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Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Wednesday New Highs

There were 70 new highs today, here is the list.

Here are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Percent
Auto Parts Stores 5 1 20
Cleaning Products 5 1 20
Personal Products 18 3 16.67
Discount, Variety Stores 13 2 15.38
Gas Utilities 33 5 15.15
Diversified Utilities 27 4 14.81
Basic Materials Wholesale 8 1 12.5
Internet Service Providers 8 1 12.5
REIT - Residential 24 3 12.5
Electric Utilities 52 6 11.54

These are the high volume advancers and decliners from the relative strength list:

Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
MITK 4.42 13.47%
FCFS 1.56 -0.47%
PSMT 1.56 2.59%
ACTG 1.6 -0.48%
MAKO 1.98 1.50%
REGN 1.77 -0.72%
MLI 1.69 1.03%
RIC 2.67 -1.00%
JAZZ 2.03 0.92%
DY 1.61 -2.41%
IACI 1.51 0.61%
MNRO 1.58 -2.42%
WTSLA 1.78 0.60%
DLTR 1.93 -2.62%




PANL 1.56 -3.61%




HANS 3.25 -4.76%




CVV 3.23 -4.90%




TNH 3.05 -5.97%




RGR 5.12 -6.36%

I have the only confirmed report for this week, COO, reporting after the close, and it is up 1.6% in after hours trading.

Early Resistance

Somebody pressed a button and knocked the market into positive territory at the last minute, otherwis we might have had a pretty nasty reversal to the downside. This morning we had a very strong rally that went right into 1230, where we apparently hit some resistance, just short of the 50dema (the simple average is now just above 1250). What the late buying prevented was a change in the Elder impulse chart, which possibly would have gone blue, but as it is now, it is still green, and MACD histogram is still rising. This may or may not turn into a bull trap, but if you were watching the leading stocks today, you saw several collapses, so we may have just hit a top for now. 
The Nasdaq was going to be the first to test resistance, and so far it has failed. It was rejected after briefly breaking through, and closed below the open, sending CMF back negative. We still have the green bar here, an MACD histogram rose as well, but may be about as high as it is going to go for now.


The Russell 2000 has a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the market, and today did not help it at all. It did successfully test the prior resistance, which is now support, but is way off the next level of resistance, and is now about to contend with the 50dema.

Ticker Relative Strength Index (14)
XLU 59.22
XLP 56.8
XLV 55.67
XLY 53.42
XLB 51.63
XLI 51.28
XLK 51.05
XLF 50.32
XLE 50.08





Here are the sectors ranked by RSI. There aren;t too many changes from lst week, the biggest being XLE dropping to last place.



XLU has actually had the lowest gain among the sectors for the last week, but it was good enough for it to hold on to first place. This may actually gain relative is the market is topping out here and starting a pullback. It is close to breaking out to a new high, but I think that is going to be a major struggle.

XLE slipped into last place because it was only the 4th best performing sector this week (the best was XLF, which kept it pout of last place). one of the signs of a weak rally is that the weakest sectors make the biggest moves up, and we are certainly seeing that now. this is now right up against some serious resistance, so how it behaves tomorrow may very well tell us about the immediate future direction of the market.

We may be now seeing the resistance I was expecting at 1250. We may fight through it for a while, but ultimately believe we will fail somewhere in here, just in time for September, historically the worst month of the year for stocks. We might be in for another wild ride.


FUEL

FUEL is not very heavily traded, so the chart pattern is a little rough around the edges, but it was one of the few successful breakouts today. The price relative line hit a 6 month high early this month, which was telling us something was up here.

TAYD

TAYD is even worse from a thinly traded perspective, and although the price relative did break out before price, it really isn;t that impressive. The chart pattern isn't that good, even adjusting for the low volume, and i do not trust straight off the bottom breakouts. I would be surprised if this went much higher in the near future.

Today's Leading Industry


Here are the industries with 70% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 8% or more of their stock making new highs.

I fudged the lists a little bit to get REIT-Residential on both lists. This is still a leading industry, despite the pounding it has taken in the last month. It now appears to be regaining it's footing. Most of the charts in this group look similar: very big gouges in the charts, followed by a bounce back up, the stronger stocks bouncing to at or near new highs. In hindsight, this probably was the group to get into when the market turned.

Market Leadership

Ticker 50-Day Simple Moving Average 52-Week High Relative Strength Index (14) Change Change from Open Gap Relative Volume
RGR 36.64% -3.01% 75.34 -1.91% -3.06% 1.18% 3.68
HANS 6.03% -6.67% 54.14 -5.98% -6.06% 0.08% 3.63
PSMT 15.93% 0.57% 64.89 1.88% 0.78% 1.10% 1.44
CF 17.72% -4.63% 64.29 -3.17% -4.20% 1.08% 1.21
CMG 1.04% -6.55% 54.74 1.29% 0.50% 0.79% 1.02
AAPL 5.13% -4.52% 56.86 -0.97% -1.22% 0.25% 1.01
AG 13.72% -9.82% 62.57 0.21% -0.53% 0.74% 0.94
LULU -0.50% -12.85% 53.91 0.23% -1.37% 1.62% 0.93
HLF 1.60% -9.61% 54.94 2.11% 1.06% 1.04% 0.87
CROX 2.76% -14.11% 51.78 -1.38% -2.48% 1.13% 0.85
QCOR 9.37% -7.69% 56.97 0.87% -0.30% 1.17% 0.83
MA 6.36% -3.27% 54.83 -0.14% -1.10% 0.97% 0.64
BKI 4.33% -5.72% 57.33 0.07% -0.86% 0.94% 0.48
ZAGG 3.94% -11.70% 53.7 -1.31% -3.21% 1.96% 0.46

It looks like trouble may be developing on the leadership list. We have high volume reversals in RGR, HANS, and CF, and these are probably going to be increasing in volatility. PSMT is still moving up after it's recent breakout. CMG is making a move above the 50dma, LULU is moving below it's. New highs: RGR and PSMT.

Here is a link to the charts.


Early Industry Leaders

Name Stocks NH Pct
Auto Parts Stores 5 1 20
Cleaning Products 5 1 20
Personal Products 18 3 16.67
Discount, Variety Stores 13 2 15.38
Internet Service Providers 8 1 12.5
Beverages - Brewers 9 1 11.11
Beverages - Soft Drinks 18 2 11.11
Diversified Utilities 27 3 11.11
Nonmetallic Mineral Mining 10 1 10
Sporting Goods 10 1 10
Electric Utilities 52 5 9.62
Gas Utilities 33 3 9.09
Healthcare Information Services 12 1 8.33
REIT - Residential 24 2 8.33
Catalog & Mail Order Houses 14 1 7.14
Metal Fabrication 15 1 6.67
Agricultural Chemicals 16 1 6.25
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services 41 2 4.88
Telecom Services - Domestic 21 1 4.76
Heavy Construction 23 1 4.35
Computer Peripherals 25 1 4
Multimedia & Graphics Software 25 1 4

Here are the early leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs.

Price Relative Scans

I have about 780 stocks hitting new highs in price relative yesterday, which tells me that a problem I though I had solved is not solved: I want to scan for breakouts in price relative, and I am still picking up those that have previously broken out. I will try to get that solved before the beginning of next week,which by that time I should have plenty of data to work with.

On the other spreadsheet I have new price relative highs on BKI, CF, HANS, RGR, and PSMT

Today's Pivot Points

Floor
Woodie's
Camarilla
Demark
R3 1247.75 R2 1234.76 R4 1226.3 High 1216.51
R2 1233.93 R1 1225.09 R3 1219.61 Low 1192.18
R1 1223.42 P 1210.43 R2 1217.38

P 1209.6 S1 1200.76 R1 1215.15

S1 1199.09 S2 1186.1 S1 1210.69

S2 1185.27

S2 1208.46

S3 1174.76

S3 1206.23





S4 1199.54


Wednesday Morning Update

This is a bit of a surprise, not that we are going higher, but that we are currently screaming higher. Apparently the "no resistance" zone between 1210 and 1250 really is no resistance. Once again, I am having trouble picking out pivot points, as I always do when the market goes straight up (or down). Today's leading sector is XLI, with XLB, XLE, and XLF bunched together in second place. Lagging are XLU, XLP and XLK. Hmmm, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are both lagging, the Russell quite badly.oil is up, gold is down, treasury yields up and rising. Normally that is a bullish prognosis, but watch that Russell.

I have 46 new highs and counting so far, with breakouts in JAZZ, MAKO, and WTSLA. I guess yesterday wass the big day for breakouts. I am still waiting for reports from CVGW and BRID, but nothing so far.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Tuesday New Highs

There were 62 new highs today, here is the list.

These are the top 10 industries in percentage of stocks making new highs:

Name Stocks NH Percent
Discount, Variety Stores 13 3 23.08
Auto Parts Stores 5 1 20
Cleaning Products 5 1 20
Beverages - Soft Drinks 18 3 16.67
Personal Products 18 3 16.67
Air Services, Other 7 1 14.29
Surety & Title Insurance 7 1 14.29
Agricultural Chemicals 16 2 12.5
Internet Service Providers 8 1 12.5
Small Tools & Accessories 8 1 12.5

Thee are the high volume advancers and decliners form the relative strength list:


Advancers


Decliners

Ticker Relative Volume Change
Ticker Relative Volume Change
CVV 3.85 2.08%
PANL 2.88 -0.62%
MNRO 3.76 2.82%
DLTR 1.76 -0.64%
RIC 3.47 16.38%
TUP 1.69 -0.05%
RGR 2.88 4.16%
AEA 1.58 -1.49%
JAZZ 2.17 6.25%
CNK 1.55 -0.24%
TNH 1.99 3.46%



NUS 1.94 5.62%



FCFS 1.9 3.62%



PSMT 1.84 3.25%



FNF 1.81 3.34%



MITK 1.78 5.35%



DPZ 1.77 1.93%



AKRX 1.73 1.16%



AFSI 1.72 2.03%



ACTG 1.63 4.30%




I have no earnings reports after the close.

Market Disconnect

 Today may not have been tht impressive, but it certainly could have been a lot worse. The market was in the process of tanking after teh Conference Board consumer confidence numbers came h=out haf an hour into the seesion, but what that did instead was cement a support level at 1195. We rallied from there, propelled in the afternoon by the release of the FOMC minutes, in which a near panicky Fed is contemplating several steps to take, nn of which will fix anything but the markets. However, that is exacly what the market is looking for. I am still looking for a test of simple 50dma, which is now abot 1258 and dropping  (the exponential average is about 20 points below it, so we will tet that first). MACD histogram is still rising, so I do not expect any sudden reversal, but sudden reversal never are expected.

 
Crude oil is working it's way back up, but is now facing it's first real resistance level, and is also coming near the 50dema. this will rise if stocks rise, and won;t if stocks don't. 

 Gold, on the other hand, seems to be in a world of it's own, ignoring every other market out there. It came down to perfectly test the bottom of it's current trading range. I do not expect a breakout any time soon, as gold has a history of staying in trading ranges for months. but, as I said, this is now in a world of it's own.

The ten year treasury has done a whole lot of nothing after it collapsed late in July. The small size of the move up shows the bond market is not nearly as optimistic about the Fed's ability to fix things as the stock market is. I don't argue with these guys.


Also doing a whole lot of nothing is the dollar. This should have been rising while the market was screaming down, but it didn't. It is also not collapsing as the market is rallying. Something is disconnected here, and I hope it doesn't cause trouble in the future. So far, it hasn't, at least that I can see.

I read some of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, and was struck by two points: the FOMC is "comcerned" about the lack of progress in the recovery (read "panicking"), and there is an increased level of dissatisfaction among the dissenting FOMC members, who seem to feel the Fed is wasting time. The next meeting will be very interesting.

I will have the new highs update shortly.





PSMT

PSMT was already a leading stock when it became the second of the discount and variety stores group to break out in as many days. This actually has one of the weaker price relative lines we have looked at recently, but it still  broke out before price. This look like a double bottom pattern, which would have an O'Neil breakout point at the blue horizontal line (which means you would have bought it yesterday), but I don't believe the pattern is long enough to be a valid double bottom. It still looks quite impressive, though.

DG

The third of the discount stores to break out, DG broke out big on earnings, but price relative broke out nearly 3 weeks ago. CMF has risen dramatically since this hit the bottom of it's latest base, which broke the 200dma. I'm not thrilled with the rising ATR line for the last month, but the overall market volatility most likely has had the biggest influence on that.

NUS


NUS had a nice little breakout today a few days after a breakout in price relative, which held steady while price was dropping. I did not see a reason for the high relative volume, but I suspect it got targeted by high frequency traders when it hit a new high.

Today's Leading Industry

Here are the industries that have 75% or more of their stocks advancing today.

Here are the industries with 10% or more of their stocks making new highs.


There are a lot of industries with high 40 week averages making advances today, so those may be groups that are regaining some strength. Discount and variety stores is not a leading group, and according to it's graph it has been in a weakening trend for about 2 years. It does, however, have a proportionally high nunber of stocks making new highs. DLTR broke out yesterday, and today we have breakouts in PSMT and DG, but the rest of the group is still pretty weak. However, they have shown a tendency to move as a group, so several of the lagging stocks may provide some opportunities here.

Idiot Of The Week

This week's lucky winner, George Will, who criticized Obama for the "hurricane hype" surrounding Hurricane Irene.

I guess the damage done and the people killed were not enough to satisfy him. Perhaps the next one will do a better job.

Market Leadership

Ticker 50-Day Simple Moving Average 52-Week High Relative Strength Index (14) Change Change from Open Gap Relative Volume
RGR 38.69% 2.34% 79.06 2.37% 2.31% 0.06% 2.94
PSMT 12.48% 1.10% 61.88 1.46% 2.79% -1.29% 1.65
AG 13.16% -10.90% 62.16 4.81% 3.23% 1.53% 1.09
CF 21.21% -0.38% 69.96 -0.33% 0.64% -0.97% 1.06
CMG -0.56% -8.24% 52.35 1.40% 1.59% -0.18% 0.92
HANS 12.94% 0.25% 65.11 0.36% 0.53% -0.17% 0.89
QCOR 6.80% -10.28% 53.94 2.58% 2.26% 0.31% 0.85
AAPL 6.29% -3.86% 58.86 -0.28% 0.16% -0.44% 0.77
MA 5.82% -4.14% 53.69 -0.31% 0.31% -0.62% 0.76
HLF -1.26% -12.24% 51.22 -0.41% 0.24% -0.65% 0.76
CROX 3.59% -13.64% 52.62 -0.78% 0.68% -1.45% 0.72
LULU -1.62% -14.06% 52.95 0.33% 1.55% -1.19% 0.71
BKI 3.31% -6.94% 56.01 0.22% 0.63% -0.40% 0.67
ZAGG 5.64% -10.64% 55.57 1.80% 0.73% 1.07% 0.45

On the leadership list, RGR is, I suspect, in the midst of a climax run here. I think it has a pretty good chance of hitting 38, but it also has a strong chance of collapsing at any time. PSMT is staging a breakout. AG is coming off the 50dma, and CF is continuing it's recent strong move. New highs: RGR, PSMT, CF, HANS.

Here is a link to the charts.

Breakouts


Here are this morning's top 4 relative volume breakouts. DG is the only one on earnings.

Early Industry Leaders

Name Stocks NH Pct
Discount, Variety Stores 13 3 23.08
Auto Parts Stores 5 1 20
Air Services, Other 7 1 14.29
Agricultural Chemicals 16 2 12.5
Internet Service Providers 8 1 12.5
Beverages - Brewers 9 1 11.11
Sporting Goods 10 1 10
Drug Related Products 11 1 9.09
Beverages - Soft Drinks 18 1 5.56
Grocery Stores 18 1 5.56
Personal Products 18 1 5.56
Rubber & Plastics 18 1 5.56
Investment Brokerage - National 22 1 4.55
Multimedia & Graphics Software 25 1 4
Internet Software & Services 29 1 3.45
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 30 1 3.33
Diversified Communication Services 34 1 2.94
Auto Parts 36 1 2.78
Aerospace/Defense Products & Services 41 1 2.44
Semiconductor - Specialized 42 1 2.38
Apparel Stores 45 1 2.22
Gold 50 1 2
Electric Utilities 52 1 1.92
Biotechnology 164 1 0.61

Here are the early industry leaders in percentage of stocks making new highs. Discount and variety stores has come out of nowhere and looks like the industry to lead today.

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