Bank Body Count

There are 3 more banks down this week:

- Integra Bank, Indiana - estimated loss to FDIC $170.7 million (in addition to $83.7 million in TARP funds, which, as they say, have not been repaid).
- Virginia Business Bank, Virginia - estimated loss to FDIC $17.3 million
- BankMeridian, South Carolina - estimated loss to FDIC $65.4 million


That brings the 2011 bank body count to 61.

Earnings Schedule This Week

Here is what i have for this week's earnings schedule. It will be a very busy week and I will probably have one or two revisions during the week.

Earnings Growth Charts

There were 19 stocks on the earnings list reporting last week, and I haven't been able to graph them all yet, but here are the six most of interest that I have so far. In the top panel the black line is quarterly revenue growth rate, red is quarterly EPS growth rate. In the middle, red is quarterly EPS, black price, green quarterly revenue, and blue is price relative to SPX. At the bottom the black bars are volume. None reported the end of a fiscal year, so I did not include annual EPS.

BWLD is one I have been following pretty closely for about a year now, When I put it on the list, it had growing earnings but shrinking revenue, which was about the time it built the last big base. Revenue growth reversed and it broke out of the base and became a market leader. Now revenue growth is still high, but EPS growth has slowed. Price seems to be following revenue closer than it is earnings, but this looks like it is way extended here and may be just about due for another base. 

CPLA is one of the for profit education stocks that got crushed due to a Dept. of Education probe into them. That investigation has ended favorably for the schools, but this one has failed to bounce back. It did report accelerating growth this quarter, but the recent trend is slowing EPS and revenue, but there must be something else going on here, because price just refuses to come back.

DECK actually reported a loss this quarter, but revenues are about where they were expected to be, so this was probably an anomaly. This is overdue for another base, and looks like it might be ready to start one here.

The last time I looked at RGR, it was slowing drastically in both EPS and revenue, and I thought it might not be long for the earnings list, but since then has sharply increased both, and price has followed. The only problem now is it';s not getting the volume to be a leader, but that can change quickly.

RNOW is also a potential leader, but has been slowing in EPS growth lately. Revenue growth is still high, but it looks like the market is being a little cautious here as this is pulling back a bit. It may be a long base getting ready to form, or just a short term pullback before another leg up, it is just too early to tell.

I have very little revenue data for SCL, so the revenue lines here are not valid. EPS growth has been pretty flat for a couple of years now, and this has not been outperforming the market for the last year. It did, howver, hit a new high last week, so the market seems to like this one.

I have not yet finished the earnings spreadsheet update, but it should be completed some time this morning.

New Leadership Scan

Ticker	Price as a % of 52 Wk H-L Range	EPS growth past 5 years	Return on Equity	50-Day Simple Moving Average	200-Day Simple Moving Average	20 day v/ms	X
ZAGG	93.13	0.95	0.5	0.21	0.64	175.46	0.43
CYOU	100	0.25	0.51	0.24	0.45	31.07	0.21
BIDU	93.14	1.33	0.56	0.15	0.27	30.45	0.12
CROX	100	0.25	0.24	0.28	0.63	29.94	0.35
CF	97.22	0.39	0.21	0.04	0.15	27.75	0.11
CMG	94.11	0.32	0.23	0.08	0.26	27.36	0.18
GPOR	89.23	0.26	0.26	0.25	0.42	25.62	0.17
LULU	95.65	1.41	0.38	0.15	0.51	24.35	0.36
QCOR	93.89	0.42	0.37	0.26	0.78	22.44	0.52
DECK	92.27	0.38	0.27	0.13	0.22	20.65	0.09
AAPL	92.91	0.58	0.42	0.12	0.16	19.42	0.04
DGSE	84.05	0.36	0.39	0.26	0.7	16.16	0.44
RNOW	84.63	0.29	0.43	0.09	0.18	16.05	0.09
CLH	87.18	0.27	0.19	0.03	0.16	15.16	0.13
BIP	94.02	0.54	0.23	0.01	0.12	15.1	0.11
HANS	84.97	0.29	0.31	0.01	0.26	14.13	0.25

This week only 16 stocks made the leadership list. There are a couple of notable newcomers (DGSE and CLH) and a notable miss (NFLX, which missed the first column criteria by about half a percent). I will be tracking these over the course of the week.

Earnings Summary

There were 19 stocks from the earnings list reporting this week:

Reporting a quarter of accelerating earnings growth - CPLA, SCL, RNOW, RGR

Reporting a quarter of decelerating growth - ININ, BWLD, TYL, AXTI, IVC, CKSW, VECO, SYNA, AFSI

Reporting a quarter of negative growth - VLTR, LL, DEST, ISSI, DDIC, DECK

None reported triple digit growth. The relative strength and industry spreadsheets are updated. The earnings spreadsheet will probably not be done until early tomorrow.

Relative Strength By Industry

Here are the top 30 industries ranked by percentage of stocks in the relative strength range. The top 10 industries in each category are highlighted, and special attention should be paid to those groups that have 4 or more categories highlighted.

Here are the top 20 industries in percentage of stocks advancing this week. I was hoping we would see some correlation between that and the pecent change categories (here, columns 3, 6, and 8), but I don't see any.

Relative Strength Scans

Here are the results of this week's relative strength scan. There are about 1100 stocks in the top 25% of their 52 week price ranges, a big drop from last week, and we also have high turnover on this week's list, so it does appear the market is going through a pretty substantial correction. From left to right, the first 3 columns are the stocks from last week retained on this week's list, the next 2 columns are the new stocks this week, and the last 2 are the stocks dropping off this week.

The spreadsheet will be uploaded later today.

Retained			New		Off
ACN	EXPE	SODA	AAPL	PCYC	ALJ	NANO
AGP	FMCN	SPPI	ACOM	PDLI	ANN	NLC
AH	FTK	TNAV	ADS	PTEN	AREX	NWBI
ANF	GLUU	TSO	AG	PVH	ATI	OCZ
APOL	GPOR	UA	ATHN	QCOR	BEXP	ONTY
ARIA	IDCC	VMW	BBG	RRC	CAKE	OVTI
BAS	KOG	WLT	BTH	SCSS	CCIX	PCX
BIDU	KRO	WNR	CLMT	TAOM	CLF	RPTP
BIRT	LNG	WPRT	COG	TIBX	CLUB	SIX
BWLD	LULU	WTI	CVV	TPX	EGHT	SOLR
CBOU	LVS	WYNN	CY	WTW	ESI	SPWRA
CF	MGM	ZAGG	DTLK	YNDX	EXK	VHC
CLX	MMR	ZLC	ERTS		GDP
CMG	MPEL		FIO		GENE
CPX	MRX		GMCR		GORO
CRK	MSTR		HLX		GT
CROX	NEN		HOS		HITK
CRR	NFLX		IPSU		JCS
CRZO	PDC		KEG		KCI
CVI	PII		KFFG		KKD
CYOU	RES		LNKD		LINC
DBLE	ROSE		MCP		MDTH
DDS	SD		MITK		MHR
DECK	SGY		N		MILL
DSW	SINO		NCR		MIND

Leader Charts

 It was another tough week on the leadership list, with only 6 stocks advancing this week, but we did have 3 gain over 10%, thanks to earnings reports. QCOR was the biggest gainer at almot 14%, but it all came on the gap up on earnings, so if you waited until after it reported to bu, you missed most of that gain. Last Friday (blue arrow) it was in a bullish consolidation, but again, you really don't want to buy right before it reports. This has a history of making pretty big one day moves, then going nowhere for a few weeks, then doing it again, and so far, it is following that pattern.

 

CYOU was the second biggest gainer. It broke out of a bullish cup and handle on Monday, and has been moving up since, although on lower volume. It has bucked the market trend as evidenced buy the price relative line. The only problem here is that is is getting a little extended and might pull in to give another buy point. Of course, it doesn't have to, but I wouldn't try to chase it.

AGP was the biggest decliner, and had an apocalyptic drop on earnings yesterday. This on is don fo probably a long time as a leader, but still presents some trading possibilities for the more risk loving traders. I noticed, after drawing the 2 pivot points I have here, that yesterday's low looked like it was equal distance away, and after putting up the fibonacci grid, it was exactly in the right spot. Had you been watching this, and new where that point was, you could have put in a limit order and waited to see if it hit it. In this case, you would have had one hell of a nice day trade.
 

VHC was the second biggest decliner, and in keeping with tradition, may be the most bullish chart of the bunch. It just pulled back to nearly exactly the 50dma and is now sitting above it. the drop from the high to here was pretty large, but when it was at the high it was more than double the 200dma, so it was due for a pullback. I have August 10 for an earnings date here, so it's probably safe for a short term trade. The only real problem here is that there 3 relatively high volume down days in the last couple of weeks, and a high ATR line, indicating high volatility.

Friday New Highs

There were 38 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Healthcare Information Services	11	2	18.18
Computer Based Systems	7	1	14.29
Medical Equipment Wholesale	7	1	14.29
Textile - Apparel Clothing	28	4	14.29
Internet Service Providers	8	1	12.5
Home Health Care	11	1	9.09
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	22	2	9.09
Consumer Services	12	1	8.33
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	42	3	7.14
Catalog & Mail Order Houses	16	1	6.25
Lodging	16	1	6.25

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
EXPE	3.1	9.31%		MILL	25.01	-18.33%
DECK	2.82	7.18%		TNAV	6.66	-44.22%
GPOR	2.71	6.61%		AGP	6.63	-18.41%
IDCC	2.03	0.74%		NANO	2.79	-1.75%
				MIND	2.19	-5.71%
				SINO	2.05	-5.48%
				CRR	1.72	-3.19%
				PDC	1.61	-1.75%
				OCZ	1.54	-6.59%

i will have a complete earnings summary this weekend.

Friday Weekly Charts

1295 hs been a pretty important point for most of the last 6 months, and today it was breached again, but this time the 200dma was right below it, and not surprisingly, it held. It almost looked like we aere going to get back above 1295, but it wasn't to be, so no key reversal today. Now we are looking at possible support at the 200dma, and we are in a zone where so pretty big buying has come in. If it doesn't, and if this keeps happening someday it won't, it is bear markets-ville.

The weekly chart has us sitting right on the 40 week average. We are now in the lower half of the trading range that we have been in practically this whole year, and with sharp moves both up and down, that is usually an indication of a trend change coming. Stochastics and MACD both indicate a weakening market, and the pattern sure looks like a top in progress. We won;t know that until we finally break that lower pivot point at 1250, and we are a ways from doing that.

Other than being on the top half of the range (and thus being a little stronger), the Nasdaq looks about the same. It is in the process of forming a head and shoulders top that is clearly visible on the weekly chart, but the last one it formed failed, so I;m not counting on this one succeeding.

Despite how it looks on the chart, the Dow industrials are actually just above the 40 week average, but other than that, this looks about the same.

Even the transports are playing along: this weeks close is 2 points above the 40 week average. This had a [retty tough week, and the volume didn't help it any. This could be the first one to go.

Despite horrible wekness recently, the Russell 2000 is still holding the 40 week line, but this is also very close to hitting critical support. The next level below that looks to be around 680, a long way down from here.

The market has, for the third time this year, gone into the lower half of the range it has been in since late last year. The first two times the result was dip buying, resulting in sharp, but rather disappointing rallies. Depending on what comes out of D.C this weekend, we could see another one, but we could also see an epic collapse in U.S. debt is downgraded.

I will have the new highs update shortly.

TRLG

Despite a low number of new highs, there were lots of earnings breakouts today, and TRLG might be the best of the bunch. This gapped up to just above the breakout point and did not sell off late, closing near the high of the day. The base here is not terribly well shaped, but the price relative line shows it has a lot of strength.

ZOLL

Another of the earnings breakouts to get very high relative volume, ZOLL gapped up in late April, and that gap established the new trading range, which this pretty much stayed in since. Normally when a stock trades sideways for a long time after a gap, it is a sign that no one is in a hurry to take profits. This shows no signs o accumulation during the base, although CMF did have a pretty good rise right before the breakout. We will have to waut and see if history repeats here.

STMP

STMP broke out of a very long base that was pretty unremarkable until about a month or so, when it formed the right side and then a very bullish handle. The price relative hit a new high one day before the breakout, a sign of high strength, and had you been watching this you might have been able to predict today's move/

This Week's Industry Performance

Here are the top 30 industries in percentage of stocks advancing for the last 5 trading days, not including today.  I will be re-running this scan this weekend with the new relative strength data, with the small number of stocks advancing this week, we may see a correlation between this and an increase in relative strength.

Market Leader Performance

Ticker	Performance (Week)	Relative Volume	Change
QCOR	17.29%	1.25	-0.48%
CROX	14.86%	1.24	1.91%
CYOU	13.98%	1.12	1.54%
BIDU	5.44%	1.23	-0.86%
AAPL	1.17%	1.5	0.30%
MA	-1.17%	0.72	-0.76%
CMG	-1.24%	0.91	0.75%
CF	-1.46%	0.76	-1.88%
BIP	-1.59%	0.52	-0.87%
LULU	-2.11%	0.64	-0.94%
GPOR	-2.70%	2.43	6.90%
ZAGG	-2.83%	0.31	1.14%
PPO	-3.02%	0.72	1.39%
NFLX	-3.33%	0.72	-0.34%
DECK	-4.09%	2.89	6.24%
PSMT	-4.38%	0.5	1.99%
ULTA	-4.47%	0.73	0.86%
FOSL	-4.74%	1.4	-0.11%
HANS	-5.51%	0.74	-0.52%
BWLD	-5.95%	1.1	-0.86%
IOSP	-6.48%	0.76	-0.50%
JOYG	-6.63%	0.89	0.78%
HITK	-7.36%	0.59	-0.51%
AGP	-8.15%	7.02	-19.89%
CLF	-10.82%	0.97	0.84%
VHC	-16.91%	0.88	2.68%

Here is the performance for the last 5 trading days (not including today) for the leadership list, not including today, along with today's relative volume and change. Looks like it has been a bad week.

Breakouts

Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. All are on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

Name	Stocks	NH	Pct
Healthcare Information Services	11	2	18.18
Home Health Care	11	1	9.09
Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	22	2	9.09
Catalog & Mail Order Houses	16	1	6.25
Lodging	16	1	6.25
Textile - Apparel Clothing	28	1	3.57
Regional - Southwest Banks	29	1	3.45
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	31	1	3.23
Medical Appliances & Equipment	80	2	2.5
Gold	49	1	2.04
Diversified Machinery	57	1	1.75
Property & Casualty Insurance	77	1	1.3
Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration	78	1	1.28
Biotechnology	162	2	1.23
Savings & Loans	112	1	0.89

Once again we have very few new highs. Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Today's Pivot Points

Floor		Woodie's		Camarilla		Demark
R3	1328.77	R2	1321.37	R4	1310.11	High	1317.08
R2	1322.54	R1	1309.25	R3	1305.39	Low	1299.92
R1	1311.61	P	1304.21	R2	1303.82
P	1305.38	S1	1292.09	R1	1302.24
S1	1294.45	S2	1287.05	S1	1299.1
S2	1288.22			S2	1297.52
S3	1277.29			S3	1295.95
				S4	1291.23

Friday Morning Update

It is now becoming apparent that the game of chicken in Washington is going to result in a downgrade of U.S. debt, something I can probably live with but is having catastrophic effects on the market. 1295 was broken this morning with a thunderous crash, and where we will fin support now is anyone's guess: mine is 1274. This morning the leading sectors are XLP and XLF, lagging are XLE and XLB. The Nasdaq is lagging slightly but the Russell 2000 is really getting creamed. Oil is down, gold up, and treasury yields are actually down big, something I would net expect to see in the event of a downgrade. The bond market might be sniffing out something here I am not seeing.

I have 15 new highs so far, with breakouts in ZOLL, TRLG, CPSI, EVP, DECK, STMP, and  EXPE. Reporting last night: DDIC down 8.6%, DECK up 3.5%, EXPE up 8.6%, NANO down 5%, SYNA up 1.5%, TNAV down 37%, and VECO down 4.6%. Reporting this morning: AGP down 20% and AFSI down 1.3%.

Thursday New Highs

There were 42 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name	Stocks	NH	Percent
Cleaning Products	6	1	16.67
Sporting Activities	6	1	16.67
Cigarettes	7	1	14.29
Beverages - Brewers	9	1	11.11
Drug Stores	9	1	11.11
Sporting Goods	10	1	10
Multimedia & Graphics Software	23	2	8.7
Auto Dealerships	12	1	8.33
Consumer Services	12	1	8.33
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services	42	3	7.14
Textile - Apparel Clothing	28	2	7.14

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers				Decliners
Ticker	Relative Volume	Change		Ticker	Relative Volume	Change
SINO	7.92	12.73%		MILL	12.15	-23.30%
BAS	5.97	0.58%		GT	3.21	-7.22%
CROX	4.46	15.55%		CRR	2.43	-6.73%
CLUB	3.66	24.25%		IDCC	2.09	-2.90%
SODA	1.86	8.82%		VHC	1.54	-2.73%
DECK	1.77	1.17%
CBOU	1.66	3.75%
AGP	1.64	1.32%

I have 7 reports due after the close, these are the tickers followed by after hours trading: TNAV down 33%, NANO down 12.7%, EXPE up 4.5%, VECO down 4.7%, SYNA down 5%, DDIC not trading, and DECK down 2.2%.