XLU is still the leading sector, and has barely been hit during the correction, which is what you would expect as it is a defensive sector. If the market rallies for a couple of weeks or so, this should drop down to the middle of the pack, although price wise it will be rising.

XLP is barely budging now, despite pretty decent volume. This is another defensive sector, and the fact that it is bareky movng is probably a sign of rotation into something that will move up fastr in a market rally (such as XLF).

It is entirely possible we will get a short rally without a follow through day, and in fact without one it will be short. July is notorious for the ":summer rally" and also for few and weak follow through days, so i would not be surprised if we move up for the next couple of weeks, but at this point I don;t see us getting above 1340 on the SPX. For that, we will probably have to wait until September. that is, if the market doesn't collapse in September.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

CRZO

CRZO has been in a very wide base for the last 6 months, and got a breakout today on decent volume. Most notable here is the fact that it did not get hit very hard when the SPR release was announced (this is an oil company) as most of the rest of the energy sector did, and since then has moved up pretty sharply with the rebound in oil. It seems no one is in a hurry to take profits here.

HOC

HOC did get hit on the SPR release, but immediately came back and nearly broke out today. This has been getting an awful lot of volume of late, and even with the high volume sell off of a few days ago, CMF is still positive and rising.

MA

Unless you were watching MA and V, and also had your eyes glued to the streaming headlines (which come about 2 or 3 per second, so don't blink), you probably didn't notice these until it was way extended. Of the two, MA is the stronger one, and has a very good chart even without today's move, but this now puts it in an entirely new trading range.

No Leading Industry Today

I have the spreadsheet operational now, but the original problem that I was trying to fix before blowing it up is still there: Spreasheets are taking abut 10 times longer than normal to open, which means that when I am pressed for time, there is absolutely no margin for error. I tried to get the industry data, and after 45 minutes of fighting with it I discovered an error, which would have required probably another 45 minutes to fix, so I am throwing in the towel for today. Hopefully I can get the new highs data after the close. The root problem appears to be in windows Vista, which does an atrocious job of handling memory.

Market Leadership

Ticker	50-Day Simple Moving Average	52-Week High	Relative Strength Index (14)	Change	Change from Open	Gap	Relative Volume
ZAGG	45.81%	-4.73%	72.89	5.89%	5.01%	0.84%	4.02
SOLR	32.51%	-1.36%	72.05	-1.18%	-2.39%	1.24%	1.54
EGHT	34.22%	-3.04%	66.32	-2.40%	-3.04%	0.66%	1.53
CF	5.21%	-5.35%	54.92	2.03%	0.86%	1.16%	1.04
LULU	17.69%	-0.85%	72.73	-0.50%	-1.40%	0.92%	0.95
ULTA	16.41%	-1.37%	69.46	-0.36%	-0.14%	-0.22%	0.81
BIP	3.86%	-2.31%	58.78	1.05%	0.24%	0.81%	0.7
VHC	17.99%	-2.23%	65.66	0.54%	-1.58%	2.16%	0.69
NFLX	6.95%	-4.05%	61.09	0.51%	-0.20%	0.72%	0.66
CROX	18.36%	0.19%	74.9	0.58%	-0.04%	0.62%	0.63
CMG	10.54%	0.70%	72.68	0.89%	0.31%	0.58%	0.59
LXU	4.51%	-8.90%	56.17	3.03%	2.68%	0.34%	0.55
BWLD	9.22%	-1.09%	70.44	-0.69%	-1.19%	0.51%	0.5
CRI	2.28%	-6.48%	55.11	0.29%	0.13%	0.16%	0.33

I'm having a computer from hell day today, but am slowly getting things under control.  Here is the leadershp list for today, but this data is at least a half hour old. The usual suspects are getting high volume: ZAGG, EGHT, and SOLR. The new highs: SOLR, EGHT, LULU, CROX, CMG, and BWLD. There are no significant down moves on the list.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. HIHO is the only earnings breakout. My spreadsheet program is irretrievably screwed up and it will probably take a lot of time to get it back up, so there probably won't be an industry leaders post this morning. 

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1318.83	R2	1309.18	R4	1305.79	High	1296.74
R2	1307.82	R1	1304.97	R3	1301.23	Low	1280.15
R1	1302.24	P	1292.59	R2	1299.71
P	1291.23	S1	1288.38	R1	1298.19
S1	1285.65	S2	1276	S1	1295.15
S2	1274.64			S2	1293.63
S3	1269.06			S3	1292.11
				S4	1287.55

Wednesday Morning Update

First thing this morning we broke out and got back into the 1300s, but so far it is starting to look like a bull trap, as the market is currently pulling back . 1298 is going to be the key to today, but we really won;t know the complexion of the market until we see where it closes. Tomorrow is the last day of the quarter, and coupling that with an upcoming holiday weekend, we may see all kinds of strange stuff. The leading sectors this morning are XLF and XLB, the laggards are XLK and XLI. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are bith lagging by pretty good margins. Oil and gold are both up, treasury yields mixed, the 10 year up and 30 year down.

I have 107 new highs so far, with breakouts in HIHO, LAVA, GIB, ROSE, and WAC. SNX from the earnings list is down 3.3% after reporting last night.

Tuesday New Highs

There were 166 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Specialty Eateries	4	2	50
Medical Practitioners	3	1	33.33
Auto Dealerships	12	3	25
Discount, Variety Stores	13	3	23.08
Beverages - Brewers	9	2	22.22
Auto Parts Stores	5	1	20
Jewelry Stores	5	1	20
Restaurants	53	9	16.98
Aluminum	6	1	16.67
Home Furnishing Stores	6	1	16.67
Processing Systems & Products	6	1	16.67

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
ACHN	2.64	5.48%		FRC	4.65	-4.58%
ONTY	2.27	2.61%		CBOU	3.94	-1.81%
HOC	2.15	6.87%		PCYC	1.78	-4.61%
ORS	1.99	20.47%
GLUU	1.89	15.62%
IPSU	1.8	4.37%
ARIA	1.69	2.74%
AVAV	1.62	3.02%
KRO	1.55	2.59%
JVA	1.53	3.38%
SWI	1.53	2.07%

After the clsoe i have SNX reporting, and it is down 1.4% after hours. That should be the last report on the earnings list for this quarter.